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Arizona Cardinals (3-5) at Seattle Seahawks (6-2)
Line: Seahawks by 7. Total: 45.
Sunday, Nov. 9, 4:05 PM
The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.
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SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks looked like the best team in the NFL on Sunday night. Their offense scored on every single first-half possession, with Sam Darnold completing his first 17 passes. Seattle simply put on a clinic.
It won’t be so easy for the Seahawks to repeat that against the Cardinals, even with Rashid Shaheed joining the team. Arizona isn’t known as a strong defense, but the team had the 13th-ranked EPA defense heading into Week 9. This is a far cry from where the Redskins are ranked, which is 29th. The Cardinals are particularly strong versus the run, ranked fourth in that regard. This is a big deal, given that the Seahawks rely on the run so much.
Darnold has been great, so putting the clamps on the Seahawks passing offense is crucial as well. The Cardinals have a decent secondary, so they’ll be able to limit Seattle’s pass catchers. The pass rush also seems to be better with Walter Nolen joining the team, so Darnold won’t have nearly as much time as he enjoyed on Sunday night.
ARIZONA OFFENSE: It’s hilarious how perceived narratives have suddenly changed concerning Arizona’s offense. Trey McBride was seen as someone who couldn’t score touchdowns, yet he has become a touchdown machine ever since Jacoby Brissett took over for the injured Kyler Murray. Marvin Harrison Jr., meanwhile, was seen as a colossal bust thus far, yet he had an amazing performance against the Cowboys on Monday night. It’s almost as if McBride and Harrison weren’t to blame.
It’s unclear if Brissett will play over Murray once again. I wrote last week that I preferred Brissett to Murray, but that isn’t quite the case this week. I wouldn’t say I’d rather have Murray either, but backup quarterbacks, while very effective against bad defenses, struggle versus top competition. The Seahawks are fifth in defensive EPA, so they certainly qualify as top competition.
An elite defense like the Seahawks can dismantle one-dimensional offenses. The Cardinals have had one ever since losing both James Conner and Trey Benson, and it’s not like either was that great this year anyway. The stout Seattle defense won’t sweat to clamp down on Bam Knight or Ball Dropper Demercado, and its great pass rush will make life difficult for Arizona’s quarterback.
RECAP: The Seahawks have owned the Cardinals. They’ve defeated them in eight consecutive meetings. It was a three-point game back in Week 4, but most of the other scores have been more lopsided. The margin of victory otherwise has been 12, 10, 1, 10, 10, 10, and 8. Seven is right on the cusp of those results.
I’m going to side with the Seahawks once again. They match up extremely well with the Cardinals, which is why they’ve defeated them in eight consecutive meetings. Their stellar defense will disrupt a one-dimensional offense, so Arizona won’t score very much. Their offense is good enough to score consistently against Arizona’s slightly above-average defense.
Also, consider that the Cardinals are going to be operating on a short week. Teams have struggled mightily following Monday night games this year, going just 8-15 against the spread as long as there is no impending bye week. The Cardinals are inferior compared to the Seahawks and need all the time they can get to pull the upset, but they won’t have that luxury this week.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jacoby Brissett has been named the starter. He’s been better than Kyler Murray, but hasn’t faced a top-10 defense like Seattle’s yet. Backup quarterbacks tend to struggle against top-10 defenses.
SATURDAY NOTES: The Cardinals will be without two starting cornerbacks in this game. That’s not a positive outlook against a quarterback who completed his first 17 passes last week. I’m bumping the unit count up to four.
PLAYER PROPS: Seattle cannot stop tight ends at all. We’re going to continue to bet tight ends against them. The best number for Trey McBride is over 62.5 -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m hoping we can get a -6.5 line again, but I don’t think we will.
The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Spread. Edge: None.
WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -5.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -6.
Computer Model: Seahawks -9.
The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.
Decent action on the Seahawks.
Percentage of money on Seattle: 72% (110,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.
Seahawks -7 (4 Units)
Over 45 (0 Units)
Player Prop: Trey McBride over 62.5 receiving yards -114 (1 Unit) – FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel
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