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Los Angeles Rams (6-2) at San Francisco 49ers (6-3)
Line: Rams by 5.5. Total: 49.5.
Sunday, Nov. 9, 4:25 PM
The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

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LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Rams lost to the 49ers a few weeks ago, but it’s not like they played poorly offensively. They gained 456 yards of offense and averaged 7.1 yards per play. The reason they scored just 23 points is that they repeatedly shot themselves in the foot and failed to convert short-yardage opportunities.
The matchup against the 49ers is even easier this time. Fred Warner and Bryce Huff were on the field for San Francisco in the prior matchup, but they may both miss this game. We know Warner will, while Huff has missed the past two games. Everyone knows who Warner is, and how great he is, but Huff played a vital role on this team when healthy. He had the most pressures on the team in the wake of Nick Bosa’s injury. With Bosa and Huff both sidelined, the 49ers can’t generate any pressure on the quarterback. Matthew Stafford, who is already protected very well, will have all afternoon to expose San Francisco’s secondary.
The Rams won’t be able to run the ball as well. The 49ers have a pass-funnel defense because of all their injuries, but they’re solid against the run. They rank seventh in that regard, so they should be able to put the clamps on Kyren Williams and Blake Corum.
SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers, naturally, will try to keep the ball in Christian McCaffrey’s hands as much as possible. McCaffrey will have his usual gains through the air, but it’s unclear how effective he’ll be on the ground. The Rams have been both strong and weak against the rush at various points this year, most recently shutting down the run against the Jaguars and Saints.
It seems unlikely that the 49ers will be able to generate a consistent passing attack. Mac Jones had a solid performance against the Rams in the first matchup between the teams, but it seemed as though Los Angeles took the 49ers lightly because of the quarterback situation. The Rams have a stellar pass rush, which spells trouble for a San Francisco offensive line that is right on the border of being among the top 10 of pressures allowed.
Jones, as a result, doesn’t project to do well in this game. Two weeks ago, he struggled to do much of anything against Houston’s defense. The Rams generate even more pressure on the quarterback.
RECAP: The Rams took the 49ers lightly in the first meeting between the teams. That’s unlikely to happen again, given that San Francisco won the first matchup.
Assuming the Rams bring 100-percent intensity to this game, they should be able to win fairly easily. Their offense won’t face any resistance against the 49ers’ skeleton-crew defense. Their elite pass rush, meanwhile, will bother Jones and force some sacks and turnovers.
I love the Rams in this matchup, and I’m a fan of the line value as well. I wish we were still getting the -3 on the advance line, but -3.5 is still good. I personally made this number -5.5. The 49ers are only +3.5 because of their record, which gives us a good opportunity to fade the horrible Bill Parcells quote that goes, “You are what your record is,” which is a complete fallacy.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: As someone backing the Rams, something I didn’t want to see was Bryce Huff practicing. Huff, unfortunately, practiced on a limited basis on Wednesday. If Huff plays, I still like the Rams, but not by as much. I’m going to drop the projected unit count to two.
SATURDAY NOTES: Puka Nacua doesn’t have an injury designation. Neither does Bryce Huff. However, I still like the Rams, as their defense should still be able to dismantle San Francisco’s offense.
SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This line has moved to -6 in some sportsbooks. The sharps have been betting the Rams.
The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Spread. Edge: Rams.
WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -5.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -3.
Computer Model: Rams -5.
The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

Equal action.
Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 53% (116,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Rams.

Rams -5.5 (3 Units)
Under 49.5 (0 Units)
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