The Matchup. Edge: Steelers.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is the third part of my Walt Goes to Vegas series, where I discuss all the crazy responses to my Money Laundering t-shirt.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: There’s a big difference between how the Chargers performed in the first three weeks of the season, plus the Thursday night game against the Vikings, and how they struggled in other games. This is because Joe Alt has been out for those other contests. I loved the Chargers last week against the Titans, but one of the very unlucky elements to that game was Alt suffering an injury in the second quarter.

Alt won’t be back, which is far from ideal for Herbert. The Steelers’ pass rush just exploded against the Colts, so that obviously bodes very poorly for Herbert. The Chargers couldn’t even pass protect against Washington’s pedestrian pass rush when Alt was sidelined, so I don’t expect Herbert to see much time against T.J. Watt and company.

Herbert will be hoping that Kimani Vidal can ease some pressure off of him, but that doesn’t seem likely. Vidal couldn’t find any running room last week with multiple offensive linemen out, and we just saw the Steelers put the clamps on Jonathan Taylor.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Several weeks ago, I would have liked the Steelers’ chances of scoring against the Chargers defense. Things have changed for the better for the Chargers, however, so Pittsburgh won’t have much success this week.

The big additions that the Chargers have had recently are Khalil Mack and Denzel Perryman being back from injury. Mack strengthens the pass rush, and we all know that the Steelers don’t protect very well. Aaron Rodgers certainly does, which is why he releases the ball quickly. This negates pressures, but also makes it difficult to maintain consistent drives.

Perryman, meanwhile, can clamp down on the run. Jaylen Warren was able to rush well against the Colts, but won’t find nearly as much room against the Chargers.

RECAP: The Chargers are in rough shape with Alt sidelined once again. Without Alt, the Chargers will not be able to pass protect against the Steelers, who were able to hound Daniel Jones behind his superior blocking unit. Watt and the rest of the Steelers will disrupt Herbert’s passing ability.

Given that the Chargers are much worse without Alt, I love the Steelers in this spot. The oddsmakers haven’t made enough of an adjustment to the line because of the Alt injury as a result of the public being clueless about the situation. The advance spread was -4.5 and has been moved to -3, but this isn’t enough of a shift. I made this line Chargers -1, which is being generous because I gave the Chargers one point for being at home. The Chargers, as we know, have no home-field advantage. There are going to be more Steeler fans in the stands than Charger fans. Steeler fans travel better than most teams, so it’ll be bad enough where Herbert will have to go to a silent count. Given the makeshift nature of the offensive line, this could be extremely problematic.

This is my top play of the week. We’re able to fade an injured team, side with the squad that has the better matchup, and receive line value. The Steelers look great here, and I’m considering them to be my October NFL Pick of the Month.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The vig is rising on Pittsburgh, indicating a potential move to +2.5. Chargers backup right tackle Bobby Hart missed Wednesday’s practice, which is further bad news for their horrible offensive line.

SATURDAY NOTES: Bobby Hart is out, so the Chargers will be down their top three tackles. That’s not good against a healthier Steelers front seven. I love the Steelers, but wish we were still getting the opening line of +3.5. The sharps made sure us peons wouldn’t be able to bet that number.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The best +3 line is currently +3 -112 at Caesars. I’ll think about locking this in later in the afternoon.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Steelers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -4.5.

Computer Model: Chargers -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.

Looks like sharp action driving this line down.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 70% (69,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

Mike Tomlin is 65-37 ATS as an underdog.

Aaron Rodgers is 138-102 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 33-25 ATS as an underdog.

Opening Line: Chargers -3.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Steelers.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is the third part of my Walt Goes to Vegas series, where I discuss all the crazy responses to my Money Laundering t-shirt.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: There’s a big difference between how the Chargers performed in the first three weeks of the season, plus the Thursday night game against the Vikings, and how they struggled in other games. This is because Joe Alt has been out for those other contests. I loved the Chargers last week against the Titans, but one of the very unlucky elements to that game was Alt suffering an injury in the second quarter.

Alt won’t be back, which is far from ideal for Herbert. The Steelers’ pass rush just exploded against the Colts, so that obviously bodes very poorly for Herbert. The Chargers couldn’t even pass protect against Washington’s pedestrian pass rush when Alt was sidelined, so I don’t expect Herbert to see much time against T.J. Watt and company.

Herbert will be hoping that Kimani Vidal can ease some pressure off of him, but that doesn’t seem likely. Vidal couldn’t find any running room last week with multiple offensive linemen out, and we just saw the Steelers put the clamps on Jonathan Taylor.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Several weeks ago, I would have liked the Steelers’ chances of scoring against the Chargers defense. Things have changed for the better for the Chargers, however, so Pittsburgh won’t have much success this week.

The big additions that the Chargers have had recently are Khalil Mack and Denzel Perryman being back from injury. Mack strengthens the pass rush, and we all know that the Steelers don’t protect very well. Aaron Rodgers certainly does, which is why he releases the ball quickly. This negates pressures, but also makes it difficult to maintain consistent drives.

Perryman, meanwhile, can clamp down on the run. Jaylen Warren was able to rush well against the Colts, but won’t find nearly as much room against the Chargers.

RECAP: The Chargers are in rough shape with Alt sidelined once again. Without Alt, the Chargers will not be able to pass protect against the Steelers, who were able to hound Daniel Jones behind his superior blocking unit. Watt and the rest of the Steelers will disrupt Herbert’s passing ability.

Given that the Chargers are much worse without Alt, I love the Steelers in this spot. The oddsmakers haven’t made enough of an adjustment to the line because of the Alt injury as a result of the public being clueless about the situation. The advance spread was -4.5 and has been moved to -3, but this isn’t enough of a shift. I made this line Chargers -1, which is being generous because I gave the Chargers one point for being at home. The Chargers, as we know, have no home-field advantage. There are going to be more Steeler fans in the stands than Charger fans. Steeler fans travel better than most teams, so it’ll be bad enough where Herbert will have to go to a silent count. Given the makeshift nature of the offensive line, this could be extremely problematic.

This is my top play of the week. We’re able to fade an injured team, side with the squad that has the better matchup, and receive line value. The Steelers look great here, and I’m considering them to be my October NFL Pick of the Month.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The vig is rising on Pittsburgh, indicating a potential move to +2.5. Chargers backup right tackle Bobby Hart missed Wednesday’s practice, which is further bad news for their horrible offensive line.

SATURDAY NOTES: Bobby Hart is out, so the Chargers will be down their top three tackles. That’s not good against a healthier Steelers front seven. I love the Steelers, but wish we were still getting the opening line of +3.5. The sharps made sure us peons wouldn’t be able to bet that number.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The best +3 line is currently +3 -112 at Caesars. I’ll think about locking this in later in the afternoon.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Steelers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -4.5.

Computer Model: Chargers -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.

Looks like sharp action driving this line down.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 70% (69,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

Mike Tomlin is 65-37 ATS as an underdog.

Aaron Rodgers is 138-102 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 33-25 ATS as an underdog.

Opening Line: Chargers -3.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Steelers.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is the third part of my Walt Goes to Vegas series, where I discuss all the crazy responses to my Money Laundering t-shirt.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: There’s a big difference between how the Chargers performed in the first three weeks of the season, plus the Thursday night game against the Vikings, and how they struggled in other games. This is because Joe Alt has been out for those other contests. I loved the Chargers last week against the Titans, but one of the very unlucky elements to that game was Alt suffering an injury in the second quarter.

Alt won’t be back, which is far from ideal for Herbert. The Steelers’ pass rush just exploded against the Colts, so that obviously bodes very poorly for Herbert. The Chargers couldn’t even pass protect against Washington’s pedestrian pass rush when Alt was sidelined, so I don’t expect Herbert to see much time against T.J. Watt and company.

Herbert will be hoping that Kimani Vidal can ease some pressure off of him, but that doesn’t seem likely. Vidal couldn’t find any running room last week with multiple offensive linemen out, and we just saw the Steelers put the clamps on Jonathan Taylor.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Several weeks ago, I would have liked the Steelers’ chances of scoring against the Chargers defense. Things have changed for the better for the Chargers, however, so Pittsburgh won’t have much success this week.

The big additions that the Chargers have had recently are Khalil Mack and Denzel Perryman being back from injury. Mack strengthens the pass rush, and we all know that the Steelers don’t protect very well. Aaron Rodgers certainly does, which is why he releases the ball quickly. This negates pressures, but also makes it difficult to maintain consistent drives.

Perryman, meanwhile, can clamp down on the run. Jaylen Warren was able to rush well against the Colts, but won’t find nearly as much room against the Chargers.

RECAP: The Chargers are in rough shape with Alt sidelined once again. Without Alt, the Chargers will not be able to pass protect against the Steelers, who were able to hound Daniel Jones behind his superior blocking unit. Watt and the rest of the Steelers will disrupt Herbert’s passing ability.

Given that the Chargers are much worse without Alt, I love the Steelers in this spot. The oddsmakers haven’t made enough of an adjustment to the line because of the Alt injury as a result of the public being clueless about the situation. The advance spread was -4.5 and has been moved to -3, but this isn’t enough of a shift. I made this line Chargers -1, which is being generous because I gave the Chargers one point for being at home. The Chargers, as we know, have no home-field advantage. There are going to be more Steeler fans in the stands than Charger fans. Steeler fans travel better than most teams, so it’ll be bad enough where Herbert will have to go to a silent count. Given the makeshift nature of the offensive line, this could be extremely problematic.

This is my top play of the week. We’re able to fade an injured team, side with the squad that has the better matchup, and receive line value. The Steelers look great here, and I’m considering them to be my October NFL Pick of the Month.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The vig is rising on Pittsburgh, indicating a potential move to +2.5. Chargers backup right tackle Bobby Hart missed Wednesday’s practice, which is further bad news for their horrible offensive line.

SATURDAY NOTES: Bobby Hart is out, so the Chargers will be down their top three tackles. That’s not good against a healthier Steelers front seven. I love the Steelers, but wish we were still getting the opening line of +3.5. The sharps made sure us peons wouldn’t be able to bet that number.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The best +3 line is currently +3 -112 at Caesars. I’ll think about locking this in later in the afternoon.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps were on the Steelers earlier in the week, but have come in pretty hard on the Chargers. I’m not sure why, but I’m glad to get +3.5 -117 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Steelers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -4.5.

Computer Model: Chargers -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.

Looks like sharp action driving this line down.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 66% (149,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

Mike Tomlin is 65-37 ATS as an underdog.

Aaron Rodgers is 138-102 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 33-25 ATS as an underdog.

Opening Line: Chargers -3.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Dome.