2024 NFL Picks – Week 5: Cardinals at 49ers

The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: All of the 49er receiver stars weren’t supposed to be back this soon. George Kittle was supposed to be out for several weeks, while Deebo Samuel was expected to be sidelined for six weeks. Yet, both returned this past Sunday. With Trent Williams also available, Brock Purdy torched the hapless Patriots with constant deep balls.

It could be argued that last week’s game was an incredibly easy matchup for Purdy, given that the Patriots are the No. 1 pass-funnel defense in the NFL. While this is true, it’s also valid to say that this is a great matchup, too. The Cardinals have a pitiful secondary that had no chance to stop anything the Redskins were doing last week. They had immense difficulty defending Olamide Zaccheaus.

Making matters worse for the Cardinals, they are horrible at stopping the run. Jeremy McNichols looked like the second coming of Walter Payton against them last week, so how will they possibly defend Jordan Mason?

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Cardinals clearly won’t be able to stop the 49ers, so they’ll have to outscore them in a shootout. This may not seem possible, given Arizona’s meager 14-point output last week, but it certainly is, given the 49ers’ injury issues on this side of the ball.

While the 49ers have gotten all of their passing weapons back, they lost another key member of their stop unit, as Fred Warner got hurt last week. Warner is one of the top linebackers in the NFL, so his absence will be enormous, especially given that the other primary linebacker, Dre Greenlaw, is also unavailable. The 49ers will be weaker to the run as a result. Stopping pass-catching running backs will also be an issue, so James Conner projects extremely well.

Warner’s injury is extremely impactful for the 49ers because they already had issues versus opposing aerial attacks. This aspect was not tested last week because the Patriots don’t have viable outside threats, but the Cardinals obviously do. Marvin Harrison Jr. has shown flashes of brilliance thus far, and he could have another huge game against the weak San Francisco cornerbacks.

RECAP: The 49ers just crushed the Patriots with all of their weapons back from injury. I think this means that people believe that they’ll treat the Cardinals similarly, but I don’t see it that way.

New England is the worst team in the NFL. The Cardinals most certainly are not. They’re not a good team, but they’re OK. The net EPA numbers say that they’re 22nd in the NFL. They destroyed the Rams in Week 2 and then hung tight with Detroit the following Sunday. They can compete with the better teams, especially if their opponent is dealing with injuries or distractions.

The 49ers will be experiencing both in this game. Javon Hargrave, Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga were already hurt, and now San Francisco may not have Warner in this game after he got banged up versus New England. The 49ers will also have to overcome an obvious look-ahead situation, given that they have to play against the arch-rival Seahawks in four days. Big favorites are often poor bets prior to Thursday games.

The Cardinals are also appealing in that they are coming off an embarrassing defeat. This is another thing that makes them seem like the correct side in this game. This has been a season comprised of crazy upsets, and Arizona could be the next big underdog to win if the 49ers are caught napping, as predicted.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Fred Warner missed Wednesday’s practice. His absence would fundamentally change San Francisco’s defense. The Cardinals will be a great play if he’s sidelined.

SATURDAY NOTES: Both Fred Warner and George Kittle were DNP-DNP-limited in practice this week. With a game coming up on Thursday, the 49ers may decide to rest those key players. I may go to five units.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It sounds like Fred Warner and George Kittle will play, which is shocking to me because the 49ers have a game in four days. Both players could be limited, so I still love Arizona.

FINAL THOUGHTS: All of the questionable players will be in action, as George Kittle, Fred Warner, and Trey McBride are all active. There’s no sharp action on this game. The best line is +7 -101 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Cardinals.

The 49ers have the Seahawks in four days.

The Spread. Edge: Cardinals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -6.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -7.

Computer Model: 49ers -6.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 57% (122,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

History: 49ers have won the last 4 meetings.

Kyler Murray is 15-8 ATS as an underdog.

Brock Purdy is 21-6 SU, 15-12 ATS.

Opening Line: 49ers -6.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Sunny, 87 degrees. Light wind.