2024 NFL Picks – Week 5: Jets at Vikings

The Matchup. Edge: None.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: It’s astonishing that people seem to be calling for Sam Darnold to win MVP, and not just because he’s not even the MVP of his own team. Darnold was given up for dead by many after he flopped on numerous teams. When J.J. McCarthy suffered a season-ending injury in August, no one gave the Vikings any chance of reaching the playoffs.

Darnold has been phenomenal thus far because of Justin Jefferson and the elite coaching, but he and his support system will be challenged for the first time in this game. The Jets have one of the top pass defenses in the NFL. The outstanding cornerbacks in the “No Fly Zone” will be able to limit Jefferson and Jordan Addison. The team will also throw some looks at Darnold to fool him. Fortunately for Darnold, he’ll at least have time in the pocket because of his elite offensive line.

Darnold will also be able to lean on Aaron Jones. While the Jets are superb versus the pass, they have been gashed on the ground. Jones doesn’t stay healthy often, but when he does, he’s one of the better running backs in the NFL. He’ll be able to capitalize on the Jets’ poor rush defense.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: This is a battle of two elite defenses, as the Vikings rank No. 1 on this side of the ball. Brian Flores is one of the best defensive coordinators in the NFL, and he’s fully capable of confusing quarterbacks.

While Flores has befuddled young quarterbacks like Daniel Jones, Brock Purdy and “No Cookie” Jordan Love this year, he won’t have the same success against Aaron Rodgers, who has been around the block. Rodgers’ biggest issue right now is his lack of chemistry with Garrett Wilson, but the two will find a way to connect at some point this year. I don’t know if it’ll occur this week, but it certainly could. And even if it doesn’t, Rodgers will have plenty of other weapons at his disposal, including Mike Williams, who is seeing an increased workload.

The Jets can also do some damage with their running backs. The Vikings are sixth against the rush, but Breece Hall is capable of going the distance whenever he touches the ball, whether it’s on the ground or through the air.

RECAP: All aboard the Vikings bandwagon! I liked Minnesota early – I’ve picked them to cover the past three weeks – but the hype the team is currently getting is outrageous. There’s crazy talk about Darnold being MVP when he’s not even the MVP of his own team.

The Jets, meanwhile, are being trashed for their loss to the Broncos, but they were not focused as a big favorite with an overseas game on the horizon. The Chiefs lost in a similar spot to the Broncos last year prior to playing Miami in Germany, and then went on to defeat the Dolphins. The Jets will play much better than they did last week, and I like them in this matchup. Rodgers won’t be perplexed by Bowles’ scheme, while Darnold may have issues with a great pass defense.

On top of the matchup edges, we’re also getting line value. The Jets were -1 on the advance spread. This line has moved 3.5 points based off last week’s results, which seems unwarranted. We’re not crossing any key numbers – unless this spread gets to +3, of course – but a movement from -1 to +2.5 is a 7.01-percent marginal difference, which is actually much higher than people think. In other words, an underdog of +2.5 is seven percent more likely to cover at that number than at -1. If you don’t appreciate how colossal seven percent is, think of the difference between winning 50 percent of your bets and 57 percent of your bets over the long term. You go from being a loser to an excellent NFL bettor.

At any rate, I like the Jets, and I was pleased to see that the early sharp money agrees with me. We’re also getting Rodgers off a loss, which has been a huge winning formula over the years.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Sam Darnold was placed on the injury report with a knee. He was full in practice, but it might be something because we’ve seen neferious things like this in the past from some teams. As mentioned earlier, this pick is included in a teaser with the Buccaneers.

PLAYER PROPS: The Vikings blitz at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. Aaron Rodgers will have to throw the ball quickly, so he’ll target Tyler Conklin and Breece Hall heavily. I like the Conklin prop more. The best number is over 23.5 -120 at BetMGM.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s no real injury news on this game, aside from some recently injured Jets still being doubtful. I still like New York, and so do the sharps.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: I’m going to parlay the Conklin receiving prop with Sam Darnold over 0.5 interceptions, Greg Zuerlein over 1.5 field goals, and over 40.5 points. Darnold has thrown interceptions in three of four games, and this is a tough matchup for him. I like going with the winning kicker, given that they’re more likely to kick field goals in the fourth quarter. And given that both offensive lines are stout, I think this game will go over the total. This $25 parlay pays $156.25 on BetMGM.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As I always say ahead of these horrible 9:30 a.m. games, f**k Roger Goodell. This is a public-sharp split, where the public is on the Vikings, while the sharps like the Jets. I was really hoping for a viable +3. Unfortunately, the best I can see is +3 -126 at Bookmaker, which is not a good deal when +2.5 -103 is being offered at the same sportsbook. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Jets.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Vikings -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jets -1.

Computer Model: Vikings -3.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Public on the Vikings, sharps on the Jets.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 72% (371,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.