2024 NFL Picks – Week 5: Saints at Chiefs

The Matchup. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Kansas, home of the Kansas City Chiefs, the fraud team that beat my Philadelphia Eagles in the Super Game only because they cheated and they are butt holes, sorry for cursing, Mother! Tonight, the Saints attempt to avenge the Eagles loss by defeating the sorry Chiefs, and if they don’t take care of business, there will be some serious repercussions, believe me! I’m ready to say mean things about them on social media if Mother lets me on tonight!

Emmitt: Thanks, Edward. You say the Chief cheat hitting a little to close to homeless. When the Dallas Cowboy win the Super Game like five time I think, people say we cheating, and that is why Jerry Johnson fire Jimmy Jones. As the old saying go, cheetahs never prosper because cheetahs the kind of animal that never prosper because he a bird and a manimal at the same time.

Reilly: Emmitt, I just took a biology test in Mother’s home school class, and I can assure you that cheetahs are not birds. They are mammals. Believe me, I got an 95 on the test, and then Mother let me get ice cream for doing so well, especially because I outscored New Daddy. Mind you, this was sugar-free ice cream because I get too hyper when I eat real ice cream, so even though I’m 73, hopefully I’m old enough for the real deal some day.

Tollefson: Reilly, I had one of my female slaves tell me the same thing. She said I get too hyper when I eat too much ice cream, so I made her pay the ultimate price. I clonked her over the head with an iron and then made her clean my bathroom with her toothbrush while naked, and then she had to brush her teeth with that toothbrush! Ha!

Reilly: Tolly, I’d say the punishment fits the crime there, but I’m surprised you didn’t bury her in the woods like with your other failed female slaves.

Tollefson: Oh, that goes without saying. I did this after she brushed her teeth with that filthy toothbrush.

Reilly: Tolly, you never fail to disappoint. Speaking of not disappointing, Charissa Thompson is with another foreign leader tonight! Foreign leaders are constantly joining Charissa to argue for their country hosting international games after Roger Goodell stated that he wants to double the number of international games. Charissa, take it away!

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Mike. Here’s tonight’s injury report. Patrick Mahomes has Covid-19. Derek Carr has Covid-24. Alvin Kamara has Ebola. All are probable for tonight’s game. OK, I’m now joined by some guy, I’m not really sure who he is, but when you’re on my high level of journalism, you don’t need to know who you’re talking to.

Benjamin Netanyahu: Hi, my name is Benjamin Netanyahu. I am the prime minister of Israel. I would like to invite everyone in the NFL community to play an American football game in Israel. It is totally safe for anyone to visit, I promise. The only rockets in Israel are Houston Rocket players who visit for vacation.

Charissa Thompson: Sorry, what did you say your name was? Nintendo Yoo-hoo? What kind of a name is that?

Benjamin Netanyahu: No, it’s- hold on, wait a second. I think I see representatives Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib in the stands. Let me push this button, and, boom! Look at their pagers explode! So wonderful!

Reilly: President Nintendo Yoo-hoo, do you think I could borrow that button and some exploding pagers? I’d like to sneak into the Chiefs locker room and put some pagers in the butts of the players and then press the button. That would make amends for them cheating in the Super Game! President Camel Toe Harris, what do you think about that Nintendo guy’s exploding button? Can we use it to beat the Chiefs?

Kamala Harris: Israel is a country in the Middle East. It exists next to another country called Palenstine, and they are the good guys and Israel are the bad guys. And they’re all in the Middle East because it’s in the middle, and it’s east. When I was raised in a middle class family, I looked at the map we had in our middle-class home, and I asked my daddy, “Why do they call it the Middle East, daddy?” And he said it’s because Israel is evil. And I said, “I wish the Palenstine people had fweedom. I wish they had fweedom.” I said this in my middle-class home, which is a home belonging to a class that’s in the middle.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, once again, my political opponent has no idea what she’s talking about because she’s a total disaster and a total fraud, and she would be a ruler, probably the worst president we’ve ever had in this country, and no one will have seen anything like it, frankly, and Kamala is lying about everything, including class, she says that she was in the middle class, but she’s the lowest class of any person who has ever existed, and believe me, I know a lot about class, no one knows more about class than Trump because Trump is in Kevin Reilly’s mother’s class, and he scored an 85 on the test, which is the highest score anyone can ever score, no one has ever seen anything like it, but Reilly got ice cream and Trump did not, which made Trump very sad, frankly, because Trump loves ice cream, especially the ice cream they have at McDonald’s, which is the best ice cream anyone has ever eaten, no one has ever seen anything like it.

Wolfley: DONALD, YOU SAY NO ONE HAS EVER SEEN ANYTHING LIKE IT, BUT MY EIGHTH COUSIN, AN ABACUS WITH SPAGHETTI FOR A TONGUE AND LIPS FOR EYES SEES EVERYTHING THAT HAS EVER HAPPENED AND WILL EVER HAPPEN. MAYBE THEY’LL MAKE HIM KING BECAUSE HE HAS THE BEST STORY.

Reilly: Shut up, guys! You know who has the best story? Me! Except New Daddy won’t read me stories before bedtime. New Daddy, will you please read me a story before bedtime tonight?

Jay Cutler: Yeah, I wouldn’t want to do anything else in the world.

Reilly: Wow, really? I feel so loved!

Jay Cutler: Huh? Dude, I’m talking on the phone here. My friend just asked me if I want to come over to his house to watch paint dry for eight hours.

Reilly: New Daddy, come on, please, just read me a fairy tale before bedtime!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you are talking about fairy tales, Kevin. I know that because you just mentioned those words, Kevin. Let’s talk about some fairy tales, shall we? Let’s begin with Cinderella, Kevin. Your mother makes you do chores like her, Kevin, but you’ll never meet a prince at a ball, Kevin. What about Snow White, Kevin? Let’s segue into Hansel and Gretel, Kevin. Your mom likes to feed you like the witch did to those kids, Kevin. Care to speak about Jack and the Beanstalk, Kevin? We can touch on Sleeping Beauty, Kevin, except no woman will want to touch you, Kevin. Now, let’s-

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, ALL THE WOMEN WANT TO TOUCH ME, BUT MOTHER SAID SHE HELD A MEETING WITH ALL THE WOMEN AND WARNED THEM NOT TO TOUCH ME BECAUSE I’M A DELICATE FLOWER, SO THAT’S WHY NO WOMAN WILL SPEAK TO ME! We’ll be back after this!

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: There was so much promise with the Chiefs offense this year. They acquired Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy to complement Rashee Rice. The receiving corps was dreadful following Tyreek Hill’s departure, but the front office finally did a great job of replenishing the lost talent.

Well, so much for that. With Brown already hurt, Rice suffered a brutal injury versus the Chargers. It’s just Worthy now, who is only an inconsistent deep threat. The Saints have the talent in the secondary to put the clamps on this sort of an attack. Marshon Lattimore will be able to limit Worthy, so the rest of the defense can focus on containing Travis Kelce, who is expected to take on a larger role in the wake of Rice’s injury.

The Chiefs would love it if they could compensate for the Brown and Rice injuries with a strong rushing attack, but they don’t possess that anymore. Isiah Pacheco is also hurt, so the Chiefs had to rely on Kareem Hunt once Carson Steele fumbled last week. Hunt was better than Steele, but that’s not saying much. Hunt is washed up, so the Saints won’t face much of a challenge when trying to tackle him.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: It’s truly remarkable that the Saints were so explosive offensively last week. I say this because they were down three offensive linemen, losing Erik McCoy and Cesar Ruiz against the Eagles. Despite this, they still generated 366 net yards of offense against an Atlanta defense that has plenty of talent.

The Saints offensive line will be put to the test in this game. The Chiefs have a great defensive line that includes Chris Jones, so they should be able to hound Derek Carr and shut down the running lanes that Alvin Kamara will seek to utilize.

Steve Spagnuolo will also be looking to take Chris Olave away from Carr. Spagnuolo is infamous for doubling teaming the opposing best threat, so Carr will have to look elsewhere. The problem is that Rashid Shaheed is primarily a deep threat, so Carr not having time in the pocket could affect Shaheed’s production.

RECAP: The EPA numbers say this spread is way off. I think most casual fans might assume that the Chiefs should be favored by more than five. They’re undefeated, after all. Surely Mahomes can beat the Saints by more than five points.

Actually, the opposite is true. The Chiefs are favored by way too many points. The EPA numbers say that Kansas City should be -2, which makes sense if you think about it. The Chiefs would have lost to the one-win Bengals had Joe Burrow not fumbled, and they would have lost to the Falcons had Raheem Morris known when to kick field goals in the fourth quarter. Kansas City had issues putting away the Chargers even though they were playing against a team missing most of its top players, including Joey Bosa and both starting tackles.

The Chiefs seldom win by margin this early in the season anyway. Ever since Mahomes won his first Super Bowl, they are sub-.500 in non-divisional games in the regular season if favored by more than a field goal. At 4-0, the Chiefs don’t really have much of an incentive to give it their all in this game, especially against a non-conference opponent.

The Saints seem like a solid play. I wish we were still getting the advance spread of +6.5, but like I said, we’re getting good value regardless.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It was odd to see this line rise to -5.5. There hasn’t been a practice report yet, so I’m not sure why the line would move in Kansas City’s favor.

SATURDAY NOTES: As if the Saints didn’t have enough offensive line injuries, Shane Lemieux missed practice twice, while Lucas Patrick was downgraded on Friday to DNP. At some point, there will be a flake of straw that will break the camel’s back.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The Saints will be down at least two offensive linemen (Cesar Ruiz, Shane Lemieux) in addition to the two on injured reserve. That’s not good, but I still think they’re the right side.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: I don’t really like a side in this game because the Saints have so many injuries, but what I want to do is bet the under. I usually don’t bet totals, but both of these offenses are 20th or worse in adjusted EPA. A game between two such offenses should have a total in the 38 range, but we’re getting under 43, which seems great. The best number is under 43 -107 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

PLAYER PROPS AND SAME-GAME PARLAY: I’m looking at Juwan Johnson’s over 19.5 receiving yards. The Chiefs have been very leaky to tight ends, and Johnson’s snap count has increased in recent weeks. With Taysom Hill sidelined, Johnson should have at least 20 receiving yards. The best number is over 19.5 -115 at BetMGM.

I’m going to parlay Johnson’s over receiving yards with Rashid Shaheed over 48.5 receiving yards, Chris Olave under 59.5 receiving yards, and Travis Kelce over 58.5 receiving yards. The Chiefs typically double team No. 1 receivers. True No. 2 wideouts tend to do well against them for that reason. And Travis Kelce has to take on much more of a receiving role with Rashee Rice injured. This $20 parlay pays $228 on BetMGM with the 20-percent profit-boost token they have available under Promotions.

I also went a little nuts with this same-game parlay on FanDuel because there’s a 30-percent odds boost. I skipped Johnson’s yardage because the number there sucks. I parlayed Shaheed over, Olave under, Kelce over, along with Saints +5.5, under 42.5, and Kelce anytime touchdown. This $25 parlay pays $2,265.20. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m still neutral on this game, but I like the under. There’s a bit of sharp money on the Saints that has brought this line down to +5, and even +4.5 at Caesars. The best line is +5.5 -110 at Bet365. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from Bet365 by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Saints.

This game means much more to the Saints.

The Spread. Edge: Saints.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -6.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -6.5.

Computer Model: Chiefs -2.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Slight lean on the Chiefs.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 61% (317,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Patrick Mahomes is 88-24 SU, 61-49 ATS (48-36 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Opening Line: Chiefs -6.5.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Clear, 66 degrees. Light wind.