2024 NFL Picks – Week 5: Browns at Redskins

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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WASHINGTON OFFENSE: You’ve also heard the stat by now. Jayden Daniels has the highest completion percentage of any quarterback through four games of any season. This includes 2007 Tom Brady and vintage Drew Brees. Amazing.

Daniels could be known as a top-five quarterback very soon, but we’ll see how he fares against a tough defense first. Daniels hasn’t battled a top-20 EPA defense yet, as the Buccaneers, Giants, Bengals and Cardinals rank 22nd, 21st, 27th, and 30th, respectively. The Browns are 12th. They have Myles Garrett, who just terrorized Gardner Minshew last week despite not being 100 percent. The Browns have a top-10 pressure rate, and Washington’s tackles aren’t very good. This should be a concern.

The Browns are also fairly decent at stopping the run. Daniels would love to turn to Brian Robinson Jr. in the first difficult matchup of his career, but Robinson won’t find much running room.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Deshaun Watson sucks, but we can at least say that he had his best performance of the season last week. He had a miscommunication with Amari Cooper that negated a big play, but he didn’t hurt his team otherwise. Watson also missed out on an 80-yard touchdown to Cooper because of a penalty.

It’s unclear if this was a fluky result or an upward trend. If it’s the latter, Watson will continue to improve in this contest because the Redskins have the worst secondary in the NFL. Cooper should make amends for last week’s performance. It will obviously help if Watson can get at least one of his tackles to play a full game for the first time all year.

The Browns will also be able to establish the run in this game. The Redskins are better versus the rush than the pass, but only by default. They rank 25th against ground attacks, so Jerome Ford should be able to put together a nice performance.

RECAP: The Redskins are probably the most overrated team in the NFL not named the Bears. This is no shade at Daniels, who is incredible. This only has to do with their defense, which is ranked dead last in the NFL. I had one person on Twitter tell me that Washington’s defense doesn’t matter because Daniels is so good. That should tell you how overrated the Redskins have become.

My answer to that person was that the defense will matter when the Redskins battle a team with a good defense. Washington has gone against teams ranked 21st or worst defensively in EPA. The Browns are 12th. Garrett will be able to disrupt what Washington is doing, so the Redskins will need to be better on the other side of the ball.

I know that Cleveland’s offense isn’t much of a threat, but Watson played his best game of the season last week. Sure, he lost, but Cooper made a lot of mistakes, so I like him to rebound in his easiest matchup of the year.

The Browns look appealing. I can’t bet a lot on them if both tackles are out again, but if at least one returns, we’re looking at a wager of four units or more. The advance spread was +1, yet it’s +3.5 now. That’s quite the overreaction!

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jedrick Wills, Jack Conklin, and Ethan Pocic all missed Wednesday’s practice. This is not a promising start to the week. If all three blockers are out – in addition to Wyatt Teller, who is on injured reserve – I won’t have interest in betting on Cleveland.

SATURDAY NOTES: Ethan Pocic will play. As for Jedrick Wills and Jack Conklin, both were DNP-limited-limited this week. The Browns may decide to play at least one of them because one of the backup tackles, James Hudson, has been ruled out. I’m planning on a three-unit bet on the Browns unless both Wills and Conklin are out.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was hoping both Cleveland tackles would play. Jack Conklin is out, but Jedrick Willis will return. I still like the Browns for three units, though the sharps haven’t touched this game. The best line is the standard +3 -110 at a couple of sportsbooks, including BetMGM and FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Browns.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Redskins -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Redskins -1.

Computer Model: Redskins -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Washington: 55% (110,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Redskins are 21-33 ATS after a road win since 2000.

Redskins are 10-27 ATS as home favorites of more than 4 since 2000. ???

Opening Line: Redskins -1.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 72 degrees. Light wind.