2024 NFL Picks – Week 5: Raiders at Broncos

The Matchup. Edge: Raiders.

Video of the Week: The election is coming up, and if you’re as dumb as some of the people in this video, you probably shouldn’t vote:

My answer would have been: “He sniffed little girls.”

DENVER OFFENSE: I almost want to make a t-shirt with the following text on it: “7-of-15, -7 yards.” That was Bo Nix’s stat line at the half versus the Jets. Granted, he was playing in heavy rain, but it was an ugly showing by the Broncos.

This will be an easier matchup for the Broncos, but not a substantial one if Maxx Crosby is able to play. Crosby was sidelined last week for the first time in his career. It’ll be shocking if he misses a second game. If he can take the field, he’ll make it impossible for Nix to remain in the pocket. Then again, Nix mostly tosses ineffective checkdowns, so it may not make that much of a difference.

The Raiders are weaker to the run than the pass, which is confusing because they were second versus the rush last year and added Christian Wilkins in the offseason. Their inability to stop ground attacks won’t be a factor in this matchup because the Broncos really struggle to run the ball.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: The Broncos had some personnel question marks on this side of the ball heading into the season, but they’ve answered them thus far. They rank fourth in defensive EPA after an impressive showing last week versus the Jets, albeit in the rain.

If there’s one weakness with this Denver defense, however, it’s the ability to defend the middle of the field. The team even brought in Kwon Alexander to help in this regard. If the Raiders are smart, they’ll get Brock Bowers involved. Bowers shockingly did very little last week, but this is a great matchup for him. He could have his best game yet.

Bowers will have to do a lot because it’s likely that Davante Adams sits again. Adams is disgruntled because he wants to be traded, so it’ll be Jakobi Meyers who will have the misfortune of drawing Patrick Surtain II’s coverage.

RECAP: The Broncos were considered perhaps the worst team in the NFL after two weeks of the season. Things have changed since, as they beat the Buccaneers and Jets on the road. They are now favored by nearly a field goal against the Raiders.

I’m more than happy to fade Denver now. The Broncos caught the Buccaneers and Jets napping in terrible spots for them. The Raiders will pay attention to them. Their defense will give Nix a tough battle, which has been par for the course for the Raiders-Broncos games anyway. The Raiders have won the previous eight meetings over Denver.

I like the Raiders for a small play. I was hoping to get +3, but I’m not sure we’ll get that line because the sportsbooks might be worried that the sharps would pound Las Vegas at that number.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Raiders had 11 players miss practice Wednesday, including Maxx Crosby and Davante Adams. The Broncos had one player miss Wednesday’s practice, and he’s just a backup. The Raiders look less appealing.

PLAYER PROP: Brock Bowers’ receiving yards prop is almost 10 yards less than it was last week, which makes no sense. The Broncos have a great defense for the most part, but they can’t cover the middle of the field. This is a great matchup for Bowers, and he’ll be targeted heavily with Davante Adams and Michael Mayer likely out. The best number is over 43.5 -120 at BetMGM.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps are pounding the Broncos because of all the Raider injuries. Maxx Crosby is questionable after barely practicing. Davante Adams and Thayer Munford are both out. Dylan Parham and Divine Deablo are both questionable after getting in only one practice. I’m still going to bet two units on the Raiders if Crosby and Parham (their best offensive lineman after Kolton Miller) play.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It sounds like Maxx Crosby will play, but he could be severely limited after barely practicing all week. I’ve lost interest in this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Raiders will have Maxx Crosby and Dylan Parham, which is huge if they’re really healthy. However, they may not be anywhere close to 100 percent. I wouldn’t blame you for betting the Raiders, but it’s worth noting that the sharps are on Denver. The best line is the standard +3 -110, which I only see available at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Broncos.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Broncos -1.

Computer Model: Broncos -4.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Las Vegas: 55% (107,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Raiders.

History: Raiders have won the previous 8 meetings.

Raiders are 37-55 ATS after a win since 2009.

Opening Line: Broncos -2.5.

Opening Total: 37.

Weather: Sunny, 76 degrees. Light wind.