2024 NFL Picks – Week 5: Giants at Seahawks

The Matchup. Edge: None.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Walt Goes to Vegas 2024, Part 2: Stranger Prices. Read about how I got ripped off in Las Vegas.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: There were three major injuries in the Thursday night game between the Giants and Cowboys. Two occurred on Dallas’ defensive line, while the third transpired when Malik Nabers suffered a concussion toward the end of the evening. It’s unclear what Nabers’ progress is as of Tuesday afternoon, but he will have extra time to clear concussion protocol.

I’m sure Nabers was licking his chops when seeing what the Lions did to Seattle’s defense on Monday night. Jared Goff was a perfect 18-of-18 in a 42-point offensive onslaught. While Daniel Jones will never maintain that completion percentage, Nabers can at least do some damage against a pass defense that wasn’t tested prior to the Monday night affair.

Despite Goff’s perfect stat line, the Seahawks are at their weakest defending the run. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery picked up chunks of yardage against that defense Monday night, and Devin Singletary should have success as well.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: While the Seahawks defense failed miserably in their first real test of the season, the offense at least thrived. Geno Smith did a great job of attacking Detroit’s beleaguered secondary with D.K. Metcalf and his other receivers. Had Metcalf not fumbled deep in Detroit territory, the Seahawks would have scored into the 30s.

Smith will once again be able to successfully attack the opposing secondary. The Giants have some of the worst cornerbacks in the NFL, and they have no chance of covering D.K. Metcalf and the other talented receivers. The one caveat here is that Smith holds the ball for an eternity, so the talented New York pass rushers could get to him and disrupt some drives.

The Giants are better against the run than the pass, but only by default. They’re in the bottom half of rush defense, which spells trouble against Kenneth Walker. The talented runner looked great in his return from injury last week.

RECAP: I mentioned in the 49ers-Cardinals that San Francisco plays this upcoming Thursday night. This is the other leg of that matchup. The Seahawks will battle the 49ers in what is an intense rivalry for them. I don’t expect Seattle to be playing its best this week.

I like the Giants for other reasons in addition to the motivational edge. I also don’t think the Seahawks are good enough to be favored by nearly a touchdown. They have a great record, but they’ve beaten bad teams. The Giants are also a bad team, but it’s not like the Seahawks have blown out those bad teams, aside from Miami.

Furthermore, the Giants can rush the passer well, and Smith loves to hold on to the ball for eons in the pocket. They could get to him, and they also figure to run on the Seahawks, who struggle against ground attacks.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Sharp money on Seattle moved this line to -6.5. I wondered why until I saw that Malik Nabers was DNP on Wednesday because of his concussion. I won’t be as high on the Giants if Nabers is out.

SATURDAY NOTES: Malik Nabers is out, so I don’t have much of an interest in the Giants because he’s their entire offense. The sharps don’t like the Giants either. In fact, they bet the Seahawks up to -7.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It sounds that Nabers is out. The Giants may still be the right side, but I don’t see how they’re going to move the ball on Mike Macdonald’s defense.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There are no surprising inactives. The sharps were on the Seahawks at -6 and -6.5, but not at -7. If you like the Giants, you can get a standard +7 -110 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Giants.

The Seahawks have the 49ers in four days.

The Spread. Edge: Giants.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -6.5.

Computer Model: Seahawks -6.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Sharp money on the Seahawks.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 70% (123,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Seahawks are 60-46 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Seahawks are 8-16 ATS as a favorite of 6+ since 2017.

Geno Smith is 3-8 ATS as a favorite of 3.5+.

Opening Line: Seahawks -6.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 62 degrees. Light wind.