2024 NFL Picks – Week 5: Packers at Rams

The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

I told you about my two books, How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen and a Safety and a Field Goal! Well, I’ve written a third book that was released this past spring! It’s called Jerks of the College Years. If you like Jerks of the Week, you’ll like Jerks of the College Years, as it’s a collection of weirdos I wrote about during my time at Penn State.

You can support the site by buying this book and spreading the word!

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: It was surprising to see “No Cookie” Jordan Love take the field last week. Love didn’t get in a full practice all week, and Malik Willis had been playing so well. Love returned from his 2-week hiatus to struggle right away, but eventually caught fire in the second half.

Love’s momentum figures to carry over into this game. He won’t be completely rusty, so he’ll be able to get going right away against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Rams have numerous injuries in their secondary, so it’ll be very difficult for them to cover all of Love’s receivers, even with Christian Watson sidelined.

It’s hard to say whether the Rams are worse against the run or the pass. They’re in the bottom four of each category. They’re so bad at stopping running attacks that they revived D’Andre Swift’s career last week. Swift was so horrendous the week before that the coaching staff said that they’d involve Roschon Johnson more often. Instead, Swift steamrolled the hapless Rams en route to his best performance of the season by a mile, so Josh Jacobs will be even better.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: While Jacobs figures to thrive, Kyren Williams won’t do nearly as well. Williams won’t be completely shut down because he’s extremely talented and has shown that he can overcome tough matchups. However, things are different this year because the Rams are missing multiple interior offensive linemen. The Packers have also put the clamps on the run well enough to rank third in EPA.

With Williams mostly out of commission, Matthew Stafford will have to carry the team. This would be fine if he had even one of Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua, but that’s not the case. Jordan Whittington, a talented sixth-round rookie, finally saw more of a target share last week. The Packers don’t cover slot receivers particularly well, so Whittington could have a decent game.

Stafford should have time to find Whittington, at least. This hasn’t always been the case for the veteran quarterback, who endured protection issues against Chicago last week. However, the Packers are in the bottom half of pressure rate this season, so Stafford will have more of a chance this week.

RECAP: It’s nice to have a week in which we’re not speculating if Love will play. Love got his return out of the way last week, so he won’t have any sort of rust in this game.

With that in mind, it doesn’t seem like the Rams should have an answer for what Green Bay is doing. Los Angeles has one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Packers should be able to beat them on the ground or through the air quite easily.

Having said that, I don’t think I will be betting this game. I hate -3.5 lines because they are less likely to hit than any other point spread. I’d also fear a Stafford back-door cover, as he’s always live to engineer a second-half onslaught.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: “No Cookie” Jordan Love was limited on Wednesday’s practice report. While he’s expected to play, it’s not guaranteed that he’ll be 100 percent.

SATURDAY NOTES: One thing I almost missed is that Darious Williams could be back this week after practicing fully twice. This is a huge for the Rams, who need a talented player to return to their injury-ravaged secondary. I’m going to switch my pick to the Rams. I’m not convinced that Jordan Love will be 100 percent.

PLAYER PROPS: Josh Jacobs has a tremendous matchup. The Rams can’t tackle, and they just revived D’Andre Swift’s career. Jacobs should go nuts in this game. His best number is over 66.5 -114 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I think there’s some merit in tailing the sharps and betting the Rams with Darious Williams back. I may pull the trigger on a small wager.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jaire Alexander is out, which isn’t a huge deal considering the state of the Rams receiving corps. The sharps are on the Rams. If you want to bet them, the best line is +3 -107 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Packers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -3.

Computer Model: Packers -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Packers.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 56% (137,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Matt LaFleur is 51-36 ATS in the regular season.

Opening Line: Packers -3.5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Dome.