2024 NFL Picks – Week 5: Cowboys at Steelers

The Matchup. Edge: Steelers.

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PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: We have to begin on this side of the ball because that’s where all the injuries are. Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence got hurt last Thursday, and that’s not all, as Pittsburgh lost top offensive lineman James Daniels to a season-ending Achilles tear.

The Steelers could be down three offensive linemen depending on what the injury report looks like, which would have been very troubling in this matchup under normal circumstances. However, with Parsons and Lawrence being out, it won’t matter. The Cowboys already weren’t covering outside receivers well, so George Pickens should have a strong performance, as Justin Fields will have enough time in the pocket to find him.

Speaking of Fields, Dallas often struggles against mobile quarterbacks. Lamar Jackson ripped through the defense, and so will Fields. Najee Harris will also pick up chunks of yardage on the ground, as the Cowboys are notoriously poor versus the run.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Steelers aren’t the only team in this matchup with offensive line concerns. The Cowboys lost two starting blockers in the offseason, including Tyron Smith, and they haven’t pass protected Dak Prescott well as a result. Rookie left tackle Tyler Guyton has resembled a human turnstile.

I don’t need to tell you that Guyton is going to be a huge liability in this matchup. T.J. Watt and company will have their way with Dallas’ offensive line. Dak Prescott will constantly be under siege, so he won’t be able to connect with CeeDee Lamb as consistently as he’d like.

The Cowboys can’t turn to the running game to keep Pittsburgh honest either. They have one of the weaker rushing attacks in the NFL, and the Steelers are fourth versus the run anyway.

RECAP: When Parsons and Lawrence suffered injuries last Thursday, I immediately thought about a wagering opportunity on the Steelers. Pittsburgh had two offensive linemen sidelined in Week 4, but Parsons and Lawrence being sidelined would give the Steeler offense a great boost.

Pittsburgh, however, lost a key player in Daniels, who was knocked out for the year with a torn Achilles. If Isaac Seumalo doesn’t return, the Steelers will be down three offensive linemen. This would normally be catastrophic against Parsons and company, but it’s just company in this game, and not really the entire company because Lawrence won’t be available.

I’m not in love with this game from a betting perspective. I will be on the Steelers as a fade of a heavily publicly backed underdog, but I really worry about the blocking unless Seumalo can return to action.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Isaac Seumalo practiced fully, which is huge for the Steelers because of James Daniels’ injury. Micah Parsons was DNP on Wednesday.

SATURDAY NOTES: Isaac Seumalo will be back. The Cowboys, meanwhile, may have cluster injuries at two positions. Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence are both out. Trevon Diggs was downgraded in practice, and the team is already missing DaRon Bland. This is a great matchup for the Steelers anyway with T.J. Watt and company against Dallas’ poor offensive line. I’ll be on the Steelers for at least three units.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: I’m going to parlay Najee Harris over 68.5 rushing yards, CeeDee Lamb over 77.5 receiving yards, Rico Dowdle under 40.5 rushing yards, and Rico Dowdle over 12.5 receiving yards. The Cowboys have a miserable run defense, and Najee Harris is the only healthy running back. The Steelers allow lots of production to the slot, so CeeDee Lamb figures to be very productive. Pittsburgh clamps down on the run, so Dowdle won’t get much on the ground. However, in the two Dallas losses, Dowdle has eclipsed 20 receiving yards. This $25 parlay pays $263.62 on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m going to bump this up to four units. The more I think about it, the more lopsided this matchup is.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The more I think about it, the more I love the Steelers. I’m going up to five units. I’m shocked the sharps haven’t gone on Pittsburgh, but they haven’t taken the Cowboys either. The public is all over Dallas, which is music to my ears. The best line is -2.5 -106 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Steelers -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -1.

Computer Model: Steelers -4.

The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.

The Cowboys are a massive public dog.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 70% (185,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

Opening Line: Cowboys -1.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Chance of thunderstorms, 72 degrees. Light wind.