2024 NFL Picks – Week 5: Panthers at Bears

The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 in 2022, and they were 31-27 ATS in 2023. Publicly backed sides were 3-8 ATS through three weeks.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Cowboys -5.5

Vikings +2.5

Rams +3

Bengals -5.5

Saints +2.5

Bills +3

The public didn’t get crushed for once, but a 3-3 week is a winner for the house once again. The public is now 6-11.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Vikings -2.5

Raiders +3

Cowboys +2.5

Ravens -2.5

Seahawks -6

We’ll see if the public continues to lose money this week.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Though the Panthers lost last week, we at least saw that the decision to bench Bryce Young in favor of Andy Dalton didn’t provide a fluky result. Andy Dalton threw a poor interception against the Bengals, but otherwise had success moving the chains for most of the afternoon. Carolina was able to keep pace with Cincinnati until the third quarter.

The revenge tour for Dalton continues, though it’ll be a tougher matchup for him this week. The Bears are sixth in defensive EPA, and they generate the fourth-most pressure in the NFL. Luckily for Dalton, this is where the offseason moves the Panthers made will help him. Carolina spent big bucks on the offensive line, and Dalton has been shielded well in his two starts. This should continue to be the case. If so, Dalton will be able to connect with his talented receivers consistently, given that Chicago has some liabilities in the secondary.

The Bears are also weaker versus the run than the pass, so Carolina’s new offensive linemen, Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis, will be able to generate some nice rushing lanes for Chuba Hubbard, who has improved with Dalton. Chicago isn’t terrible versus the rush, but ranks right in the middle of the pack at 17th in EPA.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: While Carolina’s offense was able to maintain success in Dalton’s second start, the defense completely collapsed. Already down Derrick Brown and D.J. Wonnum, the Panthers lost Shaq Thompson and Josey Jewell to injury versus the Bengals. The linebacking corps was the one strength Carolina had remaining, but that’s not the case anymore.

Given the injuries to the front seven, D’Andre Swift projects well. This, however, doesn’t mean that he’ll perform on a high level. Swift had a nice game versus the Rams, but he’s been awful this year. Among starting running backs, there are only four players with a worse yards-per-carry-after-contact average than Swift. Chicago is also one of the worst run-blocking teams in the NFL.

I’m not sold on Swift thriving, and I will say the same about Caleb Williams. The No. 1 overall pick has shown some flashes of brilliance, but he’s also been erratic. Carolina’s cornerbacks aren’t that bad, so it’s not like Williams’ talented receivers have this incredible matchup.

RECAP: I can always tell when a team is overrated based on their fan reactions are to where I place them in my NFL Power Rankings. Two years ago, Viking fans were down my throat because I never put their team in the top eight despite all of the wins Minnesota accumulated. The 2022 Vikings turned out to be a paper tiger. Last year, Eagles fans hated me because I doubted their 10-1 squad. We saw what happened with them.

The Bears are the early leader for most overrated team in 2024. They’ve been outgained in three of their four games. The Titans doubled them in yardage, while the Rams beat them out by 100 yards. The defense has been very good, although it hasn’t really been tested outside of the Houston contest. The offense, conversely, has lots of problems. Williams is very inconsistent, while the offensive line really struggles to block.

The Panthers and Bears are very close in my ratings, so this -4 line is way off to me. I think Chicago should be -2, while the EPA numbers say this line should be -2.5. Furthermore, the Bears could be very distracted. They just won, and after this game against a stupid Carolina team, they have to head overseas. Favorites of -4 or more heading into Europe are 12-19 against the spread. We just saw the Jets lose outright to the Broncos in a similar spot.

I love Carolina this week. This will be a five-unit play, and it might be my October NFL Pick of the Month if the injury report is favorable.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No Diontae Johnson or Josey Jewell in practice Wednesday is not something I wanted to see. The Panthers remain a top play, but Johnson being sidelined would change things for me.

SATURDAY NOTES: I was worried about some Panther injuries. The good news is that Diontae Johnson will play, while Damien Lewis will return from last week’s absence. The bad news is that the Panthers have cluster injuries with Shaq Thompson and Josey Jewell both being sidelined. The Panthers have nothing else at linebacker, so they could be exposed here. I can’t make them my October NFL Pick of the Month with these injuries, but I still like them.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m dropping the unit count to two because I’m very concerned about Carolina’s inability to defend the middle of the field with the two primary linebackers sidelined. I still think the Bears could be unfocused here with a London game coming up. The sharps haven’t taken a side. The best line is +4 -103 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Panthers.

The Bears fly to London next week.

The Spread. Edge: Panthers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bears -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bears -3.5.

Computer Model: Bears -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Slight lean on the Bears.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 63% (112,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Bears -3.5.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Slight chance of thunderstorms, 74 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.