2024 NFL Picks – Week 5: Ravens at Bengals

The Matchup. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some hate mail from last week:

I always ask what I got wrong in my NFL Power Rankings because I use the rankings to make my own personal lines when handicapping NFL games. I truly want to know what I got wrong, and there is often constructive discussions being held in these threads.

That is not the case in this instance. Johnny Drama was very emotional about how low I ranked the Bears. He’s so emotional that he outed himself as failing to understand what defenses have to do with outgaining the opposition.

I quote tweeted him, which made him even more upset and defensive. Poor guy.

Here’s his reply to that:

This is like arguing with a child or a simpleton. It would be very frustrating, but I get to turn it into free content!

Anyway, I quote tweeted him again:

I can only assume that this Johnny Dumbass guy spends his days fingerpainting and gluing popsicle sticks together.

Here’s his final attempt to win the argument:

I quite literally just threw his argument back at him, and he had no response. Sad.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens have had quite the offensive explosion over the past two weeks. They struggled to move the ball against the Raiders in Week 2, but they rebounded nicely following that loss. They’ve generated 425-plus yards of offense versus their previous two opponents despite taking the fourth quarter off in large part.

This production was accomplished mostly on the ground, as Lamar Jackson has thrown just 33 total times the past two weeks. He’ll have to air it out more often against teams that can stop the rush, but Cincinnati doesn’t exactly fit that description. The Bengals had one good game versus the run when they clamped down on Brian Robinson Jr. in Week 3, but they’ve otherwise been gashed. They sorely miss D.J. Reader, and his absence will be felt in this contest.

It should be noted that the Bengals did a decent job of limiting Jackson’s scrambles last year, holding him to 54 rushing yards in both matchups. Jackson will be in trouble if he’s forced into throwing in this game, given that his offensive line really struggles to pass protect as a result of three offseason departures.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Baltimore’s offensive line was one concern I had with the team heading into this season. The cornerbacks were the other, and they were exposed in the first two weeks by Xavier Worthy and Davante Adams. Their previous two opponents didn’t have any outside threats. CeeDee Lamb plays in the slot, while Khalil Shakir was the best Buffalo had to offer.

The Bengals obviously have the weaponry to exploit Baltimore’s outside cornerbacks. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins had slow starts to their seasons, but they were both excellent last week against the Panthers. They’ll continue to thrive in this favorable matchup.

One thing the Bengals will not be able to do is run the ball. They’ve gotten some nice carries out of Chase Brown recently, but the Ravens currently rank seventh in EPA rush defense.

RECAP: This is a no-brainer for many. As of Tuesday afternoon, four-fifths of all bets are coming in on Baltimore. This is expected, given that the Ravens just demolished the Cowboys and Bills on national TV.

In winning like this, the Ravens have become overrated. They still have some glaring problems that their previous two opponents couldn’t exploit. They struggle against the pass, while their offensive line is still meshing after losing three starters to free agency. Chase and Higgins can obviously exploit the secondary, while Cincinnati’s talented pass-rushing duo can apply pressure on Jackson.

Despite the Bengals having these advantages, they are home underdogs. This would not be the case had Burrow not lost a fumble versus the Chiefs and beat them. We’re getting good value with the Bengals, who should be favored, so I like them for a considerable wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I was hoping for a +3 to appear, but that might be a pipe dream. There’s already sharp action on Cincinnati at +2.5, so I doubt we’ll see a +3 because the pros would really hammer that number. As mentioned earlier, I’m including the Bengals in a teaser with the Buccaneers.

PLAYER PROPS: I have the urge to short sell Mark Andrews down to zero. He appears old and decrepit, and he’s running fewer routes than Isaiah Likely. The Bengals have a poor defense, but they’ve handled tight ends well this year. The best number is under 25.5 receiving yards -104 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: There are no major injuries of note unless you want to count Sheldon Rankins for the Bengals. I still think Cincinnati is a great play, though I wish we could get +3.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are on the Bengals, which is hardly a surprise. I was hoping for a viable +3, but I can’t find one. The best I see is +3 -133 at Bookmaker. It pains me to say this, but the best line is +2.5 -107 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Bengals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bengals -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -1.

Computer Model: Ravens -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Slight lean on the Ravens.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 60% (137,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Ravens have won the last 2 meetings.

Joe Burrow is 38-18 ATS when not favored by more than a touchdown (3-6 ATS otherwise).

Opening Line: Ravens -1.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Sunny, 81 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.