2024 NFL Picks – Week 5: Dolphins at Patriots

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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MIAMI OFFENSE: What genius plan will Mike McDaniel concoct this week? Two weeks ago, he thought making Alec Ingold the focal point of his offense was a great idea. On Monday, he started Tyler Huntley despite Huntley not having any familiarity with his teammates. What will McDaniel do this week?

If Tua Tagovailoa would be available, this would be a terrific matchup for Miami. The Patriots have the top pass-funnel defense in the NFL, and Miami would be able to exploit that with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Perhaps Huntley will be better with a week of practice – albeit with one fewer day of practice – but I wouldn’t hold my breath.

If Huntley isn’t more effective this week, the Dolphins won’t produce much on this side of the ball. New England is much better versus the run, and De’Von Achane isn’t being given any lanes to rush through because of Miami’s offensive line woes.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Speaking of offensive line woes, the Patriots can’t block at all. Jacoby Brissett is being treated like a rag doll in the backfield. Some are calling for Drake Maye to start, but it would be detrimental to his career if he were given the David Carr treatment.

The Dolphins could be down one of their top pass rushers, as Jaelan Phillips had to leave the Monday night game early. If he’s out, Brissett may have some time to breathe. The problem though is that he doesn’t have any receivers who can separate. Demario Douglas is his best bet in the slot, but his low average depth of target isn’t going to burn any defenses.

The Patriots would love to run the ball, but the Dolphins are fifth in rush defense EPA. I wouldn’t expect much out of Rhamondre Stevenson, except for perhaps a fumble. Stevenson has fumbled in every single game this year.

RECAP: If these Dolphins were battling last year’s Patriots, I’d really like New England. I love fading backup quarterbacks against top defenses. The Patriots, under Bill Belichick last year, had one of the league’s best stop units despite missing Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzalez.

These Patriots are much different. Belichick is gone, and so is the elite defense. The Patriots are 25th in defensive EPA, so they don’t have any sort of edge over Huntley.

Backing Huntley, however, isn’t very appealing either. Honestly, I have no idea what to do with this game. Both teams are horrible. I have them 31st and 32nd in my NFL Power Rankings. I have the Dolphins 31st, so I’ll side with them, but this is my least-confident pick of the week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jaelan Phillips was ruled out for the season. With a diminished pass rush, Miami may have some issues against the Patriots. I thought about changing my pick, but I don’t think I can quite pull the trigger.

PLAYER PROPS: De’Von Achane’s rushing yards total is way too high. He had a great Week 2 against a depleted Buffalo defense, but he hasn’t exceeded 30 rushing yards in any other game. His run blocking sucks, and I’m not convinced that he’s healthy. The Patriots have the No. 1 pass funnel in the NFL, so that won’t help Achane. The best number is under 55.5 rushing yards -115 at BetMGM.

SATURDAY NOTES: I can’t believe I’m doing this. I didn’t think I would bet this game all week, but here we are. I’m on the Dolphins.

You might be wondering how I could possibly like the Dolphins, given how much of a s**t show their offense has been since Tua Tagovailoa got hurt. It’s been bad, but they’ve also played two teams ranked in the top 10 of defensive EPA. The Titans and Seahawks are seventh and ninth, respectively. The Patriots are 25th. New England has the No. 1 pass funnel defense in the NFL, and the Dolphins have Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and a returning Odell Beckham Jr. And yes, Tyler Huntley is the quarterback, but remember that backup quarterbacks tend to do well against non-elite defenses.

And holy crap, the Patriots have so many offensive line injuries. David Andrews and Caedan Wallace both landed on injured reserve. Cole Strange was already out. Michael Jordan, Nick Leverett, Vederian Lowe, and Layden Robinson are all questionable. Meanwhile, the Dolphins will get Terron Armstead and Kendall Fuller back from injury.

Maybe I’m overthinking things, but all signs point to the Dolphins bouncing back from a blowout defeat on national TV. This will be a three-unit wager.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Good news, bad news for the Patriots. The good news is that all of their questionable offensive linemen will play, though it’s unclear how healthy they are. The bad news is Kyle Dugger is out, which means they’ll be down their top two safeties against Miami’s receivers. The sharps have bet the Dolphins, though not to a great degree. The best line is -1.5 -109 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Patriots -1.5.

Computer Model: Dolphins -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Slight lean on the Patriots.

Percentage of money on New England: 61% (77,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Dolphins have won 6 of the last 7 meetings.

Dolphins are 28-19 ATS as a road underdog of less than 5 since 2008.

Opening Line: Patriots -1.

Opening Total: 35.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 63 degrees. Light wind.