2024 NFL Picks – Week 5: Buccaneers at Falcons

The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

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Week 4 Analysis: A frustrating week (albeit at 10-4-2) because we were so close to making a ton of money. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Falcons, 3 units (loss): I will admit that we did not deserve to win this game. The Saints outgained the Falcons by 50 yards. However, Atlanta nearly covered when Kirk Cousins hit Darnell Mooney for what was almost a touchdown pass in the final seconds. Cousins overshot Mooney by a bit, so in came Younghoe Koo to help the Falcons win by two instead of 2.5+. We lost this cover by half-a-point as a result. Again, this was not a bad beat, but we couldn’t get some luck to go our way on a big bet for the first time all year.

Texans, 3 units (win): The Texans outgained the Jaguars by 120 yards and one yard per play. Dumb play-calling prevented them from covering, as did a Tim Donaghy moment at the end. The Jaguars tried some laterals as time expired, and Travis Etienne was tackled in his own end zone for a safety to help the Texans cover -5.5. Except, the officials ruled him down at the 1-yard line, citing forward progress being stopped even though Etienne clearly moved forward in the end zone. Such bulls**t. Whoever rigged that result, I hope you’re happy.

Bengals, 5 units (win): The Bengals were up 31-14 at the end of the third quarter, but nearly blew the cover at the end. Phew!

D’Andre Swift under rushing yards units, 3 units (loss): My biggest player prop bet of the year thus far was a loss because of false information. The Bears coaching staff said that Roschon Johnson would be more involved this week after Swift bombed through three weeks. Yet, Swift got most of the work outside of one drive. I will be rooting for these scumbags to be fired ASAP.

Broncos, 4 units (win): We had the Broncos at +8, and they won outright.

Titans, 3 units (win): Will Levis didn’t cost us money for once!

I’m also frustrated because I loved the Raiders and Chargers early in the week, but came off of those picks because of injuries. Yet, both covered (if you had LAC +7.5). I also dropped my Tennessee unit count from five to three because of injuries. Argh!

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Kirk Cousins didn’t look too great in his first full game without Drew Dalman and Kaleb McGary. Actually, he hasn’t looked good since those two talented offensive linemen left the game in the second quarter of the Sunday night battle versus the Chiefs. The Falcons beat the Saints, but were outgained by 50 yards, mustering 315 net yards against a defense missing Demario Davis and Tyrann Mathieu.

Cousins will be down two offensive linemen against the Buccaneers, who tend to blitz often. This is troubling for Cousins because he is far worse when blitzed. In fact, his completion percentage drops 18 percent when the opposition brings extra pressure!

Cousins was bailed out by the running game last week, but he won’t be so fortunate this time. The Buccaneers have one of the top run defenses in the NFL as long as Vita Vea is on the field. Vea returned last week and helped his team put the clamps on Saquon Barkley. Bijan Robinson doesn’t seem like he’s 100 percent, so his pure talent won’t be able to overcome Vea and Tampa’s front.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Falcons will be relieved to know that they won’t have to deal with much of a running game this week. They had immense issues containing Taysom Hill on Sunday until the quarterback-tight end hybrid suffered an injury midway through the game.

The Buccaneers won’t be able to take advantage of this weakness. The interior of their offensive line run blocks extremely poorly, and the coaching staff gives Rachaad White way too many opportunities.

While the rushing attack won’t work so well, the Buccaneers will at least be able to move the chains aerially. Mike Evans will have to deal with A.J. Terrell, but he’s good enough to overcome any matchup. The big winner, however, will once again be Chris Godwin, who will take advantage of Atlanta’s inability to defend slot receivers.

RECAP: This spread seems to indicate that the Falcons are a good team. They came into the season with lots of hype, which I didn’t exactly buy until the team acquired Matthew Judon and Justin Simmons. I became a believer until the second quarter of the Chiefs game. This is when Atlanta lost Dalman and McGary to injury.

The Falcons are down to key offensive linemen, which hurts their offensive potential. They struggled to move the ball on New Orleans, and the only reason they won is because of two fluky defensive/special teams touchdowns. Had those not transpired, the Falcons would be 1-3 right now, and it’s doubtful that they’d be favored over Tampa Bay.

I’m not a huge fan of the Buccaneers either, but I like them to beat the Falcons. I wish we were getting +3, so this is currently just a lean at the moment.

Our Week 5 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Buccaneers will be missing Antoine Winfield Jr., Luke Goedeke, and Calijah Kancey, but I still like them as a lean. I’m not going to bet a side, but I like a couple of teasers:

Buccaneers +7.5 & Jets +8.5 (1 Unit)

Buccaneers +7.5 & Bengals +8.5 (1 Unit)

If the Buccaneers cover the +7.5, I will attempt to middle both teasers.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: My favorite prop is Bijan Robinson over receiving yards. Robinson caught five balls for 54 receiving yards in his lone full game against Tampa Bay last year. The Buccaneers blitz at a top-10 frequency, so Kirk Cousins will have to check the ball down to Robinson quite a bit. The best numbers are over 25.5 receiving yards -110 and 40+ receiving yards +235 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

I also think Bucky Irving will score a touchdown. Irving, not Rachaad White, is getting all the goal-line work. I like his numbers to score anytime and first. The best numbers are +180 and +850, respectively, on FanDuel.

The final two legs of this parlay are overs on Cade Otton and Sterling Shepard. The Buccaneers won’t have Jalen McMillan or Trey Palmer tonight, so these two players will be involved more so than usual. The best numbers are over 3.5 receptions for Otton on BetMGM, and over 19.5 receiving yards for Shepard on FanDuel.

I’m going to parlay everything together (save for Robinson 40+ yards and Irving first touchdown). This $25 parlay pays $365 on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s tons of public money on the Buccaneers and a bit of sharp action on the Falcons. You can get +3 -120 at Bookmaker if you want Tampa. I have enough money tied up in teasers, so I won’t be betting that even though it’s a bit appealing. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Falcons -3.

Computer Model: Buccaneers -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

Public and sharp money on the Buccaneers.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 76% (336,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.