2024 NFL Picks – Week 5: Colts at Jaguars

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Anthony Richardson suffered an injury last week, returned to the game, and then got hurt again on an immediate scramble. He eschewed the blue tent and just went into the locker room. And yet, it didn’t matter at all as far as the current game was concerned because Joe Flacco was a suitable replacement. In fact, it could be argued that he was an upgrade. Obviously, Flacco can’t run like Richardson can, but he was far more accurate and was able to involve Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs, which is something Richardson struggled to do through three games.

It’s unclear who will start in this game, but as far as the matchup is concerned, Flacco should be the preferred choice. Jacksonville’s primary defensive weakness is the secondary. With top cornerback Tyson Campbell injured, the Jaguars can’t cover anyone. The Colts should want an accurate quarterback to expose Jacksonville’s secondary. The Jaguars can get after the quarterback, but Richardson’s mobility won’t be needed because Indianapolis has a top-tier offensive line.

Richardson wasn’t the only member of Indianapolis’ backfield to suffer an injury. Jonathan Taylor injured his ankle, so he’ll miss a couple of games at the very least. The Jaguars are stronger versus the run than the pass, and while Taylor could overcome this difficult matchup, his backup, Trey Sermon, will not be able to do so.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars have been a mess on this side of the ball. Trevor Lawrence has regressed under Doug Pederson, much like Carson Wentz did following Philadelphia’s Super Bowl victory. He’s not seeing the field clearly, and he’s not capable of connecting with his receivers on deep throws.

Lawrence will have an easy matchup this week because the Colts are missing their top cornerback, but he also had a great opportunity to snap out of his funk last week and couldn’t do so. It doesn’t help Lawrence that he’s protected poorly. Despite the DeForest Buckner injury, the Colts are in the middle of the pack in pressure rate.

Give Lawrence’s struggles, the Jaguars will hope to run the ball, perhaps with Tank Bigsby, who has out-performed Travis Etienne on the ground. The Colts were gashed on the ground by the Packers in Week 2, but despite this, they currently rank 11th in rush defense EPA.

RECAP: It’s difficult to handicap this game right now because Richardson’s status is unknown. I don’t think there’s a difference between Richardson and Flacco as far as the point spread is concerned, but if Richardson attempts to play while injured, that could really hurt Indianapolis. Conversely, the players may step up for Flacco, knowing that they’ll have to try harder with their backup.

I don’t plan on betting this game at the moment, though I’ll consider a small wager on Jacksonville if Richardson plays despite being limited throughout the week. I’ll be on the Colts for no units if it’s Flacco.

One concern I have in backing the Jaguars is that Doug Pederson blamed his players during last week’s post-game press conference, so there’s a chance the team could quit on him.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Josh Allen may miss this game with a concussion. His absence would be enormous, though it’s worth noting that the sharps bet on the Jaguars to push this line from -2.5 to -3.

SATURDAY NOTES: A few major updates. First, Anthony Richardson was limited all week and is listed as questionable. However, Joe Flacco was taking first-team reps all week, so I’ll be surprised if Richardson plays. The Jaguars are much less appealing if Flacco plays, so this will almost certainly be a non-play unless Richardson gets the nod. Second, Josh Allen was DNP-limited-limited with his concussion this week. It’s unclear if he’ll be able to take the field. Third, both teams have some glaring injuries. There’s a chance the Colts could be without two offensive linemen. The inactives list is going to be very interesting, and it may unearth a potential bet for us.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Joe Flacco will start this game. He won’t have Jonathan Taylor or Ryan Kelly, but Braden Smith, who was questionable, will play. The sharps have pounded the Jaguars up to -3.5, but I’d still side with the Colts. The best line is +3.5 -105 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Colts.

Will the Jaguars quit on Doug Pederson?

The Spread. Edge: Colts.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Colts -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jaguars -2.5.

Computer Model: Colts -2.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Slight lean on the Colts.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 63% (106,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Home Team has won 12 of the last 13 meetings.

Jaguars are 15-30 ATS as home favorites since 2008.

Opening Line: Jaguars -2.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Likely rain, 80 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.