2024 NFL Picks – Week 13: Cardinals at Vikings

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Vikings are 4-1 since losing Christian Darrisaw. Based on their final results in the past four weeks, it doesn’t look like they’ve skipped a beat without him. Then again, they’ve had mostly low offensive outputs against bad teams, so they’ll be more tested in this matchup.

The Cardinals don’t have a terrible pressure rate, so they could get to Sam Darnold on some occasions. Arizona has some talented players in its secondary, but I wouldn’t expect them to do a great job on Justin Jefferson and company.

The Vikings don’t have a great rushing matchup either. Aaron Jones just put together a great game against Chicago, but the Cardinals are tougher against the run. They just did a solid job on Kenneth Walker, so they should be able to handle Jones.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The first thing I do whenever I evaluate any matchup against the Vikings is diagnose how effective the opposing quarterback is against the blitz. The Vikings blitz at the highest clip in the NFL under Brian Flores. While some quarterbacks are miserable against the blitz, Kyler Murray is excellent against it. Murray’s YPA actually rose last year when blitz compared to not blitzed. This year, his big-time throw pecentage is two percent higher (very significant) than it is when he’s not blitzed. Meanwhile, he drops by three points in turnover-worthy plays when blitzed.

Murray should have a solid performance, particularly when targeting Trey McBride. The Vikings haven’t been great against tight ends, or slot receivers for that matter, so perhaps we’ll get some Greg Dortch action as well.

While the passing game will work, the rushing attack doesn’t stand much of a chance. The last time the Vikings allowed more than 48 rushing yards to anyone was back on Oct. 24.

RECAP: It’s funny how games can flip on just a couple of plays. The Cardinals barely missed out on a couple of touchdowns last week. Had they converted on those, they may have beaten Seattle, and if they had, we wouldn’t be seeing this sort of a line shift. Arizona was +3 on the advance spread, and now we’re getting the full three at +3.5.

I still like the Cardinals, and I think they have a good chance of bouncing back off their loss to Seattle. The Vikings, meanwhile, haven’t had convincing victories recently. All four of their wins since losing Darrisaw have been against teams with losing record. The Colts, Jaguars, Titans, and Bears aren’t exactly this tough gauntlet. It’s fair to be skeptical of the Vikings and their 9-2 record because they haven’t defeated a winning team without Darrisaw.

Now, it’s not like Arizona is this great team, but it’ll give the Vikings tougher competition than they’ve seen lately. The Cardinals are especially appealing for that reason when combined with the extra half point, as well as the fact that the Vikings could be fatigued coming off an overtime victory.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Nothing stands out on Wednesday’s injury report. I don’t see much changing for me in this game.

PLAYER PROPS: Nothing stands out here, so I’ll pass on the props in this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: There are no significant injuries to speak of concerning this game. I’m actually going to drop the two projected units I had on the Cardinals because I don’t really have that strong of an opinion on this one.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps haven’t touched this game, and I have no interest either. I’m still leaning toward Arizona. You can get a clean +3.5 -110 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Cardinals.

The Vikings just won in overtime and had to travel.

The Spread. Edge: Cardinals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Vikings -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Vikings -3.

Computer Model: Vikings -3.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Good lean on the Vikings.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 68% (98,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Kyler Murray is 18-9 ATS as an underdog.

Vikings are 46-37 ATS at home since 2014 (15-22 ATS since 2020).

Opening Line: Vikings -3.5.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Dome.