2024 NFL Picks – Week 13: Eagles at Ravens

The Matchup. Edge: None.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Figs. My dentist’s office is packed with attractive female workers. How badly would I crash and burn with them if I were single?

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: A big mistake I made when evaluating the Ravens-Chargers matchup on Monday night was not factoring in the Denzel Perryman injury enough. I guess I thought the Chargers still had a great edge with their passing attack versus Baltimore’s secondary, but didn’t account for them holding on almost every play.

Perryman’s teams have a long history of struggling against the run when he’s sidelined. The Eagles won’t have such issues, and not because Perryman isn’t on their team. Philadelphia has the best ground defense in the NFL this year. It’s tough to truly stop Derrick Henry, but the Eagles should do a good job in restricting his production.

The Eagles also figure to clamp down on Lamar Jackson. They did a good job of containing Jayden Daniels, and while that’s not a true barometer, it is something. Also, the Eagles are getting great play out of their young cornerbacks, who should be able to limit the Baltimore receivers. Jackson will at least be able to target his tight ends, given that Philadelphia has been weaker to that position.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: While Lamar Jackson won’t be able to throw downfield as often as he would like, the Eagles should be able to attack in this manner. Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown have a dream matchup, after all.

By now, you know how bad Baltimore’s secondary is. The Ravens allow big plays to all passing attacks, provided those passing attacks aren’t self-destructing with holding calls and drops. The Eagles shouldn’t have this issue, especially if DeVonta Smith is able to return from his one-week hiatus. If not, Dallas Goedert can serve as a capable second option because Baltimore is woeful versus tight ends.

The Ravens are much better at defending the run than the pass under normal circumstances. However, they’re worse versus rushing attacks without Roquan Smith. The Chargers were well aware of this, and they were taking advantage of this liability with J.K. Dobbins until Dobbins got hurt. Saquon Barkley could have another great performance in the battle of the NFL’s two leading rushers.

RECAP: Some may say the Ravens won convincingly because they were up 30-16 before a garbage-time touchdown, but they were down 10-0 and up only 17-16 entering the fourth quarter. They ended up winning, but the Chargers crushed themselves with dumb mistakes, while the Ravens had to rely on converting three fourth downs.

The Eagles will put up a much better fight. Unlike the Chargers, they can stop the run, and they are less likely to shoot themselves in the foot with dumb mistakes.

I like the Eagles, but not enough to bet them at this number. I have some interest in teasing them up to +9.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: DeVonta Smith once again didn’t practice. Having Smith available would be significant this week because of how bad Baltimore’s secondary has been.

PLAYER PROPS: We know that the Ravens have a poor secondary. Top receivers burn them on a weekly basis. I don’t see why things would be different for Brown. The best number is over 88.5 receiving yards -112 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Ravens will have Roquan Smith back this week, but won’t have Kyle Van Noy, which is a huge loss. The Eagles may have DeVonta Smith, who was DNP-limited-limited. I still lean toward the Eagles.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: DeVonta Smith is unlikely to play, but I’d still lean toward the Eagles. I’m hoping for Smith to sit to help our Brown wager.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps haven’t taken a side in this game. DeVonta Smith is out, as expected. I would still lean toward the Eagles. If you want to bet them, the best line is +3 -110 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Eagles.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -3.

Computer Model: Eagles -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Good action on the Eagles.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 69% (5,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Eagles are 40-28 ATS as road underdogs since 2005.

Nick Sirianni is 3-6 ATS in his second consecutive road game.

Opening Line: Ravens -3.

Opening Total: 50.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 40 degrees. Light wind.