2024 NFL Picks – Week 13: Chargers at Falcons

The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

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SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Chargers were a huge disappointment Monday night. They got off to a hot start, but following their 10-0 lead, they were able to produce just six points the rest of the way until garbage time. They had a dream matchup against an awful Baltimore pass defense, but constant offensive line penalties and some drops really hurt them.

Justin Herbert and company will have a chance to make amends for their ugly loss in this game. The Falcons can’t stop the pass at all because of numerous cornerback injuries. Bo Nix looked like John Elway against them two weeks ago, so Herbert will pick up where Nix left off.

The Falcons are better against the run than the pass, so I don’t expect the Chargers to move the chains on the ground very effectively, especially if J.K. Dobbins misses this game. Gus Edwards is terrible, so perhaps Jim Harbaugh will turn to Kimani Vidal.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Unlike the Chargers, the Falcons will be able to run the ball. Bijan Robinson has been terrific of late, and he’ll have a great matchup if Denzel Perryman is sidelined. Perryman’s absence was huge on Monday night, and he won’t have a full week to recover.

Kirk Cousins will need Robinson to churn out significant yardage because he’ll be up against a dynamic pass rush. We’ve seen Atlanta’s offensive line falter against the talented AFC pass rushes this season, so things won’t go well for Cousins if he’s stuck in long-yardage situations.

Also, there’s a chance that Darnell Mooney will miss this game. Mooney injured his hamstring during the second quarter of the Week 11 loss, so he may not be ready to return. The Chargers were hurt by some of the secondary receivers Monday night, so Mooney’s potential absence could come into play.

RECAP: The Chargers didn’t come through for us on Monday night, but they’ve been so good to us otherwise this year. I’ll chalk the loss up to bad luck, as all those holding calls, drops, and fourth-down failures wouldn’t occur in every iteration.

Besides, I like backing good teams coming off losses, especially significant ones like nationally televised affairs. Harbaugh knows a thing or two about rebounding from defeats; excluding 2014 when his 49ers were not a good team, Harbaugh is 10-3 against the spread following a loss. I think it’ll be 11-3 ATS following this game because the Falcons aren’t a good team. Take out Cousins, Robinson and Drake London, and what do you have? Atlanta’s offensive line hasn’t held up well against great pass rushes, while its defense has been atrocious.

I like the Chargers quite a bit. They’ve taken care of business against bad teams, and they’ll do so again. And if you’re worried about the early start time, don’t be. Harbaugh has thrived in these situations. He’s 8-1 against the spread in 1 p.m. East Coast games, with the only loss coming this year to the Steelers when Herbert left the game early with an injury.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s not great to see J.K. Dobbins, Denzel Perryman and Will Dissly all miss Wednesday’s practice, but then again, the Chargers are coming off a short week, so they might be giving these veterans some rest opportunities. Dobbins is expected to be out, so that’s more of a reference to the other two.

PLAYER PROPS: Tight ends rip Atlanta’s poor defense to shreds. Will Dissly should have a great game. The best number is over 40.5 receiving yards -118 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The injury report isn’t great for the Chargers. They’re going to be down J.K. Dobbins, Denzel Perryman, and Cam Hart. Also, Daiyan Henley was downgraded to DNP on Friday. If he’s out, the Chargers will have cluster injuries at linebacker. Meanwhile, the Falcons will be healthier coming out of the bye with two cornerbacks and Darnell Mooney returning to action. I still like the Chargers, but I’m not as bullish on the play. I’m going to drop the unit count to three, and will decrease further if Henley is also ruled out.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Daiyan Henley will play for the Chargers, which is huge because it means that they don’t have cluster injuries at linebacker. The sharps are on the Falcons, but I’ll be going against them. The best line is -1 -108 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Chargers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -1.5.

Computer Model: Chargers -5.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

Slight lean on the Chargers.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 61% (107,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

Jim Harbaugh is 10-3 ATS after a loss, excluding 2014.

Jim Harbaugh is 8-1 ATS in 1 p.m. East Coast games.

Jim Harbaugh is 5-1 ATS after Monday Night Football.

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Dome.