2024 NFL Picks – Week 13: Texans at Jaguars

The Matchup. Edge: Texans.

Video of the Week: As someone who is annoyed by idiots on Twitter who think they know everything, I really appreciated this video:

I wish this were an exaggeration, but I know so many people like this.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: It sounds like there is a good chance Trevor Lawrence will return this week. This is a major bummer because fading Mac Jones was going to be extremely lucrative. The Texans generate pressure at a high rate, and Jones wouldn’t have stood a chance.

Lawrence obviously will, provided that he’s healthy. Lawrence foolishly played hurt throughout the second half of 2023, and the Jaguars struggled as a result. If Lawrence is returning prematurely from this injury – history says there’s a good chance this is the case – then Lawrence will struggle against a defense that can bring the heat so well.

The other injured member of the backfield, Tank Bigsby, will be needed to give Jacksonville a chance. Bigsby is a much better runner than Travis Etienne, and he would be able to exploit Houston’s greatest defensive weakness, which is their inability to stop the run.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Speaking of the running game, the Texans are very predictable offensively. This is because they run the ball at the highest clip in the NFL on first and second down. It doesn’t even matter what the circumstances are, as they did this even when Joe Mixon was sidelined. In their first meeting against Jacksonville, the Texans fed the ball to Cam Akers, which only put C.J. Stroud in constant third-and-long situations.

The Texans couldn’t run the ball last week against the Titans, which is why they struggled to move the chains. Tennessee has a tough run defense, so this wasn’t a surprise. The Jaguars, on the other hand, can’t stop the rush at all. Joe Mixon will rebound with a huge performance.

Mixon’s great running will only make things easier for Stroud, who will deliver downfield strikes to Nico Collins. The Jaguars’ poor secondary will be helpless to stop this.

RECAP: It’s difficult to handicap this game right now because we don’t know Lawrence’s status. If Lawrence sits, it’s an automatic fade of the Jaguars. The Texans will be able to score on Jacksonville because of the poor run defense, so they’ll be able to easily win this game because Jacksonville won’t be able to have any offensive success against the dreadful Jones. Houston’s great pass rush will make things very difficult for Jones.

On the other hand, if Lawrence is able to go, the Jaguars might be able to keep pace with the Texans, assuming Lawrence is close to 100 percent. Of course, there’s no guarantee of that because Lawrence played hurt last year, and when he did, he was very ineffective.

I’m probably going to be on the Texans no matter what, but the unit count will depend on Lawrence’s status.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Trevor Lawrence was limited in Wednesday’s practice, causing the line to drop to +4.5. There’s no guarantee that Lawrence will be 100 percent if he even plays, so I still would like Houston if he returns to the field.

PLAYER PROPS: I don’t understand why this number is so low. Joe Mixon has topped 100 rushing yards in six of his nine games. The Jaguars have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. And yet, the rushing prop isn’t even at 80 yards! Let’s take advantage of this mistake by the sportsbooks. The best number is over 79.5 rushing yards -120 at ESPNBet. I’m also going to bet on the 100+ and 125+ props as well.

SATURDAY NOTES: We’re still awaiting Trevor Lawrence’s status. He’s listed as questionable after being limited all week. I’ll have an update to this pick once we know if Lawrence will play.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Trevor Lawrence will play, but the Jaguars even admitted that he won’t be 100 percent. I’d consider betting Jacksonville if Lawrence were completely healthy because this could be considered their Super Bowl, but we just don’t know how effective he’ll be. The sharps bet the Jaguars. The best line is -3 -115 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Texans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Texans -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -7.

Computer Model: Texans -8.

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Houston: 87% (106,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

History: Texans have won 22 of the last 28 meetings.

Doug Pederson is 2-5 ATS after a bye.

Opening Line: Texans -7.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 63 degrees. Light wind.