2024 NFL Picks – Week 13: 49ers at Bills

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: We have to begin with the 49ers because there are some injuries to discuss. First and foremost, there’s Brock Purdy, who missed last week’s game with shoulder soreness. We should have known that Purdy would be sidelined because Kyle Shanahan often lies about his players’ injuries. The latest we have from Shanahan is that everything went well for Purdy in a light throwing session. Knowing Shanahan, Purdy’s arm could have fallen off during the session.

Based on this spread, I have to believe that there’s a decent chance Purdy will miss this game. If so, that would devastating, especially if Trent Williams is sidelined as well. The entire offensive unit operates so much worse when Williams isn’t available. Also, consider that Williams may not be 100 percent if he returns to action.

Speaking of injured players, Christian McCaffrey doesn’t seem like quite himself either. McCaffrey is missing the explosive plays he used to generate, and the team’s red-zone offense hasn’t improved upon his return. The Bills are weak to running backs, both as rushers and receivers out of the backfield, but with McCaffrey not being quite right, the 49ers may not be able to take advantage of that liability.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The 49ers have to worry about Nick Bosa’s status as well. The elite edge rusher has missed the past game-and-a-half, and the defense has predictably looked much worse without him. San Francisco will need all hands on deck versus Buffalo.

Josh Allen is coming off a tremendous performance against the Chiefs. Allen has stated that he plans on running more often as the season progresses, and will do so in big games. This Sunday night affair against the defending NFC Champions qualifies as such. If Bosa is out or limited, the 49ers will have trouble containing Allen, so the MVP candidate will have another big game as both a passer and a rusher.

Allen’s primary target in addition to Khalil Shakir could be Dalton Kincaid. The 49ers have allowed significant production to tight ends and slot receivers lately, so those two could be primarily involved.

RECAP: It’s difficult to handicap this game at the moment because we don’t know Purdy’s status. What we do know is that Shanahan is completely untrustworthy when it comes to medical information. This is the guy who told us that McCaffrey was dealing with a calf issue before McCaffrey missed half the season with an Achilles.

I’m skeptical of Purdy playing in this game. Then, of course, there’s also Williams and Bosa. If all three are out, the Bills will look great. If all three play, the 49ers will provide great value at +7. Given the complete unknowns, this game is impossible to diagnose right now. I’m going to pencil in the Bills, but check back later or follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS/LOCKED IN: I’m posting this early because I wanted to lock in this pick. The 49ers are a mess. Matt Barrows reported that Trent Williams is using a knee scooter to get around the locker room because walking has been too painful for him. It’s unlikely that he’s going to play. Fred Warner admitted that he’s been playing through a fractured ankle. Nick Bosa didn’t practice Wednesday. Brock Purdy has a shoulder problem, so he’s either going to be out or hurt. There’s a good chance this line will skyrocket to -9.5 by kickoff, so I’m locking in -7 -104 at Bookmaker for five units. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: I don’t know what happened. We got a mostly great injury report favoring Buffalo, and yet the sharps took the 49ers on Friday afternoon. I presume this is because Brock Purdy was full in practice, but I don’t trust that. What I do trust is that the 49ers have declared Nick Bosa, Trent Williams, Aaron Banks, and Deommodore Lenoir to be out. Meanwhile, Matt Milano may return after practicing fully every day this week. Despite the sharp movement, I still love the Bills.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: Christian McCaffrey’s over receiving yards prop should hit. The Bills allow a lot of receiving yardage to running backs, and the 49ers figure to be trailing, so a hindered Brock Purdy will throw checkdowns to his running back. The best number is over 30.5 receiving yards -112 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

We’re going to throw the McCaffrey over receiving yards into a parlay with George Kittle over 47.5 receiving yards, Khalil Shakir over 55.5 receiving yards, and Dawson Knox over 25.5 receiving yards. The Bills tend to be weak against tight ends as well, though it should be noted that this wasn’t the case in the Chiefs game prior to the bye. The 49ers also struggle against tight ends. They can’t defend the slot well either. This $25 parlay pays $291.10 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It seems as though the weather is overblown. It was bad in Buffalo last night, but I don’t even think there’s supposed to be much snow during the game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Brock Purdy and Matt Milano are both active, but one is likely much healthier than the other. The sharps were on the 49ers at +7, most likely because of a weather play, but other pro money has come in on Buffalo at -5.5 and -6. The best line is -6.5 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -6.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -3.5.

Computer Model: Bills -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

Good amount of sharp action on the Bills.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 58% (85,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.