2024 NFL Picks – Week 13: Colts at Patriots

The Matchup. Edge: Colts.

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INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: It appeared as though the Colts were going to give the Lions a tough game. They scored twice early, as Anthony Richardson ran circles around them. Indianapolis didn’t score beyond six points, however, as the Lions controlled the game the rest of the way.

Richardson will look to rebound against a worse defense, but may not have the services of Josh Downs, who suffered a shoulder injury last week. On the bright side, Michael Pittman Jr. looked healthy for the first time in a long while. Downs has been Indianapolis’ best receiver this year, but Pittman’s improved health will make up for Downs’ potential absence.

The big difference between this game and the previous one for Indianapolis is that it’ll be able to run the ball. The Lions clamp down on the run extremely well, which would explain Jonathan Taylor’s meager stat line from last week. Taylor will rebound, given that the Patriots are very poor against ground attacks.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Colts aren’t very good at stopping rushing attacks either. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery just steamrolled them. Granted, the Patriots don’t run the ball nearly as well as the Lions, but Rhamondre Stevenson can be a solid threat on the ground.

Stevenson wasn’t able to get going last week, which put Drake Maye in constant third-and-long situations. Maye was crushed in those because his two tackles played horribly against an improving Miami pass rush. The Colts are just average at getting to the quarterback, so Maye won’t be harassed as much this week, especially when considering that he’ll be able to lean on Stevenson.

Maye should have the most success throwing to Hunter Henry. The Colts have had issues defending tight ends all year, and Henry has developed a good rapport with Maye already.

RECAP: The Patriots were a huge disappointment last week. I thought they’d be able to hang with the Dolphins. Instead, they trailed 21-0 at halftime and only scored their 15 points in garbage time.

The Patriots will have a better chance to compete against the Colts this week, but with this spread, we likely need them to win outright to cover this spread. That’s not something I want to bet.

Backing the Colts as road favorites doesn’t seem great until you remember that they have five wins this year, and they’ve beaten every losing team they’ve played this year, save for the Jaguars, who had a healthy team in that meeting. The Colts have wins over the Bears, Steelers, Titans, Dolphins, and Jets. And excluding the Jaguars, they’ve lost to the Texans twice, Packers, Vikings, Bills, and Lions. Tell me to which group the Patriots belong.

I’m going to back Indianapolis as a fade of the Patriots. I don’t think I’ll be betting a coin-flip game like this, but I did consider the Colts for a small bet.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The good news for the Colts is that Bernhard Raimann might be back this week, given that he was limited on Wednesday. The bad news is that Josh Downs, Braden Smith and Alec Pierce were all DNP on Wednesday as well. The Colts said that Downs’ injury wasn’t as bad as expected, but given that the Colts have a bye week coming up, they may just keep Downs out until Week 15.

PLAYER PROPS: The Colts have allowed a running back to rush for at least 64 yards in every single game dating back to Sept. 29. Yet, Rhamondre Stevenson’s prop total is much lower than that. How does that make sense? The best number is Stevenson over 49.5 rushing yards -113 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Indianapolis’ offensive line is a disaster. They’re getting Bernhard Raimann back, but the team will be missing their top two centers, as well as tackle Braden Smith. The right side of the offensive line looks like: center Danny Pinter, right guard Dalton Tucker, and right tackle Blake Freeland. Tucker and Freeland both suck, while Pinter hasn’t played in two years, and when he did, he was even worse than Tucker and Freeland. Making matters worse, Josh Downs is sidelined as well. Alec Pierce could miss this game, too, but he practiced fully on Friday and should play. I love the idea of fading the Colts here because of their injuries. The problem is that the sharps already removed +3 from the board. Still, the Patriots seem like a good bet.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps hammered the Patriots at +3. It’s a shame we’re not getting that number anymore, but I still like New England to cover at +2.5 because of Indianapolis’ injuries. The best line is +2.5 -105 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Patriots.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Colts -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Colts -2.5.

Computer Model: Pick.

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.

Plenty of action on the Colts.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 74% (89,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

Opening Line: Colts -2.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Sunny, 36 degrees. Light wind.