2024 NFL Picks – Week 13: Buccaneers at Panthers

The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

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TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: It wasn’t clear how much Mike Evans would play in his first game back last week, or how impactful he would be. Evans certainly had an impact, but he didn’t play his full complement of snaps. Of the 65 snaps Baker Mayfield played, Evans was on the field for 39 of them.

Evans will play more this week, and he’ll be able to take advantage of a defense that hasn’t been able to stop No. 1 receivers for most of the season. Carolina’s defense has been better lately because D.J. Wonnum has returned from injury to rush the passer. It would help Mayfield if he were to have Tristan Wirfs available.

Then again, Mayfield could just hand the ball off to his running backs. The Panthers also have a woeful run defense, so the Buccaneers should be able to take advantage of that. Bucky Irving played more than usual coming off the bye last week, which makes sense because he’s the team’s best runner. He’s also getting the post-bye rookie leap, so expect his strong play to continue.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Don’t look now, but Bryce Young is finally playing somewhat mediocre football! Young had the fourth positive-EPA start of his career against the Chiefs. He’ll look to make it five against the Buccaneers.

Young won’t be able to do this with Chuba Hubbard aiding him. The Buccaneers own a terrific run defense that thrives whenever Vita Vea is on the field. Then again, Hubbard didn’t have a good matchup heading into last week’s game either.

Even if Young doesn’t get much help from his rushing attack, he could have an opportunity to throw on Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers have maintained a poor pass defense recently, and with Adam Thielen back, Young has multiple viable receivers at his disposal. And unlike Tommy DeVito, Young is protected well, so the Buccaneers won’t be able to hound him in the backfield like they did to poor Tommy Cutlets.

RECAP: Last week, I discussed that there’s a huge disparity between how Todd Bowles handles veteran quarterbacks and inexperienced/bad signal-callers. Dating back to last year when the defense first declined, the Buccaneers have battled the following bad quarterbacks: Justin Fields, Desmond Ridder (twice), Will Levis, Bryce Young (twice), Spencer Rattler, and now Tommy DeVito. In those eight games, they’ve allowed an average of 14.5 points, and they’re 6-2 against the spread.

Here’s the question: Where does Young fit in now? Obviously, Young made the list last year, but he was horrendous as a rookie. He’s not quite good yet, but he has improved recently. I just don’t know how real that is. Young could continue to play on a mediocre level, but he could easily regress, especially against Bowles.

What really stands out to me is this spread. The Buccaneers are favored by the same number of points over the DeVito-led Giants as they are against the Panthers, which seems wrong. Carolina has been better lately, nearly taking down the Chiefs and beating the Saints and Giants. The Giants, by the way, were quarterbacked by Jones in that game, and as we surely know now, Jones is much better than DeVito. Thus, Carolina has to be the play as far as spread value is concerned, but I just don’t know how Young will hold up in this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Tristan Wirfs returned to a limited practice, so it looks like he has a chance to return to action. That would be a big deal against a Panthers defense that has an enhanced pass rush, thanks to D.J. Wonnum playing.

PLAYER PROPS: The Panthers are one of the worst teams in the NFL when it comes to defending tight ends. Cade Otton should bounce back from his one-catch performance last week. The best number is over 41.5 receiving yards -113 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Buccaneers will be without a couple of defensive backs, as Jordan Whitehead and Tykee Smith won’t be available. Still, it’s worrying that the Panthers’ Week 12 performance against the Chiefs isn’t nearly as impressive as we once thought because the Raiders just nearly beat the Chiefs in the same fashion in Kansas City.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’ve changed my pick to the Buccaneers. What we saw on Black Friday was a major stain on the Panthers’ close call against the Chiefs. Bryce Young had a good game, but Aidan O’Connell was even better. Todd Bowles is great against terrible quarterbacks, and Young is probably still terrible.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Tristan Wirfs is active, so that’s another reason to be on the Buccaneers. There’s some sharp action on Tampa Bay as well. The best line is a standard -6.5 -110 at many sportsbooks, including Caesars, BetMGM, and FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Panthers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Buccaneers -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -7.

Computer Model: Buccaneers -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

Everyone is on the Buccaneers.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 85% (109,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

History: Buccaneers have won 10 the last 12 meetings.

Road Team is 140-96 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -7.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Sunny, 52 degrees. Light wind.