2024 NFL Picks – Week 13: Raiders at Chiefs

The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some hate mail from last week:

This isn’t a response about my picks, but I replied to Torrey Smith, who tweeted out something moronic almost a month ago.

Shout out to @real_mad_ who doesn’t know how the United States work. He should change his handle to @real_dumb_.

Speaking of, Dumbosaur Captain replied:

Imagine believing that childless cat ladies matter to anyone except the cats that will eventually eat their corpses.

This guy made a rhyme:

How proud do you think this guy is for that post? He must have been thinking about it weeks later. “OMG HOW CLEVER AM I!? I MADE A POST THAT RHYMED HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!”

Good job, Big Mike. That was a very “special” reply by a very “special” guy.

Here’s more projection:

I think you for your patronage, William. And no, I don’t think cat ladies like you should vote.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Though the Chiefs barely won in Carolina last week, they saw Patrick Mahomes put together one of his best performances of the season. Mahomes went 27-of-37 for 269 yards and three touchdowns. He also had a clutch scramble to set up the decisive field goal.

Granted, Mahomes was battling a miserable Carolina defense, but it’s not like the Raiders are this defensive juggernaut. In fact, the Raiders are downright awful on this side of the ball, ranking dead last in adjusted defensive EPA. They’re missing several cornerbacks, so Mahomes should have an easy time finding his receivers and tight ends.

Speaking of Mahomes’ weapons, Isiah Pacheco could make his return in this game. The Raiders are mediocre when it comes to stopping the run, so Pacheco could hit some explosive plays if he’s not a shell of his former self.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: When Gardner Minshew broke his collar bone, I thought we’d have a golden opportunity to bet against Desmond Ridder on Black Friday. Sportsbooks could have announced, “Black Friday sale! Bet on the Chiefs and win free money!” Unfortunately, Ridder won’t start because Aidan O’Connell is set to return from his thumb injury.

It remains to be seen if O’Connell is healthy. Even if he is, he won’t have an easy time against a Chiefs team that generates pressure at the sixth-highest clip in the NFL. The Raiders have a poor offensive line, so this is not a good recipe for them.

The Chiefs are also stout when it comes to clamping down on the run, so O’Connell will have to move the chains on his own. The only thing that will work is Brock Bowers; the Chiefs happen to be very weak to tight ends.

RECAP: The Chiefs are a team that doesn’t often win by margin. They treat the regular season like a tune-up for the playoffs. As a result, they have just two victories by double digits this year.

However, I think this will be the third. Not only are the Chiefs the better team on a short week; they could be motivated because of what occurred last year. Kansas City lost outright to these very same Raiders on Christmas, so the Chiefs could be focused on a rare occasion as a big favorite.

Also, consider the Raiders’ quarterback situation. It sounds like O’Connell will play, but the Raiders may be rushing him back from his thumb injury. Even if O’Connell plays, he presents a problem as a miserable quarterback against a solid Chiefs defense. If you remove garbage time, O’Connell was the third-worst quarterback according to EPA in 2023, among signal-callers who threw the ball 125 times or more. The only quarterbacks worse were Easton Stick and Deshaun Watson. Even Tommy DeVito was one spot better.

The Chiefs should win this game by double digits. They prevailed by only seven versus the Raiders earlier in the season, but Minshew scored a back-door touchdown in the final minute. Minshew has been a better quarterback than O’Connell in the past two seasons, and O’Connell may not even be healthy, so it shouldn’t surprise anyone if this is a blowout.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Aidan O’Connell has been practicing fully, so maybe he’s 100 percent after all. What’s not 100 percent is the Raiders’ secondary, which will be down multiple cornerbacks again. Facing Patrick Mahomes without multiple cornerbacks is obviously not ideal.

PLAYER PROP BET & SAME-GAME PARLAY: The Chiefs have a good defense, but they can’t defend tight ends at all. Brock Bowers should have a great game. The best number is over 56.5 yards -120 at BetMGM.

I’m going to throw in the Bowers over receiving prop in a parlay on FanDuel (61.5) because BetMGM doesn’t have one of the players we need. The other legs in this parlay are: Tre Tucker over 31.5 receiving yards, Travis Kelce over 55.5 receiving yards, and Noah Gray over 20.5 receiving yards. The Chiefs are also bad against No. 2 receivers because they tend to double team the opposing top option. Meanwhile, the Raiders are also awful at covering tight ends, so I like Kelce and Gray (not on BetMGM) to go over. This $25 parlay pays $267.71 on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This should come as a bit of a surprise, but there’s some sharp money coming in on the Chiefs. Despite this, I’m going to drop to one unit because I’m not feeling great about laying nearly two touchdowns with a team that doesn’t care to win by margin at all. The best line is -13.5 -108 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Chiefs.

The Chiefs may remember what happened against the Raiders on Christmas.

The Spread. Edge: Raiders.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -13.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -12.5.

Computer Model: Chiefs -8.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 55% (177,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

History: Chiefs have won 17 of the last 20 meetings.

Raiders are 19-13 ATS as double-digit underdogs since 2008.

Patrick Mahomes is 94-25 SU, 63-54 ATS (49-40 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Opening Line: Chiefs -12.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Slight chance of snow, 35 degrees. Light wind.