2024 NFL Picks – Week 13: Dolphins at Packers

The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 in 2022, and they were 31-27 ATS in 2023. Publicly backed sides were 29-26 ATS through 11 weeks.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Buccaneers -6

Lions -7

Chiefs -10.5

Eagles -3

Texans -7.5

Redskins -10.5

Broncos -5.5

The public got its top two plays right, going 4-3 on the week overall. The public is now 33-28.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Buccaneers -6

Texans -4.5

Cowboys -4

Steelers +2.5

It should come as no surprise that the public is fading the Panthers, Jaguars, and Giants.

MIAMI OFFENSE: The Dolphins have made it known that they’ve fundamentally changed their offense. They’ve mostly abandoned their big, explosive plays and have transitioned to getting the ball out to their play-makers’ hands as quickly as possible. This would explain why Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle haven’t met expectations this year when Tua Tagovailoa has played, while De’Von Achane and Jonnu Smith get tons of targets each week.

The shift makes sense, given Miami’s offensive line woes. The Dolphins can negate pressure this way, which is crucial in a game like this because the Packers are so effective at getting to the quarterback. On the flip side, the Packers are guilty of the fourth-most missed tackles in the NFL, so Miami could break some long gains after these short tosses.

What we won’t see from the Dolphins, however, is an established running game. The Packers handle the rush well, and the Dolphins don’t block in the interior very effectively because they still miss offseason departures Robert Hunt and Connor Williams.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The Dolphins weren’t supposed to have a dynamic pass rush because of injuries to Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb, but they have gotten after the quarterback very well lately. Zach Sieler’s return from injury has been huge, as has Chop Robinson’s emergence. Robinson has exceeded expectations as a first-round rookie, so the Dolphins will have a chance to generate pressure on “No Cookie” Jordan Love despite Love being well protected.

The Dolphins need all the help they can get, given how many weapons Love has at his disposal. Romeo Doubs may miss this game, but Love still has three dynamic receivers to throw to, as well as Tucker Kraft. Miami is weak to tight ends, so Kraft could have the best performance.

Miami has also improved at stopping the run. Josh Jacobs has been building some major momentum lately, and he would have certainly continued that if he had gone up against the Dolphins about a month-and-a-half ago. However, Miami hasn’t allowed more than 62 rushing yards to an opponent since Oct. 6.

RECAP: Tagovailoa said he wants to destroy narratives in this game. The narrative entering this Thanksgiving night game is that the Dolphins can’t beat good teams and can’t win in cold weather. It’s projected to be in the 20s in Green Bay this Thursday night.

I hope Tagovailoa can forgive me, but I’m going to side with the narrative. I don’t believe in Mike McDaniel as a football coach to back him against a good team. Also, we’re getting some decent line value with the Packers. They were -3.5 on the advance line, and now they’re -3. That’s only a half-point move, but it’s to the ultimate key number of three.

Ultimately, I don’t see a good betting opportunity in this game. I expect the Dolphins to lose, but they could do that and still cover, like that did at Buffalo a few weeks ago.

PLAYER PROP BET & SAME-GAME PARLAY: Tucker Kraft stands to benefit from Romeo Doubs’ concussion. He also stands to benefit from Miami being horrible against tight ends. This is my favorite player prop of the Thanksgiving slate. The best number is over 31.5 receiving yards -113 at FanDuel.

We’re throwing in the Kraft over receiving yards with Jonnu Smith over 48.5 receiving yards, Josh Jacobs over 14.5 receiving yards, and Christian Watson over 44.5 receiving yards. The Packers also allow lots of production to tight ends. Meanwhile, the Dolphins tend to give up many receptions to running backs, so Jacobs should be able to hit 15 receiving yards. I also like Watson to make amends for his drop last week. This $25 parlay pays $272.34 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Dolphins will be down Kendall Fuller, while the Packers will be without Jaire Alexander, Romeo Doubs, and a couple of linebackers. That’s an advantage for Miami, but not enough to sway me.

FINAL THOUGHTS: We’re not on the positive end of the variance stick today. The Cowboys score two touchdowns off turnovers, while the Giants can’t get a turnover because Cooper Rush’s knee was down. Anyway, we can’t lose money on a side here because we’re not betting either side. This line is -3.5, which is unappealing. But I wouldn’t want to be on Miami either. The sharps haven’t touched this game. The best line is -3.5 +100 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Dolphins.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -3.5.

Computer Model: Dolphins -4.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 56% (269,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Dolphins are 30-20 ATS as a road underdog of less than 5 since 2008.

Matt LaFleur is 54-39 ATS in the regular season.

Opening Line: Packers -3.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 28 degrees. Light wind.