2024 NFL Picks – Week 13: Seahawks at Jets

The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

If you want to create NFL Mock Drafts and NBA Mock Drafts, we have you covered as well. Check out the Mock Draft Builder. Some mocks on here have gotten more than 6,000 views!

Some featured NFL Mock Drafts in the MDB:

Jate Nones NFL Mock Draft

MalloryGlickman33 NFL Mock Draft

NEW YORK OFFENSE: News released during the Jets’ bye week that Aaron Rodgers intends on playing elsewhere next season. We’ve heard about lame-duck coaches before, but lame-duck quarterbacks? That’s a new one.

Rodgers doesn’t project well in this game, though I don’t know if he’ll play well again this year. The Seahawks are 11th in pressure rate, so they’ll be able to rattle Rodgers. They also possess some talented cornerbacks who can stay with the talented receivers.

Rodgers would have been able to lean on Breece Hall earlier in the year. The Seahawks had one of the worst run defenses for a stretch, but Leonard Williams has been playing out of his mind since getting healthy after he was dealing with an injury in early October.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: It seems as though the Seahawks always have a chance to beat anyone as long as all three of their receivers are healthy. D.K. Metcalf missed some action earlier in the season, but perhaps that was a blessing in disguise because it allowed Jaxon Smith-Njigba to come into his own.

With Metcalf and Smith-Njigba performing on a high level, Seattle’s offense figures to be productive this week. That may sound confusing to anyone slightly familiar with the Jets secondary, but those very familiar with the Jets secondary know this is true. The Jets have three talented cornerbacks, but none of them are playing to their potential. D.J. Reed has been the best, but he’s missed too many tackles. Sauce Gardner has also missed plenty of tackles, and he’s been flagged for way too many pass interferences. And then there’s the usual terrific Michael Carter II, but he’s been awful this season.

The Jets didn’t need to suddenly struggle against the pass because they’ve been woeful to the run since the beginning of last season. That does not bode well for New York’s matchup against Kenneth Walker.

RECAP: Congratulations if you bet the Seahawks +1.5 before Week 12. We had a discussion about that look-ahead line on our show last week. We agreed that it was absurd that the Jets were favored yet again.

Well, that’s no longer the case. This spread has moved 3.5 points in Seattle’s favor, with the Seahawks now being favored by two. I’m wont to fade these overreactory line moves, but I think the oddsmakers finally got this one right. The Jets have loads of talent, but they’re the worst-coached team in the NFL. They never live up to their potential, so it was absurd to ask them to cover as a favorite against most teams. They’re now underdogs, but they still might have trouble beating the +2.

Unfortunatley, our line value is gone, so I think I may pass on this one as a potential wager. But that just might be the result of sticker shock, so I could see myself betting the Seahawks after thinking about it.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No D.K. Metcalf, Leonard Williams, or Tyler Lockett for the Seahawks in Wednesday’s practice. No Breece Hall or Tyron Smith for the Jets in Wednesday’s practice. Friday’s report will be huge.

PLAYER PROPS: Nothing stands out for me here either.

SATURDAY NOTES: Things looked bleak for the Seahawks on the injury report 24 hours ago. D.K. Metcalf, Leonard Williams, and Tyler Lockett were all considered questionable at best after being DNP in both practices. However, all three returned to Friday’s practice, and none have an injury designation. The sharps bet the Jets, perhaps thinking that these players would be sidelined. It seems as though the sharps were once again duped into taking the crappy Jets.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are all over the Jets, just as they are every week. I’m actually going to place one unit on the Seahawks. I know it’s not a big bet, but I’ve been so adamant about the Jets being a falling knife that I’ll be upset with myself if I don’t take advantage of it in some way. The best line is +1.5 -108 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Seahawks.

The Jets may quit.

The Spread. Edge: Jets.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jets -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jets -1.5.

Computer Model: Jets -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

Everyone abandoned ship.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 78% (96,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

Jets are 23-10 ATS at home following a home loss in the last 33 instances.

Aaron Rodgers is 131-95 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 30-21 ATS as an underdog.

Aaron Rodgers is 40-26 ATS after a loss (14-8 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).

Aaron Rodgers is 5-2 ATS as a home underdog.

Opening Line: Jets -1.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 37 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.