2024 NFL Picks – Week 13: Titans at Redskins

The Matchup. Edge: Redskins.

Contest Announcement time!

Our weekly fantasy football contest has returned. It’s like DFS, but weekly and free, and there are cash prizes! There’s no reason not to enter, and you can submit up to five lineups per week! Click the link here for our new Weekly Fantasy Football Contest!

Also, our Survivor Contest has returned as well. It’s free to enter, and you can win $350!

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins couldn’t move the ball whatsoever against the Cowboys until very late in the game. Jayden Daniels looked hindered by his rib injury despite having nine days of rest. His offensive line didn’t do him any favors by allowing lots of pressure to Micah Parsons and company.

The good news for Daniels is that the Titans have the third-worst pressure rate in the NFL, so he’ll have more time to throw in this game. He’ll have the luxury of battling a secondary missing both starting outside cornerbacks.

The Redskins should have plenty of success moving the chains aerially if Daniels’ health improves at all. Generating yardage on the ground will be a different story, however. The Titans are stout against the run, and both of Washington’s running backs are hurt.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Will Levis won’t sympathize with Daniels regarding pressure. Levis took nine sacks last week against the Texans. Granted, some of those sacks were his fault, but he has an ineffective offensive line blocking for him.

The Redskins generate a decent amount of pressure. They also blitz often, which is bad news for Levis because he struggles when blitzed. His completion percentage drops nearly 10 points; his YPA plummets by 1.3 yards; and his turnover-worthy play percentage rises by 0.7. Levis is known for making bone-headed decisions, so none of this should be surprising.

Levis will at least be able to lean on the running game. The Redskins struggle against the run, and Tony Pollard is coming off a stellar performance in Houston.

RECAP: There’s a huge overreaction regarding this spread. The Redskins were -8 on the advance line. Because of what transpired last week, it’s down to -5.5. That’s two-and-a-half points of line value through the key numbers of seven and six.

This value is too good to pass up, so I’ll be on Washington. The Redskins sleepwalked through last week’s game, so I’ll be shocked if they don’t rebound with a much better effort in this contest. Conversely, the Titans are a bad team coming off a victory. Bad teams have trouble sustaining success, so I love fading them following wins. And sure, the Titans won at Houston, so some might be quick to point out that they’re not a bad team. I would disagree with this, however, because the Titans were blown out against the Vikings and Chargers, and they needed overtime to beat the crappy Patriots.

My only worry is Daniels’ rib injury, but he’s another week removed from that, so he’ll be close to 100 percent soon. I’d rather be early than late on this, so I’m going to be betting Washington aggressively.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Brian Robinson was limited in Wednesday’s practice, which is a bit of a surprise because I expected him to be out this week. It’s tough to run on Tennessee’s defense, but Robinson at least gives the Redskins a better chance of doing so. Also, Marshon Lattimore was limited on Wednesday, so perhaps he’ll finally make his Washington debut.

PLAYER PROPS: No player prop bets in this game. I considered Will Levis over interceptions, but the number is a bit too high (-155 at DraftKings) when considering that the Redskins defense has just four picks all year. Tony Pollard’s over rushing yards are definitely worth betting if you think the Titans will win. Pollard has a great matchup, but I fear that the Titans may fall too far behind for him to run very much in the second half.

SATURDAY NOTES: Marshon Lattimore won’t make his debut for the Redskins, but Brian Robinson will play. Sharp money on Washington has taken this line up to -6.

FINAL THOUGHTS: It’s a shame that -5.5 is off the board, but the sharps bet Washington at that number. They haven’t done so at -6, but I still like the Redskins a lot there. The best number is -6 -103 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Redskins.

The Titans are a bad team coming off a win.

The Spread. Edge: Redskins.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Redskins -8.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Redskins -8.

Computer Model: Redskins -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

Slight lean on the Redskins.

Percentage of money on Washington: 61% (97,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Redskins.

Redskins are 12-28 ATS as home favorites of more than 4 since 2000.

Opening Line: Redskins -8.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 41 degrees. Light wind.