2024 NFL Picks – Week 13: Browns at Broncos

The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Denver, home of stupid hippies who do nothing but smoke marijuana! In tonight’s game, the Denver Nuggets take on the Cleveland Indians. Guys, how many times do I have to say this? No one cares about this game except for those stupid hippies. One guy offered me a weed, but I told him that Mother said it’s the Devil. Why am I not in Baltimore broadcasting my Philadelphia Eagles? This is an outrage. I’m the head honcho, and I should get to broadcast my Philadelphia Eagles every week!

Emmitt: Thanks, Edward. As a far of two son, Emmitt the IV Jr. the VIII Von Smith Esq. Jr. III, and Emmitt Snow Jr., I has to teach my son a lesson when they was youngkin. That lesson was you can always get what you want. My trueborn son always ask for lolliplop and so I gived it to him every time and then he get a cavity and has to go to the dental. And my bastard son always ask to go north to the Great Wall of Japan so he can get to the Sisterhood of the Night’s Clock, or something of that nature, so I let him goed and now he stuck there forever for all time, but at least he have sexual with ginger spice.

Reilly: Emmitt, I hope Emmitt Snow Jr. brought a condom with him so he can wear it just in case next time he talk to girls in the Sisterhood because Mother said that not only can you get pregnant from talking to girls, you can also get a disease like AIDS, Gonodiarrhea, and Ebola.

Tollefson: Reilly, as someone who has gotten many diseases from his dirty female sex slaves, I can tell you that it’s not all bad. Sure, it burns when you pee sometimes, and occasionally blood comes out of your anus, but it’s totally worth it.

Reilly: Tolly, I just hope you don’t get pregnant as well from talking to these heathen girls. Speaking of, Charissa Thompson is with another foreign leader tonight! Foreign leaders are constantly joining Charissa to argue for their country hosting international games after Roger Goodell stated that he wants to double the number of international games. Charissa, take it away!

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Mike. John Elway is out for today’s game. What a bummer! Anyhoo, it’s time to welcome in our new foreign leader. You, sir, look very sketchy, especially when you were leering at that little girl. What’s your name?

Prince Andrew: Hark, I am Prince Andrew, Duke of York, and I am here to represent the crown. Not only that, but I am also here to represent the many Americans who have been persecuted since the election of the evil dictator Donald Trump. Many celebrities had to flee the United States since the convicted felon Donald Trump got elected. Brave patriots like Eva Longoria, Minnie Driver, Sharon Stone, and Ellen DeGeneres have all fled the country, while Robert De Niro, Cher, and Bruce Springsteen have all announced that they plan on leaving. It’s horrible that these poor celebrity patriots, who have done nothing wrong, have to flee the country. All because a convicted felon was elected. What happened to American democracy?

Charissa Thompson: Did you just say you’re Duke of New York? That’s pretty cool. But what does this have to do with hosting NFL games?

Prince Andrew: Now that some of the proud celebrity patriots have taken refuge with me, we can fill stadiums to capacity by having these celebrities convince the British people that they should go to games. We have also harbored persecuted people like Marlon Winters, Jose Hernandez, and Guillermo Ramirez, and we plan on courting Bill Gates with many children to play with, and they’ll all convince people to come. We’ll even have a Bring a Child to the Game Night. It won’t even have to be your child. It’ll be glorious.

Reilly: Hold on, this sounds like a great idea, Maybe New Daddy will bring me to the game! New Daddy, will- wait, never mind, he’s asleep. Let’s ask Camel Toe Harris instead. Camel Toe Harris, can you bring me to the England games as your child?

Kamala Harris: I grew up in a middle-class family, which was not top class or bottom class. It was middle class. Because it was in the middle. But I want to be clear. Anyone who wants condoms should get condoms. Someone mentioned condoms before, and I think those are important. People in middle-class families don’t have access to condoms. But now they can be unburdened by what has been, just like I have with my husband leaving me. I’m looking for a new man, and I heard that there’s a head honcho here somewhere. Who’s the head honcho? I was not paying attention because I was being unburdened. Are you the head honcho, Donald?

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Kamala, I am the head honcho, because everyone voted for me, and no one voted for you, because you are a total loser and a total disgrace, and you are the opposite of a head honcho, you’re a foot honcho, and even that’s too high of praise, you’re the toe fungus honcho, and believe me, I know a lot about toe fungus, no one knows more about toe fungus more than Trump, no one has seen anything like it, and frankly, Sleepy Joe is also toe fungus, but Kamala is the darkest of toe fungus, even her husband, Douglas Emhoff, Little Dick Doug, we call him, Little Dick Doug is a total fraud and a total loser, and he doesn’t even want to be with Kamala, because she is the darkest of toe fungus, and believe me, Doug is dark toe fungus as well, but Kamala is the darkest toe fungus, and I’m the best toe fungus, at least that’s what I’ve been told, and no one has ever seen anything like it.

Wolfley: DONALD, ON MY HOME PLANET, TOE FUNGUS IS A DELICACY. THE DARKER THE BETTER. MY COUSIN, A PEAR WITH MICE FOR FEET, HAS OPENED UP A TOE FUNGUS RESTAURANT, AND BUSINESS IS BOOMING.

Reilly: Shut up, guys! Look, New Daddy is awake. New Daddy, can you bring me to the London games with Bill Gates and the boys he’s bringing to the game with him?

Jay Cutler: Wait, did I hear someone say something about condoms? That’s funny, condoms.

Reilly: New Daddy, focus! Please answer my question and stop talking about condoms!

Jay Cutler: Ha, you said condoms.

Reilly: New Daddy, enough about condoms! Please wear one so you don’t get pregnant when you talk to a girl, but stop talking about them!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you want to talk about sex prevention, Kevin. You mentioned condoms, Kevin. Let’s say the word again, Kevin, because you sound very excited about them, Kevin. Condoms, Kevin. Something you’ll never use, Kevin. Let’s talk about other avenues, Kevin. There’s birth control, Kevin. Let’s chat about diaphragms, Kevin. How about sterilization, Kevin? Another thing is withdrawal, Kevin. What about abstinence, Kevin? Something you won’t have an issue with, Kevin, just like not needing condoms, Kevin.

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, YOU’RE NOT MAKING ME TAKE OFF MY CONDOM WHICH I NEED TO WEAR IN CASE A GIRL TALKS TO ME! YOU’RE NOT GOING TO TRICK ME INTO GETTING PREGNANT! We’ll be back after this!

DENVER OFFENSE: Bo Nix continues to defy the odds as one of the top quarterbacks in his class. Nix has improved most weeks, most recently putting together his best outing against the Falcons. Nix wasn’t quite as good versus the Raiders, but still led the team to a 29-point output.

The Browns may seem like a tough matchup, but Cleveland’s defense is ranked just 21st in adjusted EPA heading into this week. The best thing the Browns do on this side of the ball is generate pressure, but the Broncos have a stellar offensive line that should keep Nix mostly safe.

With Nix protected, he should be able to take advantage of Cleveland’s great liability on this side of the ball, which would be defending outside receivers. Courtland Sutton should continue to remain hot.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Nix should play well, but I can’t say the same about Winston. The Broncos have one of the better defenses in the NFL. Not only can they get after the quarterback like the Browns can; they can also defend outside receivers with Patrick Surtain II. I imagine Surtain will be on former Broncos receiver Jerry Jeudy, especially if Cedric Tillman is sidelined.

The Broncos are capable of clamping down on the run as well. This is bad news for Nick Chubb, who needs all the help he can get right now. Chubb scored twice last week, but really doesn’t look like his former self. His offensive line opened up big running lanes against the Steelers, but those won’t be there versus Denver.

The only area in which the Browns should have success is with Winston targeting David Njoku, given that the Broncos can be weak to tight ends. However, this shouldn’t be enough for consistent offensive production in this game, especially when factoring in the potential interceptions.

RECAP: I’ve said this several times this week and previous weeks as well: I love fading bad teams coming off wins. Bad teams have trouble sustaining success and end up losing their follwing game as a result.

I’m obviously referring to the Browns. They just won their second “Super Bowl,” beating the Steelers. Following their first “Super Bowl” win – their upset victory over the Ravens – they were dismantled by the Chargers. I believe they’ll be treated similarly by the Broncos.

It’s also difficult to ignore the quarterback versus defense matchup in this game. The Broncos have one of the best defenses in the NFL. They produce pressure at a top-five clip in the NFL. Winston has some great ability, but he can also destroy his team’s chances with horrible interceptions. Winston threw three of those against the Chargers and easily could have had a couple more. Winston is likely to give the ball away at a high rate in this game as well.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We’re going to have Andy Iskoe on the WalterFootball After Dark Show on Thursday night. I know he likes the Broncos a lot, so I’m curious to hear his analysis on the game!

SATURDAY NOTES: The Browns haven’t seen Jedrick Wills, Juan Thornhill or Cedric Tillman practice at all this week. Denver still looks great.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I think I’m going to lock in this pick at some point today. I’m worried about the line going to -6.5.

LOCKED IN: As promised, I’m locking in the Broncos because I don’t want to see this line go to -6.5. We’re actually getting a -5.5 line for -115 vig at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: I’m glad we locked this in yesterday evening because this line is now -6.5 in some places. The best spread I see is -6 -114 at BetRivers.

PLAYER PROP & SAME-GAME PARLAY: We’re going to be fading Nick Chubb tonight. Chubb had a fluky game against the Steelers because the Browns happened to be ahead. He’ll regress tonight against a defense that hasn’t allowed a 40-yard rusher in four weeks. The best number is under 51.5 rushing yards -110 at FanDuel.

We’re going to throw in the Chubb under in a same-game parlay, though I will say that a same-game parlay is difficult tonight because Sean Payton constantly shuffles in different personnel each week. We don’t even know who his starting running back is, for instance. We do know, however, that Courtland Sutton and DeVaughn Vele will be involved, so we’re going to put their over 66.5 and 38.5 yards in the parlay. We’re also going under on David Njoku (46.5). The Broncos have been outstanding against tight ends recently. This $25 parlay pays $252.08 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m very glad to have locked in the Broncos -5.5 -115 because every sportsbook now has -6.5 listed, thanks to sharp action moving this line in Denver’s direction. I still like Denver at -6.5, but keep in mind that six is the No. 3 key number in the NFL. The best line is -6.5 -102 at FanDuel.

The Motivation. Edge: Broncos.

The Browns are a bad team coming off a win.

The Spread. Edge: Broncos.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Broncos -7.

Computer Model: Broncos -8.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

Lots of money on the Broncos.

Percentage of money on Denver: 73% (248,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

Opening Line: Broncos -7.5.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Clear, 44 degrees. Light wind.