2024 NFL Picks – Week 13: Bears at Lions

The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

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Week 12 Analysis: We lost our top pick, taking a huge loss with the Redskins. We won our two four-unit selections, but the Washington defeat was painful. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Redskins, 5 units (loss): The Redskins were sleepwalking through this game. They made so many careless mistakes. It’s almost like they forgot they were coming off consecutive losses. They weren’t looking ahead to anything either, so I don’t get why they were so flat.

Buccaneers, 4 units (win): This one was never in doubt.

Patriots, 3 units (loss): I don’t get how the Dolphins go from struggling to put the Raiders away to blowing out the Patriots with a Thursday game next.

Titans, 3 units (loss): I regret this pick the most. Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik can’t adjust his game plan, so when the Texans can’t run the ball, they tend to struggle. Still, I didn’t expect Will Levis to look like Brett Favre.

Broncos, 4 units (win): Amazingly, Desmond Ridder almost back-doored us. That would have been so absurd, so thankfully it didn’t happen.

Chargers, 3 units (loss): The Chargers led 10-0 and trailed 17-16 entering the fourth quarter, but they committed so many holding penalties and couldn’t stop Baltimore once on fourth down.

DETROIT OFFENSE: If you can’t stop the run, you have no chance against the Lions. The one team to beat Detroit this year was the Buccaneers, who excel against the rush with Vita Vea. Recent opponents of the Lions like the Colts and Jaguars didn’t stand a chance with their soft run defenses.

The Bears cannot stop the run either. We just saw Aaron Jones gash them with ease, so the Lions will be able to move the chains on the ground. David Montgomery may miss this game, but that just means that Jahmyr Gibbs will get more touches.

This great rushing threat will make things very easy for Jared Goff. Then again, the Bears haven’t generated lots of pressure lately, so it probably wouldn’t matter anyway. Chicago surrendered a huge game to T.J. Hockenson last week, so perhaps Sam LaPorta will have a big game despite enduring an inconsistent season.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: If the Bears want to match the success the Lions have enjoyed in recent years, they’ll need to beef up their offensive line. The blocking has been poor for Caleb Williams, who often takes unnecessary sacks.

Williams will see lots of pressure in this game. The Lions rank sixth in pressure rate despite the Aidan Hutchinson injury, so they’ll be able to get after the rookie quarterback consistently. Williams won’t be able to lean on D’Andre Swift either, given that Detroit is stellar at stopping the rush.

Williams’ best bet is to connect with Keenan Allen once more. Allen had been struggling for most of the year, but finally came to life last week. The Lions allow lots of production to slot receivers, though this probably won’t be enough for Chicago.

RECAP: I have a few primary rules for Thursday and London games. One of them is to bet the better team if they’re going to be focused. The reason for this is that bad teams don’t have a chance to formulate a great game plan against a superior foe, which gives the better team a big advantage.

The Lions are obviously the better team, but will they be focused? Sure, this is a divisional game, but they’re favored by double digits. I don’t know if the Bears will have their full attention. And sure, there’s the possibility that the Lions could remember what transpired last Thanksgiving as a reminder that they may need to take this game seriously, but they’re still huge favorites against a team with a losing record.

It must also be pointed out that the Bears have been playing better of late. They’re 4-7, but if you reverse a Hail Mary, a blocked field goal, and an overtime result, they’d be 7-4. Their offense has looked better since the offensive coordinator change, so there could be a back-door cover.

Despite all of this, I’m still going to be on the Lions. Detroit is just so much better than everyone else right now. The team appears to be on a mission, so it shouldn’t surprise anyone if it covers this large number. Plus, the Lions fit the other rule I have for Thursday, which is to fade teams coming off overtime affairs. Teams that previously endured overtime prior to their Thursday games are a pathetic 6-25 against the spread. If you’re wondering how double-digit underdogs fare in this dynamic, they’re 0-3 against the spread.

Our Week 13 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

PLAYER PROP BET & SAME-GAME PARLAY: My favorite prop bet from this game is Jahmyr Gibbs over rushing yards. The Bears are weak to the run, and David Montgomery is banged up, so he may not get his usual workload. The best number is over 71.5 rushing yards -113 at FanDuel.

We’re throwing the Gibbs rushing prop into a same-game parlay with Caleb Williams over 31.5 rushing yards, Keenan Allen over 49.5 receiving yards, and Sam LaPorta over 36.5 receiving yards. The Lions allow lots of rushing yards to quarterbacks, and Williams has been running more since the offensive coordinator change. The Lions also are weak to slot receivers, and Allen had a great performance on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Bears tend to allow plenty of receiving yards to tight ends. This $25 parlay pays $266.76 on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

I’m also going to be doing a Thanksgiving mega parlay that is comprised of all my favorite props from each game. The following will be in the parlay: Jahmyr Gibbs over 71.5 rushing yards, Caleb Williams over 31.5 rushing yards, Keenan Allen over 49.5 receiving yards, Lions -9.5, Giants +3.5, Rico Dowdle over 66.5 rushing yards, Tucker Kraft over 31.5 receiving yards, Jonnu Smith over 48.5 receiving yards. This $20 parlay pays $3,122.94 on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Bears down to +9.5. I was wondering if that was because of an Amon-Ra St. Brown injury, but St. Brown is expected to play. Taylor Decker, conversely, is out, as is Carlton Davis. I still like the Lions for three units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: We finally had some take-back on the Lions with the line shifting to -10. The majority of the sharp money is on the Bears. The Lions will have Amon-Ra St. Brown and David Montgomery, but will be without Taylor Decker, which is a bit of a bummer. In addition to betting the Lions, I’m going to bet a half unit on the -19.5 +280 at FanDuel. The best line is -9.5 -112 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Lions.

The Bears will be exhausted following their overtime game.

The Spread. Edge: Lions.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -11.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -11.

Computer Model: Lions -13.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.

Good action on the Lions.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 78% (328,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.