NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 13, 2025 – Early Games

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2025): 9-7 (-$725)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2025): 7-9 (-$925)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2025): 6-10 (-$1,285)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2025): 6-10 (+$410)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2025): 8-6 (-$25)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2025): 8-7 (-$785)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2025): 9-6 (+$1,160)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2025): 9-4 (+$115)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2025): 8-6 (-$545)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2025): 7-6-1 (+$1,260)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2025): 5-9-1 (-$480)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2025): 5-8-1 (-$1,485)
2025 NFL Picks: 96-90-4 (-$2,420)

2024 NFL Picks: 144-136-12 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Nov. 30, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 13 NFL Picks – Late Games

The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

Week 12 Analysis: Another sh**ty Sunday with variance not going our way. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Lions, 5 units (loss): I handicapped three Sunday games poorly, and this was one of them. I didn’t think the Lions would look ahead to Thanksgiving because they were coming off a loss, but I think once it was announced that Jaxson Dart wouldn’t play, they didn’t take the Giants seriously.

Patriots, 5 units (loss): Two back-door covers went against us on Sunday, and this was the first. The Bengals had scored just six offensive points the entire game until their back-door touchdown at the very end. Had the Patriots just scored a touchdown on one of the 10 f**king plays they had from the 1-yard line on two separate drives, the Bengals wouldn’t have been in a position to cover. Seriously, how can you not score a touchdown on one of 10 plays from the 1-yard line? Run a f**king QB sneak!

Seahawks, 3 units (loss): The Seahawks were up by a million points throughout this entire game, but the Titans had a back-door cover in the final minute. This wouldn’t have been possible if they hadn’t scored on a punt return touchdown earlier. I would love for once to get a special-teams touchdown our way. I’m being serious when I say that I think every single special teams touchdown has gone against us this year, including that ridiculous Jordan Davis blocked field goal return back in September. That was the start of this horrible variance that has been plaguing us all year.

Vikings, 2 units (loss): I’m including this as the second game I handicapped poorly. Betting on J.J. McCarthy was a huge mistake. That said, we had more special-teams nonsense go against us when the Vikings muffed a punt return down 10-6 in the third quarter to set up a Green Bay touchdown. I still think we would have lost, but that muffed punt didn’t help matters.

Saints, 2 units (loss): The third game I handicapped poorly on Sunday. At least I dropped the unit count from three to two on Sunday morning. I should have moved it to zero once I realized I couldn’t justify putting the Saints on any of my contest cards.

49ers, 4 units (win): Hey, we didn’t get back doored this time. Hurray!

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions had an incredible matchup against the Giants last week, so it’s disappointing that they didn’t cover the spread as a result of being unfocused for this game. Jahmyr Gibbs still rushed for 200-plus yards, and yet the Lions had to go to overtime to defeat the sorry Giants.

The Packers are much better against the run than the Giants. They aren’t amazing at it – they’re ranked 12th in that regard – but they’ll be able to do a much better job of limiting Gibbs than New York. Gibbs still figures to rush for big gains, but he won’t completely dominate this week.

Jared Goff needs Gibbs to have a monster game so he can avoid Micah Parsons. All quarterbacks are worse when pressured, but Goff takes it to another level. He becomes a mere shell of himself when the other team can generate tons of heat. We saw that from him in the Week 1 matchup against these same Packers.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: It’s frustrating how inconsistent “No Cookie” Jordan Love can be. Love completed 20 consecutive passes against the Steelers in complete domination, and yet he barely looks like a functional quarterback at times.

Love, however, tends to dominate the Lions. He did so a couple of Thanksgivings ago with some deep throws to Christian Watson. Given how poorly the Lions defended Jameis Winston’s throws to Wan’Dale Robinson and Isaiah Hodgins, it’s reasonable to expect another strong outing from Love and his receivers.

Love will also be able to lean on his running back, whether it’s Josh Jacobs or Emanuel Wilson. The Lions were much stronger against the run earlier in the season, but they’ve gotten worse against it. Since the beginning of October, the Lions are just 20th versus the rush, so either Jacobs or Wilson will be able to pick up some chunks on the ground.

RECAP: The Lions opened as three-point favorites, but the sharps bet the Packers down to +2.5 early on Monday. That’s unfortunate because I had interest in the Packers at +3 as well. I still like them at +2.5, but not as much.

The Packers have had the Lions’ number when they’ve had a mostly healthy team. Detroit swept the series last year, but Love was completely banged up in the first meeting. The second matchup saw the Lions win, but only by three despite being the superior team playing at home. Otherwise, the Packers have won these contests.

Given that the Lions have issues defending the pass, as a result of injuries to their secondary, I think it’s reasonable to expect the Packers to generate enough offense to win this game. Meanwhile, Green Bay’s pressure should once again befuddle Goff.

Our Week 13 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Something I forgot to mention is that teams coming off overtime games tend to perform poorly on Thursdays. They are 7-25 against the spread in that scenario. However, the Giants-Lions overtime didn’t really feel like an overtime because the Lions scored right away, and then the Giants had a quick drive.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: I like Christian Watson over 55.5 receiving yards -117 (at BetRivers). Detroit has struggled against the pass recently, and Watson has had some great games against them in the past. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

I’m parlaying Watson’s over 59.5 receiving yards, Jahmy Gibbs over 5.5 receptions, and David Montgomery under 36.5 rushing yards at DraftKings, which has a 30-percent parlay boost. This $25 parlay pays $187. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharp action has been mixed on this game. Pro money has come in on both the Packers +3 and Lions -2.5. I still like Green Bay, but it has to be at +3. The best line is +3 -105 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -3.

Computer Model: Lions -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 55% (235,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

History: Lions have won 6 of the last 8 meetings.

Packers are 69-45 ATS in divisional games since 2006.

Matt LaFleur is 62-47 ATS in the regular season.

Dan Campbell is 3-0 ATS in same-season revenge games.

Lions are 7-12 ATS as a Thanksgiving host since 2002.

Opening Line: Lions -3.

Opening Total: 49.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs looked like they were once again going to have a meltdown versus the Colts. They trailed 20-9 in the fourth quarter as a result of numerous mistakes. Patrick Mahomes was also unwilling to scramble for some reason. The Chiefs, however, rallied and won in overtime as a result of some Mahomes scrambles. Kansas City also stopped making blunders, which was obviously a big help.

The Chiefs will have an easier matchup on this side of the ball this week. The Cowboys have improved against the run with Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson now on the roster, but they still figure to struggle against the pass. We just saw Jalen Hurts torch their secondary with a struggling A.J. Brown, so Mahomes should do well with throws to Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce. It would help if Mahomes continued to scramble as well.

Mahomes won’t be able to lean on the run like he did in the fourth quarter. Kareem Hunt was solid at the end of the Colts game, but we just saw the Cowboys limit Saquon Barkley to 22 rushing yards. Even Isiah Pacheco’s potential return won’t help very much.

DALLAS OFFENSE: While the Chiefs should have their way with the Dallas defense, stopping the Cowboys offense will be a different story. Dak Prescott has been on fire since the bye, which includes an incredible comeback against the Eagles this past Sunday.

Steve Spagnuolo is a brilliant defensive coordinator who specializes in erasing the opposing No. 1 receiver. But what’s he going to do about the Dallas situation, given that the Cowboys have two No. 1 receivers? George Pickens has been incredible lately, and we know how great CeeDee Lamb is.

The one positive thing you can say about Kansas City’s matchup on this side of the ball is that the Chiefs should be able to contain Javonte Williams. Kansas City just clamped down on Jonathan Taylor, so Prescott won’t be able to lean on Williams like he has in some other matchups.

RECAP: This would be an easy selection if the Chiefs were taking on the Cowboys prior to the trade deadline. However, Williams and Wilson have made the Cowboys’ horrendous defense markedly better. Dallas’ stop unit isn’t great or anything, but it can be close to being in the middle of the pack, which, when combined with the offense, makes the Cowboys a formidable team.

I want to say that the Chiefs will come through in the clutch once again, especially on a national stage. However, this line means that they could do so and not cover the spread. Three is the most likely result of any NFL game, and this line is exactly Kansas City -3 after the sharps bet Dallas at +3.5. The Chiefs prevailing by three is the most likely outcome.

I’m still going to be on the Chiefs because I consider them to be the better team, and I think it’s more likely that they win by more than three rather than they win by fewer than four or lose outright, but it’s pretty close. I don’t see myself betting this game, barring some unexpected surprises on the injury report.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This is still a lean on the Chiefs, with nothing really changing in the past 48 hours. It’s worth noting that the sharps bet the Cowboys at +3.5, but not at +3.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I didn’t like any of the props in this game. And the sharps can’t come to a consensus here. The pros have bet the Cowboys at +3.5 and the Chiefs at -3. The best line is Chiefs -3 -125 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Chiefs.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -3.5.

Computer Model: Cowboys -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

Slight lean on the Cowboys.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 63% (263,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Patrick Mahomes is 106-30 SU, 71-63 ATS (57-49 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Cowboys are 25-17 ATS after playing the Eagles since 2000.

Dak Prescott is 41-33 ATS at home.

Opening Line: Chiefs -3.5.

Opening Total: 51.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Unknown.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were: 34-42 in 2020, 48-37 in 2021, 32-35-1 in 2022, 31-27 ATS in 2023, and 49-45 in 2024. The public was 17-32-1 heading into Week 12.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Seahawks -12.5

Browns +3.5

Lions -10

Bills -5.5

Patriots -7

The public went 1-4 in Week 1, 1-3 in Week 2, 0-3 in Week 3, 1-4 in Week 4, 1-3 in Week 5, and 1-3 in Week 6. The public finally had a winning week in Week 7, going 2-1. As for Week 8, the public was an even 3-3. It also went 3-3 in Week 9 and then 2-2 in Week 10. In Week 11, the public continued to lose, going 2-3-1. The public continued to immolate itself in Week 12, going 1-4 because of two back-door touchdowns.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Giants +7.5

Vikings +10.5

Panthers +10.5

Broncos -6.5

Texans +4.5

Four underdogs! What’s happening here!?

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens have failed to cover the spread by a half point in each of their previous two games. They’ve been a disappointment offensively, struggling to move the ball on the Jets’ poor defense last week. Lamar Jackson’s inability to scramble effectively has been the primary catalyst for this.

It’s unlikely that Jackson will suddenly be able to run well after just three days of rest, but he may not need to in this matchup. The Bengals have a horrendous defense that can’t generate pressure without Trey Hendrickson or stop tight ends over the middle of the field. Hunter Henry just logged 100-plus receiving yards against Cincinnati, so imagine what Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely will be able to accomplish.

The Bengals are also poor against the run, ranking 29th in that regard. Jackson will be able to feed Derrick Henry, who will pick up big chunks with his rushing attempts.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: It’s unclear if Joe Burrow will be able to play, but it certainly seems to be trending that way. Burrow practiced fully last Wednesday and Thursday, so he could be ready to go on Thanksgiving night.

Burrow would have had much more success against the Ravens back in early October when Baltimore was missing half of its defense, but that’s not the case anymore. The Ravens rank sixth in defensive EPA and eighth against the pass. They also won’t have to worry about Tee Higgins, who is in concussion protocol. Ja’Marr Chase, however, has enjoyed huge games against Baltimore in the past and figures to do the same with Burrow back under center, assuming Burrow is remotely healthy.

The Ravens are even better against the run, ranking fourth in that category. Chase Brown won’t be able to do much on the ground, but could have some success as a receiver out of the backfield.

RECAP: There are some unknowns in this game. We don’t know if Jackson will be healthy enough to scramble. He wasn’t against the Jets, but perhaps he will be in this game. If I had to guess, he won’t be because he’s had just three days to recover from the victory over the Jets, but you never know. Professional athletes can resemble superhumans sometimes, so I wouldn’t put it past Jackson to suddenly be healthy enough to run all over the Bengals.

Another question mark is Burrow’s status. Will he be anywhere close to 100 percent? Perhaps he will because he was able to put together two full practices last week, but if the Bengals lied on the injury report, it wouldn’t be the first time a team did that this year. Burrow could be healthy, or he could be a shell of himself. There’s no way of knowing until we actually see him play.

I can’t have a play on this game, given the unknowns regarding each quarterback. I’m more likely to side with the Bengals because we’ve seen Jackson struggle to run, and there’s always a chance Burrow could get a back-door cover even if he’s not 100 percent. This might be a game to bet live if Burrow looks great right away.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We’re going to be betting this one live depending on how each quarterback looks, so stay tuned for that. You can see my live bets on X by following me @walterfootball.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: Mark Andrews is the play here, given that the Bengals are dreadful against tight ends. We’re going to ladder him as well, with FanDuel offering a 50-percent boost. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

We’re going to DraftKings for our same-game parlay because they’re offering a 30-percent boost. We’re going with Andrews over 39.5 receiving yards, Isaiah Likely over 26.5 receiving yards, and Mike Gesicki over 36.5 receiving yards. This $25 parlay pays $171. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I wish we had some clarity regarding the health of the two quarterbacks. The sharps apparently don’t need clarity because they beat the Ravens at -7. The best line for the Bengals is +8 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Bengals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -7.5.

Computer Model: Ravens -4.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.

Some action on the Bengals.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 64% (241,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Ravens have won the last 4 meetings.

Joe Burrow is 44-23 ATS when not favored by more than a touchdown (5-6 ATS otherwise).

Opening Line: Ravens -7.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: Clear, 36 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s something from Twitter:

I’m offended that this guy thinks I’m charging for the site. If I’m charging for the site, I must be doing a poor job because everyone reading this is doing so for free.

This guy might be even dumber:

Imagine not being able to use a Web site on a phone. This site works fine for me on the phone. Sure, there are a lot of ads, but we have an ad-free version, and I don’t think the ads are that bad anyway, but maybe I’m biased.

Here is the stupidity award winner of the week:

This Jeb guy is a complete imbecile for thinking that men can become women, and vice versa, even though it has never happened in the history of humanity. What a moron!

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: I’ve discussed how much different the Eagles are without Lane Johnson ad nauseum. Their offensive efficiency plummets without Johnson, no matter if the quarterback is Jalen Hurts, Nick Foles, or Carson Wentz. That didn’t seem to be the case early last week against Dallas when the Eagles posted 21 points in the opening half, but Johnson was sorely missed in the second half when the Eagles collapsed.

Despite what I just said, I don’t think the Eagles will necessarily miss Johnson in this game. That’s because the Bears have the worst pressure rate in the NFL. No team gets to the quarterback less often than Chicago, so Hurts will have all the time he needs to locate the emerging A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith going against a beat-up secondary with two injured cornerbacks.

Speaking of injured players, the Bears are also missing their top two linebackers. This has made them far worse against the run. Perhaps we’ll see Saquon Barkley have a rare great performance. Barkley trampled over the Giants’ inept run defense several weeks ago, so he could have similar success against the Bears.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Caleb Williams has made strides this year with an enhanced offensive line and a superior coaching staff, but he still makes bone-headed plays like the one he was guilty of against the Steelers where he held the ball for an eternity in his own end zone, only to lose a fumble that was recovered for a touchdown. Williams wasn’t even battling a tough defense, and he made that mistake.

Thinking about Williams not battling a tough defense made me think – when has Williams battled top defenses this year, and how has he done against them? The Eagles, of course, sport one of the best defenses in the NFL, so we need to see how Williams has fared against top competition. The answer is that he hasn’t really had the opportunity outside of a couple of instances. The only defenses currently ranked in the top 10 that Williams has faced this season are the Ravens and Lions. In those games, Williams scored an average of 18.5 points per game. His stats weren’t horrible, but his performance against Detroit was a byproduct of garbage time.

Williams sometimes gets into a habit of holding on to the ball too long, which will cost him dearly in this game. Williams won’t be able to rely on the running game because the Eagles are stout versus the rush, so he could have his worst performance of the season against Philadelphia’s elite defense.

RECAP: The Eagles have the matchup and spot edges in this game. We’ve discussed the matchups already. The Bears have an injury-ravaged defense that can’t generate any pressure on opposing quarterbacks, so Philadelphia’s offense figures to thrive, even without Lane Johnson. Meanwhile, Williams hasn’t yet succeeded against a top-10 defense, so Philadelphia’s stop unit figures to feast in this matchup. The spot, meanwhile, also goes to the Eagles because they’re the better team coming off a loss. They’ve been hearing about it all week because Dallas is such a bitter rival, so this is a perfect get-right game for them.

I also think we’re getting quality line value with the Eagles. I made this spread -8.5. You might be wondering why I have the line so high with both teams having the same record, and it’s because the Bears’ 8-3 record is a farce. They have a negative point differential, so they are bound to regress to the mean.

The Eagles are my favorite side of all the Thursday and Friday games. This play would have a much higher unit count if Johnson were available, but the Eagles are still far superior compared to Chicago without him.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still like the Eagles, but if you bet them, and they get out to a big lead, you should consider hedging with the Bears at halftime, given how many leads Philadelphia has blown this season.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY : DraftKings has a 12-1 pm flash sale on an anytime touchdown scorer. We can take Saquon Barkley from -125 to +104, up to $30.

The 1-2 pm flash sale concerns the receiving props. We can get Dallas Goedert over 36.5 receiving yards +115, up to $30.

DraftKings is offering a 30-percent parlay boost. We’re going to use Saquan Barkley over 79.5 rushing yards, Dallas Goedert over 36.5 receiving yards, and Caleb Williams over 22.5 rushing yards. This $25 parlay pays $187. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Bears are down their top three linebackers, so the Eagles look great. The sharps haven’t touched this game, but I’m going to bet the Eagles for three units. The best line is -7 -110 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: Eagles.

The Eagles are the better team coming off a loss.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -8.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -7.

Computer Model: Eagles -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 54% (27,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Eagles -7.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 43 degrees. Mild/heavy winds, 16 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Colts.

We have a new section on the site! we have a place for WalterFootball.com Video Content. We’ll be releasing short videos (8-20 minutes) on this page, with a new video each day. It’ll be a quick way to get NFL picks, fantasy football, and NFL Draft content.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts have maintained one of the top offenses in the NFL this season, while the Texans have an elite defense. This is a fascinating matchup to see which side will prevail.

Daniel Jones has been the pilot of the Colts offense, but Jonathan Taylor has been the engine. Taylor has enjoyed an Offensive Player of the Year-type season, but he was finally limited last week by the Chiefs. The result was a 20-point output in which the Colts couldn’t produce anything in the fourth quarter and overtime. The Texans are fifth against the run, so Taylor could have a similar performance this week. If so, Jones will have to overcome it and lead his team to victory, which he couldn’t do against the Chiefs.

It would be one thing if Jones had an easy matchup, but that’s hardly the case in this game. The Texans are even better against the pass compared to the run, so Jones has his work cut out for him. He’ll face tons of pressure from a front that sacked Josh Allen eight times, and his receivers will have to somehow get open against some elite defensive backs.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: While the matchup between the Colts offense and the Texans defense figures to be close, the matchup on the other side of the ball has a rather large disparity. The Colts, ranked 13th in defense, get to go against a Houston scoring unit that can’t pass protect whatsoever.

The Colts aren’t as great up front since losing DeForest Buckner, but they can still generate pressure on the quarterback. They were able to harass Patrick Mahomes last week, and they’ll do the same to C.J. Stroud, who is stationed behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Stroud and his receivers will also have to battle two fantastic outside cornerbacks, with Charvarius Ward now healthy enough to start across from Sauce Gardner.

Indianapolis is weaker to the run than the pass because of Buckner’s absence. However, it remains to be seen if the Texans can take advantage of this. They don’t have a great rushing attack, and Woody Marks was solid, but not great against Buffalo’s poor rush defense last Thursday.

RECAP: The Texans were able to win a few games, and now everyone wants to bet on them. The Colts, meanwhile, lost to the Chiefs, and no one is giving them much of a chance. As of Tuesday afternoon, an obscene 75 percent of the betting action is on Houston +4.5.

I’m going to be on the other side. As mentioned, Colts offense versus Houston defense is fairly even, but Colts defense versus Houston offense is a big mismatch in the home team’s favor. Also, there’s no guarantee that Stroud will play well in his first game back from injury. He could be rusty, which only strengthens the Indianapolis argument.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: C.J. Stroud practiced fully on Wednesday, so he looks like he’s on track to return. I still would side with Indianapolis though, as people are jumping on the Houston bandwagon after their national TV win.

SATURDAY NOTES: I didn’t have much interest in this game earlier in the week, but some things fundamentally changed about this matchup, which would be Daniel Jones’ health. Jones will be playing with a fractured fibula, which sounds like a disaster waiting to happen, especially against Houston’s defense. We saw Carson Wentz and Baker Mayfield play through injuries, only for it to end in disaster, and we could see the same thing occur for the Colts. I’m going to bet three units on the Texans.

LOCKED IN & PLAYER PROP: The sharps have moved this line to +3 mostly. You can still get +3.5 -110 at DraftKings, so we’re locking that in now. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link. We’re going to bet Daniel Jones under 7.5 rushing yards -114 on FanDuel. Is Jones really going to run at all with a fractured fibula? I have my doubts. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m glad we locked in this pick on Saturday night. The sharps are on the Texans; they drove this line down to +3. You can’t find a +3.5 anywhere except for Bookmker, which lists this line at +3.5 -119. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Colts -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Colts -4.5.

Computer Model: Colts -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.

Some money on the Texans.

Percentage of money on Houston: 65% (96,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

History: Colts have won 32 of the 45 meetings, excluding a 2022 tie.

Opening Line: Colts -3.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Cardinals.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Futures page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: There’s good news concerning the Baker Mayfield situation. Mayfield suffered a bad-looking shoulder injury Sunday night, but luckily it’s only a sprained AC joint. Mayfield is considered week to week. He almost certainly won’t play in this game, but he could be back as soon as Week 14.

Teddy Bridgewater will get the start, which can’t give the Buccaneers too much confidence. All Bridgewater did in the second half against the Rams was toss passes out of bounds. Granted, he was battling against the No. 1 defense in the NFL, but the Cardinals are no slouches. They’re ranked 15th in defense. They’ve been solid on this side of the ball unless they’ve battled elite competition, which is not how I would describe the Buccaneers without Mayfield.

The Cardinals have suffered a decline in their defensive rankings lately because of some injured defensive backs. However, Will Johnson was close to playing last week, so he could return to the lineup this Sunday, which would be a huge boon for Arizona against Emeka Egbuka because Johnson has been its top cornerback this year. The Cardinals, however, aren’t very strong against the run (19th), so there could be some opportunities for the Buccaneers to run with Sean Tucker or perhaps even Bucky Irving.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Jacoby Brissett continued to perform well in relief of Kyler Murray. He broke the single-game completion records two weeks ago, and he went toe to toe with the Jaguars last week, but came up about 20 yards shy in overtime.

Brissett has done this without Marvin Harrison Jr., but Michael Wilson has stepped up his game. The Buccaneers may not have an answer for him if Jamel Dean is sidelined again. Meanwhile, Trey McBride figures to keep performing on an otherworldly level with Brissett.

One weakness the Cardinals won’t be able to exploit is the running game. Vita Vea is not healthy, and the Tampa Bay rush defense has struggled as a result. The Cardinals, however, don’t have any sort of rushing attack without James Conner or Trey Benson being healthy.

RECAP: I had interest in betting the Cardinals prior to Mayfield’s injury. That may seem strange, but they were +5.5 on the advance line. I made the spread Tampa Bay -1.5, as I consider these two teams to be even. There’s obviously a big disparity between these teams’ records, but remember that the Cardinals have lost six close games that really could have went the other way. If you just give them half of those wins, they’d have the same record as the Buccaneers, and then this line with Mayfield would be -2.5 or -3. Instead, we were getting 5.5 points, which was a gift.

Bridgewater will start in place of Mayfield, which has dropped this line to -3. I still like the Cardinals – my projected spread with Bridgewater is Arizona -1.5 – but there’s much less room for error with a spread of three. Also, I could see the Buccaneers rallying around Bridgewater. Average or better teams are capable of performing on a higher level with a backup quarterback when they’re not matched up against a top-10 defense. Arizona’s defense is better than people think, but it’s still ranked just 15th. Bridgewater won’t be nearly as bad as he was versus the Rams.

This game could really go either way, but I don’t want to bet against what could be an energized Buccaneer team. It’s sad that we have to pass on this game after liking it so much on the look-ahead, but that’s what we’ll have to do.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Bucky Irving reportedly will not get a full workload, so keep that in mind if you’re using his potential return as justification for betting this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: Can I copy-paste what I wrote for the Saturday notes in the Texans-Colts game? I had no interest in this game, but something fundamentally changed, and that would be Baker Mayfield’s status. Mayfield, expected to be week to week with a sprained AC joint, is trending toward starting, according to Todd Bowles. This is insane, and it’s only asking for trouble. I will be betting on the Cardinals, though I wouldn’t go crazy with it because Arizona has lots of injuries.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Buccaneers back at -2.5 when it was believed that Baker Mayfield would have a chance to play, but they haven’t bet either side at this new price. I like the Cardinals a bit, and the best line is +3.5 -108 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Buccaneers.

The Buccaneers could rally around Teddy Bridgewater.

The Spread. Edge: Cardinals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cardinals -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -5.5.

Computer Model: Cardinals -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

Equal action early, Baker action late.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 67% (75,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Buccaneers are 46-78 ATS at home in the previous 124 instances.

Opening Line: Bucaneers -5.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 81 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Jaguars.

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JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Trevor Lawrence continues to be maddeningly inconsistent. He made some tremendous throws against Arizona, but was guilty of some bone-headed turnovers, which has been par for the course for him.

Lawrence had a tougher battle than most people expected because Arizona entered this past week ranked 12th in defense. The Titans are obviously far worse. They’re a bit better now with Jeffery Simmons on the field again, but they still have severe issues stopping everything. They’re poor against both the run and the pass, so the Jaguars should have success doing whatever they need to do versus Tennessee.

If Lawrence can avoid his usual dumb mistakes, he should be able to have a great performance here, especially if Brian Thomas Jr. can return. He’ll also be able to rely on Travis Etienne, who will be able to pick up where Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet left off last week. The two Seattle backs gashed the Titans for 106 yards on just 17 carries.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The Titans are often just as bad on offense as they are on defense, but that wasn’t the case last week. Cam Ward had his best game as a pro thus far. Granted, most of his positive production came in garbage time, but we’ve seen him struggle in garbage time earlier in the season.

The biggest difference is that Ward began scrambling. Ward always had mobility, but inexplicably failed to utilize his legs in the first half of the season. If Ward continues to do this, he’ll have much more success because he’s currently someone who holds on to the ball way too long in the pocket, which results in plenty of sacks and turnovers. There’s no guarantee Ward will continue to run, but he’ll need to because the best aspect of Jacksonville’s defense is its edge rush.

Ward will have to take matters into his own hands because he won’t get much out of his running game. The Jaguars aren’t great versus the run, but they’re a healthy 14th against it.

RECAP: I imagine most of you are expecting me to fade the Titans again, but I’m not going to do that. In fact, I’m going to back the Titans for the first time all year.

This has very little with Tennessee covering its previous three games, though it must be acknowledged that the team hasn’t been as horrendous lately because of Simmons’ return to the field and Ward’s slight improvements. Again, Ward played well last week because of his scrambles. Perhaps we’ll see more of that in the coming weeks.

There are two reasons I’m backing the Titans. The first is that the Jaguars are not that good. They’re 7-4, but they’ve had so many bogus wins. They’ve had close calls against teams with horrendous records like the Raiders and Cardinals. They should be favored by 4.5 or so; not 6.5. The second reason is that the Jaguars have a huge game coming up next week versus the Colts, which could help decide the AFC South. I imagine they have one eye on that game.

I’m backing the Titans, so does that mean I’m actually betting on them? Hell no! I’m not putting my hard-earned money on the worst team in the NFL when they’ve needed punt returns to cover two of their previous three games.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Andy Iskoe and I had a long argument about this game. Check out the video below for that and much more:

SATURDAY NOTES: The Titans might be down a couple of offensive linemen. Center Lloyd Cushenberry is out, while tackle Dan Moore is questionable after being limited in practice all week. I’m still leaning toward Tennessee, but won’t be betting this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Arik Armstead is a surprise inactive for the Jaguars, so the Titans look a bit better. I can’t bet them. The sharps did, however, taking Tennessee at +6.5 and +6. The best line is +6 -112 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Titans.

The Jaguars play the Colts next.

The Spread. Edge: Titans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jaguars -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jaguars -7.

Computer Model: Jaguars -5.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

Slight lean on the Jaguars.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 68% (77,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.

History: Jaguars have won 5 of last 6 meetings.

Opening Line: Jaguars -6.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Chance of rain, 42 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

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I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The 49ers had a great mismatch Monday night with the Panthers missing their top two linebackers. Carolina also lost its best cornerback, Jaycee Horn, in the first half. You have to believe that Sean McVay noticed this in his preparation for this opponent.

Like Kyle Shanahan, McVay is an offensive guru, and he’ll be prepared to exploit Carolina’s weaknesses. Puka Nacua operates over the middle of the field, and the Panthers won’t have the personnel to stop him. Davante Adams, meanwhile, has been a touchdown machine, and he’ll have an easy time against Carolina’s secondary if Horn is sidelined, which is expected to be the case on a short week.

The Panthers aren’t great against the run either, as we’ve seen in some recent results. Kyren Williams will handle the workload in the second half when the Rams could be up by multiple touchdowns, and he’ll be able to close out this game.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Bryce Young appeared to fly a bit too close to the sun in his 450-yard effort against the Falcons. What the sports media to failed to note when mentioning this performance was that the Falcons were jetlagged off their 11-hour flight from Germany, so they were in no position to stop anyone. Young predictably came crashing back down to Earth versus the 49ers. He scored just nine points and threw two interceptions.

The thing is, Young didn’t even have a bad matchup on Monday night. He was shellshocked by a defense that generates no pressure on the quarterback. San Francisco’s defense is also down lots of talented personnel in the back seven. I was expecting more out of Young, and he produced only nine points, which was a pathetic showing.

If Young couldn’t get to double-digits against San Francisco’s skeleton-crew defense, or seven points against the Saints, what’s going to happen against the Rams’ No. 1 defense? The Rams put tons of pressure on the quarterback, unlike the 49ers, so Young will constantly be under siege and will make more mistakes as a result. Young won’t be able to lean on Rico Dowdle either because the Rams’ No. 2 ground defense will clamp down on him and force Young into unfavorable situations.

RECAP: The first thing I did when handicapping this game was look up the Rams’ impending opponent because everything else favors them in this game. They’re the far better team on both sides of the ball. They also have the more favorable scheduling spot because the Panthers are playing on one fewer day of rest as a result of their Monday night affair versus San Francisco. And sure, the Rams have to travel to play a 1 p.m. game on the East Coast, but this is a situation in which McVay has excelled over the years. McVay is 11-6 against the spread in 1 p.m. East Coast games, and that includes the BS loss to the Eagles earlier this season, so he should be 12-5.

The Rams, luckily, don’t have a look-ahead opponent because they’ll be taking on the 3-8 Cardinals next week. So, they should be fully focused on the Panthers, who have built up somewhat of a reputation at 6-6. And I say “luckily” because I love the Rams.

Both the matchup and the spot favor the Rams. We’ve discussed the matchups, but what about the spot? Sure, the Rams are coming off a win on national TV, but they tend to be focused in these early East Coast games. More prominently, the Panthers just played on Monday night, and bad teams really tend to struggle following Monday night affairs because they need more time to prepare for their next opponent than good teams. Given that, it should come as no surprise that non-winning teams off Monday night losses are 86-111 against the spread since 2010, which is just a 43.7-percent cover rate.

The Rams will be one of our highest plays of the week. Everything favors them here, so hopefully we’re not cursed with another bulls**t back-door cover.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Rams are still a top play for me. One thing I didn’t mention is that not only is Carolina playing on a short week, it’s also traveling across the country. This will make things very difficult for them against a far superior team.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Rams have a couple of players listed as questionable heading into this game – Poona Ford, Kamren Kinchens – but they otherwise look great as a big bet this week.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Believe it or not, the sharps bet the Panthers at +10.5 on Sunday morning. I don’t know why, but -10 is available across the board. The best line is -10 -110 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -10.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -9.5.

Computer Model: Rams -11.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

Slight lean on the Rams.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 68% (84,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: .

Opening Line: Rams -9.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 49 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

Video of the Week: I thought this was pretty cool: What would it be like to die on every other planet?

Oh man, so much for building a colony on Mars!

MIAMI OFFENSE: One of the best matchups of the entire Week 11 NFL slate occurred in Spain. It was De’Von Achane against the Redskins’ horrendously slow linebackers. Achane was supposed to be able to sprint through Washington’s horrendous defense with ease all morning. Achane wasn’t as dominant as I thought he would be, but he still had a great game, which allowed the Dolphins to prevail.

Achane’s matchup isn’t as juicy this week. The Saints, despite their poor record, are solid against the run. They’re ninth when it comes to stopping opposing backs, and they have the talent at linebacker to deal with Achane when he’s used as a receiving threat.

The Saints are incredibly weak to the pass, however. Even Kirk Cousins looked great against them last week, so Tua Tagovailoa has a shot to play well. It’s certainly not a guarantee, however, as Tagovailoa has been responsible for some horrendous performances this season. He wasn’t even that great in Spain versus Washington’s abysmal pass defense.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Tyler Shough’s performance against the Falcons can be described as abysmal. Then again, Shough didn’t have the best matchup at his disposal. He couldn’t solve the Falcons, who have maintained a strong aerial defense this year. They’re 14th versus the pass, but that includes Bryce Young’s 450-yard performance where he was able to benefit from Atlanta’s horrible jetlag from Germany.

Shough was much better against the Panthers the prior week, which wasn’t a surprise because Carolina is 27th against the pass. Miami is just as bad as the Panthers, ranking 26th in that regard. The Dolphins have no pass rush to speak of, unlike the Falcons, so Shough won’t be pressured nearly as often this week. He’ll be able to attack a horrible Miami secondary completely devoid of talent.

The only positive aspect of Miami’s defense is its ability to clamp down on the run. Like the Saints, the Dolphins are in the top 10 when it comes to containing rushing attacks, so Alvin Kamara won’t be much of a factor as a runner, if he even plays.

RECAP: This might be my November NFL Pick of the Month, and no, I’m not joking. I believe this is the greatest discrepancy I’ve had between the spread and my projected line all year. Miami is favored by six, and yet I have the Dolphins projected as a 1.5-point favorite.

If you’re wondering if this means that I have the Saints and Dolphins ranked evenly, then yes, I do. I have them both as Group F teams, and I don’t see much of a difference between the two. Achane is someone who sets these two rosters apart, but as mentioned earlier, the Saints have a top-10 run defense, so Achane won’t be able to meet his full potential in this game. New Orleans just did a great job of restricting Bijan Robinson, so Achane shouldn’t have a big game.

Otherwise, these teams are similar. Both defenses can’t generate pressure or stop the pass. Both defenses are strong against the run. Both teams have just one viable wide receiver, albeit two very good ones in Jaylen Waddle and Chris Olave. The Dolphins have Achane, while the Saints have the superior blocking unit. Tagovailoa has way more experience than Shough, but both quarterbacks suck. Tagovailoa has had some ghastly performances this year, and he’s 23rd in EPA amongst all starters. He’s a bottom-10 starting quarterback, as is Shough, obviously.

So, not only do we have a massive line edge in this game, we also have the edge in the spot. Miami is in a terrible spot. The team won prior to the bye, which is a horrible situation because the Dolphin players have been hearing about how nice the overseas win was for two weeks. It’s doubtful that they’ve been practicing very hard for this game. The Saints were in the same position themselves last week, as they were high off a win versus the Panthers heading into the bye.

Even if this doesn’t trip up the Dolphins, there is no reality in which they deserve to be favored by six points. I don’t quite know if the Saints will make it as my Pick of the Month, but this will be a huge play regardless.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Alvin Kamara didn’t practice Wednesday, but that was expected. Despite this, someone bet the Saints down to +5.5.

SATURDAY NOTES: Chris Olave is questionable after going limited-DNP-limited. I can’t bet the Saints highly if he’s out, so we’ll have to wait until Sunday morning to lock down a unit count for this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Chris Olave is in for the Saints, while Darren Waller will be active for the Dolphins. I still like the Saints, but a bit less than before. The sharps took New Orleans at +6. The best line is +5.5 -105 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: Saints.

The Dolphins had a win on an international stage prior to their bye.

The Spread. Edge: Saints.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Dolphins -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Dolphins -4.5.

Computer Model: Dolphins -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Saints.

Plenty of money on the Dolphins.

Percentage of money on Miami: 73% (78,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

Dolphins are 35-50 ATS at home against teams with losing records since 2003.

Opening Line: Dolphins -4.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Sunny, 80 degress. Mild wind, 12 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Falcons.

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ATLANTA OFFENSE: The demise of Kirk Cousins’ career was apparently greatly exaggerated, at least for one game. Cousins played much better than most anticipated last week, as he was able to lead the Falcons to victory. Granted, this occurred versus the Saints, but still, Cousins was an underdog and didn’t have his top receiver, and he was able to get the win.

Cousins has another easy matchup in this contest. The Jets traded away all of their defensive backs, which has rendered them inept at defending the pass. They’ve been especially poor against tight ends, so Cousins could have some consistent completions to Kyle Pitts. Darnell Mooney doesn’t have an impossible matchup either, and he showed signs of life last week as well.

Bijan Robinson, of all the players, didn’t have a strong performance against the Saints. However, New Orleans is known to have a solid run defense. The Jets do not. They’re ranked 24th in that, so Robinson figures to rebound. He’ll blast through big lanes to give the Falcons short-yardage situations for Cousins.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: For a while, it looked like Tyrod Taylor might pull off a huge upset against the Ravens last week. He engineered a touchdown drive on throws to John Metchie, giving the Jets a shocking lead at halftime. Taylor, however, couldn’t get anything going in the second half.

The Falcons have a great aerial defense, so Taylor won’t have any success in this game, outside of a potential rogue possession. Taylor is simply too limited and cannot threaten anyone downfield.

Taylor’s limitations will allow the Falcons to play closer to the line of scrimmage. This will be crucial against Breece Hall. The Falcons ordinarily struggle against the run, but with Taylor not being able to beat the Falcons downfield, Atlanta will be able to stack the box and concentrate on containing Hall.

RECAP: The Jets are one of the worst teams in the NFL, and yet we’re able to fade them for less than a field goal. This almost feels like a Black Friday special. FADE THIS GROUP F TEAM FOR JUST -2.5, ONLY THIS WEEK!

I like the Falcons a decent amount. They’re not one of my favorite plays, but they’re certainly better than the Jets. Everyone is down on the Falcons because they were blown out by the Panthers, but remember that they were jetlagged off their 11-hour flight from Germany. It was not a surprise that they played better versus the Saints. And if they won at the Saints, they can certainly win at New York. The Jets haven’t scored more than 14 points in any game since they’ve returned from their Week 9 bye, so getting to 17 shouldn’t be too much of a challenge for the Falcons against this horrible defense.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m starting to worry a bit that Kirk Cousins could regress to the mean after last week’s victory. Then again, I initially thought there was a decent chance he would play closer to his 2023 level than that of 2024 because he’s a year further removed from his torn Achilles.

SATURDAY NOTES: After thinking it over, I don’t want to bet the Falcons. I don’t trust Cousins after one win, especially as a road favorite while playing outside. I also don’t trust a Raheem Morris-coached team to show up after a win.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Falcons at -2.5. I was on Atlanta earlier in the week, but backed off because I didn’t really trust Kirk Cousins or Raheem Morris. Seeing this sharp money, I have a bit of FOMO, so I’m going to bet one unit on the Falcons. The best line is -3 -105 at ESPNBet, but if you want a real sportsbook, you can find +3 -108 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Falcons.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Falcons -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Falcons -1.5.

Computer Model: Falcons -4.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

Good action on the Falcons.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 69% (76,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Raheem Morris is 3-8 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.

Opening Line: Falcons -2.5.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Rain, 42 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Brock Purdy tried his hardest to potentially throw away a potential victory against the Panthers. He threw three interceptions in the first half alone, with one negating at least three points. Another gave three points to the Panthers. The 49ers, however, were able to overcome this and prevail by margin.

There will be no prevailing if Purdy commits three turnovers again this week. Purdy is battling a much tougher defense that clamps down over the middle of the field well, so the 49ers won’t have the same edges they enjoyed versus Carolina. On the flip side, the 49ers are one of the few teams that can deal with Myles Garrett because of Trent Williams’ presence.

Everything will go through Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle. I mentioned the Browns defending the middle of the field well, so Kittle doesn’t have a great matchup. The Browns are eighth against the run, so McCaffrey won’t have much running room.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Shedeur Sanders had a rocky debut in relief of Dillon Gabriel, but he was tremendous against the Raiders. He even threw a 66-yard pass to Dylan Sampson, which was a thing of beauty. If you didn’t see it, Sanders unloaded the ball with a deep shot to the flat, which Sanders grabbed quickly and then went the distance. Wow.

Obviously, this is a joke, and Sanders was just OK in his initial start. He made some nice plays, but was also guilty of some blunders. He was intercepted and didn’t see some open receivers, but he at least didn’t drift too much in the pocket. He probably won’t drift much here either because the 49ers have severe issues generating pressure. Sanders is well protected, so he’ll have enough time to exploit San Franciso’s weaknesses over the middle of the field.

The 49ers can at least stop the run, which will be crucial in this matchup. Sanders will want to feed the ball to Quinshon Judkins as often as possible, but San Francisco’s 10th ranking against the run means that this strategy won’t be very successful.

RECAP: This spread is a bit higher than I expected it to be. I made this 49ers -4, and I know from speaking to Evan Daniel, he made it -3. Yet, the 49ers are favored by five or 5.5, so we’re seeing slight value on the Browns. We’re getting a number near six with the home team and the better defense. The Browns have also enjoyed more rest than the 49ers, who have to travel across the country on a short week.

One other thing to consider is Purdy’s decision-making. It was brutal on Monday night, and perhaps he’s not 100 percent because of his lengthy absence. If there are still some lingering effects, Cleveland’s elite defense will be able to expose them.

I’m siding with the Browns, but I can’t say I’m crazy about it. I’m definitely not going to be riding Sanders for any sort of wager, despite how amazing that touchdown pass to Sampson was.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Kyle Shanahan won’t be able to orchestrate a great game plan like he did versus the Panthers because the Browns don’t have any weaknesses defensively.In the four games against top-10 defenses this year, the 49ers haven’t won by more than four on a single occasion.

SATURDAY NOTES: There may be some weather in this game, with potential snow and heavy winds. This seems to hurt the 49ers more than the Browns because Cleveland doesn’t pass all that well anyway. I’m going to end up betting Cleveland.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps haven’t had any interest in this game, outside of betting the under. The best line is +5.5 -110 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Browns.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -4.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -6.5.

Computer Model: 49ers -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on 49ers: 53% (99,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

Kyle Shanahan is 5-0 ATS after winning on Monday Night Football.

Kevin Stefanski is 15-25 ATS after a win.

Opening Line: 49ers -6.5.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Chance of snow, 34 degrees. HEAVY WINDS, 20 mph.