2025 NFL Picks – Week 13: Cardinals at Buccaneers

The Matchup. Edge: Cardinals.

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TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: There’s good news concerning the Baker Mayfield situation. Mayfield suffered a bad-looking shoulder injury Sunday night, but luckily it’s only a sprained AC joint. Mayfield is considered week to week. He almost certainly won’t play in this game, but he could be back as soon as Week 14.

Teddy Bridgewater will get the start, which can’t give the Buccaneers too much confidence. All Bridgewater did in the second half against the Rams was toss passes out of bounds. Granted, he was battling against the No. 1 defense in the NFL, but the Cardinals are no slouches. They’re ranked 15th in defense. They’ve been solid on this side of the ball unless they’ve battled elite competition, which is not how I would describe the Buccaneers without Mayfield.

The Cardinals have suffered a decline in their defensive rankings lately because of some injured defensive backs. However, Will Johnson was close to playing last week, so he could return to the lineup this Sunday, which would be a huge boon for Arizona against Emeka Egbuka because Johnson has been its top cornerback this year. The Cardinals, however, aren’t very strong against the run (19th), so there could be some opportunities for the Buccaneers to run with Sean Tucker or perhaps even Bucky Irving.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Jacoby Brissett continued to perform well in relief of Kyler Murray. He broke the single-game completion records two weeks ago, and he went toe to toe with the Jaguars last week, but came up about 20 yards shy in overtime.

Brissett has done this without Marvin Harrison Jr., but Michael Wilson has stepped up his game. The Buccaneers may not have an answer for him if Jamel Dean is sidelined again. Meanwhile, Trey McBride figures to keep performing on an otherworldly level with Brissett.

One weakness the Cardinals won’t be able to exploit is the running game. Vita Vea is not healthy, and the Tampa Bay rush defense has struggled as a result. The Cardinals, however, don’t have any sort of rushing attack without James Conner or Trey Benson being healthy.

RECAP: I had interest in betting the Cardinals prior to Mayfield’s injury. That may seem strange, but they were +5.5 on the advance line. I made the spread Tampa Bay -1.5, as I consider these two teams to be even. There’s obviously a big disparity between these teams’ records, but remember that the Cardinals have lost six close games that really could have went the other way. If you just give them half of those wins, they’d have the same record as the Buccaneers, and then this line with Mayfield would be -2.5 or -3. Instead, we were getting 5.5 points, which was a gift.

Bridgewater will start in place of Mayfield, which has dropped this line to -3. I still like the Cardinals – my projected spread with Bridgewater is Arizona -1.5 – but there’s much less room for error with a spread of three. Also, I could see the Buccaneers rallying around Bridgewater. Average or better teams are capable of performing on a higher level with a backup quarterback when they’re not matched up against a top-10 defense. Arizona’s defense is better than people think, but it’s still ranked just 15th. Bridgewater won’t be nearly as bad as he was versus the Rams.

This game could really go either way, but I don’t want to bet against what could be an energized Buccaneer team. It’s sad that we have to pass on this game after liking it so much on the look-ahead, but that’s what we’ll have to do.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Bucky Irving reportedly will not get a full workload, so keep that in mind if you’re using his potential return as justification for betting this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: Can I copy-paste what I wrote for the Saturday notes in the Texans-Colts game? I had no interest in this game, but something fundamentally changed, and that would be Baker Mayfield’s status. Mayfield, expected to be week to week with a sprained AC joint, is trending toward starting, according to Todd Bowles. This is insane, and it’s only asking for trouble. I will be betting on the Cardinals, though I wouldn’t go crazy with it because Arizona has lots of injuries.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Buccaneers back at -2.5 when it was believed that Baker Mayfield would have a chance to play, but they haven’t bet either side at this new price. I like the Cardinals a bit, and the best line is +3.5 -108 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Buccaneers.

The Buccaneers could rally around Teddy Bridgewater.

The Spread. Edge: Cardinals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cardinals -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -5.5.

Computer Model: Cardinals -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

Equal action early, Baker action late.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 67% (75,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Buccaneers are 46-78 ATS at home in the previous 124 instances.

Opening Line: Bucaneers -5.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 81 degrees. Light wind.