2025 NFL Picks – Week 13: Bengals at Ravens

The Matchup. Edge: Unknown.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were: 34-42 in 2020, 48-37 in 2021, 32-35-1 in 2022, 31-27 ATS in 2023, and 49-45 in 2024. The public was 17-32-1 heading into Week 12.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Seahawks -12.5

Browns +3.5

Lions -10

Bills -5.5

Patriots -7

The public went 1-4 in Week 1, 1-3 in Week 2, 0-3 in Week 3, 1-4 in Week 4, 1-3 in Week 5, and 1-3 in Week 6. The public finally had a winning week in Week 7, going 2-1. As for Week 8, the public was an even 3-3. It also went 3-3 in Week 9 and then 2-2 in Week 10. In Week 11, the public continued to lose, going 2-3-1. The public continued to immolate itself in Week 12, going 1-4 because of two back-door touchdowns.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Giants +7.5

Vikings +10.5

Panthers +10.5

Broncos -6.5

Texans +4.5

Four underdogs! What’s happening here!?

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens have failed to cover the spread by a half point in each of their previous two games. They’ve been a disappointment offensively, struggling to move the ball on the Jets’ poor defense last week. Lamar Jackson’s inability to scramble effectively has been the primary catalyst for this.

It’s unlikely that Jackson will suddenly be able to run well after just three days of rest, but he may not need to in this matchup. The Bengals have a horrendous defense that can’t generate pressure without Trey Hendrickson or stop tight ends over the middle of the field. Hunter Henry just logged 100-plus receiving yards against Cincinnati, so imagine what Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely will be able to accomplish.

The Bengals are also poor against the run, ranking 29th in that regard. Jackson will be able to feed Derrick Henry, who will pick up big chunks with his rushing attempts.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: It’s unclear if Joe Burrow will be able to play, but it certainly seems to be trending that way. Burrow practiced fully last Wednesday and Thursday, so he could be ready to go on Thanksgiving night.

Burrow would have had much more success against the Ravens back in early October when Baltimore was missing half of its defense, but that’s not the case anymore. The Ravens rank sixth in defensive EPA and eighth against the pass. They also won’t have to worry about Tee Higgins, who is in concussion protocol. Ja’Marr Chase, however, has enjoyed huge games against Baltimore in the past and figures to do the same with Burrow back under center, assuming Burrow is remotely healthy.

The Ravens are even better against the run, ranking fourth in that category. Chase Brown won’t be able to do much on the ground, but could have some success as a receiver out of the backfield.

RECAP: There are some unknowns in this game. We don’t know if Jackson will be healthy enough to scramble. He wasn’t against the Jets, but perhaps he will be in this game. If I had to guess, he won’t be because he’s had just three days to recover from the victory over the Jets, but you never know. Professional athletes can resemble superhumans sometimes, so I wouldn’t put it past Jackson to suddenly be healthy enough to run all over the Bengals.

Another question mark is Burrow’s status. Will he be anywhere close to 100 percent? Perhaps he will because he was able to put together two full practices last week, but if the Bengals lied on the injury report, it wouldn’t be the first time a team did that this year. Burrow could be healthy, or he could be a shell of himself. There’s no way of knowing until we actually see him play.

I can’t have a play on this game, given the unknowns regarding each quarterback. I’m more likely to side with the Bengals because we’ve seen Jackson struggle to run, and there’s always a chance Burrow could get a back-door cover even if he’s not 100 percent. This might be a game to bet live if Burrow looks great right away.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We’re going to be betting this one live depending on how each quarterback looks, so stay tuned for that. You can see my live bets on X by following me @walterfootball.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: Mark Andrews is the play here, given that the Bengals are dreadful against tight ends. We’re going to ladder him as well, with FanDuel offering a 50-percent boost. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

We’re going to DraftKings for our same-game parlay because they’re offering a 30-percent boost. We’re going with Andrews over 39.5 receiving yards, Isaiah Likely over 26.5 receiving yards, and Mike Gesicki over 36.5 receiving yards. This $25 parlay pays $171. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I wish we had some clarity regarding the health of the two quarterbacks. The sharps apparently don’t need clarity because they beat the Ravens at -7. The best line for the Bengals is +8 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Bengals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -7.5.

Computer Model: Ravens -4.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Unknown.

Some action on the Bengals.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 64% (241,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Unknown.

History: Ravens have won the last 4 meetings.

Joe Burrow is 44-23 ATS when not favored by more than a touchdown (5-6 ATS otherwise).

Opening Line: Ravens -7.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: Clear, 36 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.