NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 13, 2025 – Late Games

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2025): 9-7 (-$725)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2025): 7-9 (-$925)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2025): 6-10 (-$1,285)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2025): 6-10 (+$410)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2025): 8-6 (-$25)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2025): 8-7 (-$785)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2025): 9-6 (+$1,160)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2025): 9-4 (+$115)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2025): 8-6 (-$545)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2025): 7-6-1 (+$1,260)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2025): 5-9-1 (-$480)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2025): 5-8-1 (-$1,485)
2025 NFL Picks: 96-90-4 (-$2,420)

2024 NFL Picks: 144-136-12 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Nov. 30, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 13 NFL Picks – Early Games

The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

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MINNESOTA OFFENSE: J.J. McCarthy hasn’t been benched, but he won’t be playing this week. He allegedly has a concussion, so Max Brosmer will start. Apparently, the word for “benching” in the Somali-ridden Minneapolis-Twin Cities area is “concussion.”

McCarthy needed to be benched/concussed because he was the worst quarterback in the NFL. Even Shedeur Sanders showed better qualities. Brosmer can only be better, but it’s unclear how much better. Brosmer is an undrafted free agent rookie from New Hampshire. He’s a smart quarterback who has polished footwork and mechanics, but he has no arm strength or athletic ability. Perhaps he’ll be a viable backup in the NFL one day, but he’s rather limited in what he can do.

Given that Brosmer won’t threaten downfield, the Seahawks will eat him alive. Seattle has a monstrous defense capable of putting tons of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The Seahawks are also stout against the run, and they’ll be able to play closer to the line of scrimmage because of Brosmer’s limitations.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: I bet Kevin O’Connell wishes he still had Sam Darnold on the roster. O’Connell somehow picked McCarthy over Darnold, and I bet that Darnold remembers that. Darnold knows his former team, having gone against them in practice every day last year. He knows Brian Flores’ scheme, so that should bode well for him in this game.

Darnold has been exceptional when he doesn’t face much pressure. However, the pressure has to come when he’s not blitzed. Darnold is excellent against the blitz this year, completing 65 percent of his passes and maintaining a 10.3 YPA. The Vikings blitz more than any other team in the NFL, so Darnold will know what to do when he sees extra rushers.

The Seahawks should be able to have some quality runs as well. Kenneth Walker has been seeing more of a workload, and he should do well against a Minnesota defense that is 16th against the rush.

RECAP: Darnold isn’t the only person who knows that O’Connell picked McCarthy over him. His teammates know that as well, and they will have their leader’s back. Revenge narratives are often overblown, but this is a pure revenge situation. Darnold has every right to be upset with how his former team discarded him, and he’ll get the support from his teammates.

Given the revenge narrative, this is the perfect marriage between spot and matchup. The Seahawks obviously have the edge in the matchup because of the Vikings’ horrible quarterbacking situation, and they’ll have the motivation to get revenge for Darnold. Without a key opponent on the horizon – the Seahawks battle the Falcons next week – there’s every reason to believe that Seattle will be focused.

This is a big play on the Seahawks. They disappointed us last week with the Titans getting a back-door touchdown at the end, but Tennessee was able to do that via the help of a punt return touchdown. If we get beaten by a punt return for the millionth time this season, so be it, but I’m confident Seattle will destroy Minnesota.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This might actually be my Pick of the Month as well. I may bet the -20.5 alt line here as well.

SATURDAY NOTES: This is my November NFL Pick of the Month. Not only do we have matchup and spot edges for Seattle, we also have a big injury edge. The Vikings could be down two offensive linemen, with Donovan Jackson already being out and Christian Darrisaw barely practicing because of foot issues.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The Vikings will have Jonathan Greenard, but Christian Darrisaw is a true game-time decision.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Christian Darrisaw is out, so the Vikings will be missing the entire left side of their offensive line. The Seahawks should dominate, but maybe they’ll be like the Rams, who gave away a sure cover with dumb interceptions. The best line is Seattle -12 -105 at BetMGM. The sharps are on Seattle.

The Motivation. Edge: Seahawks.

Sam Darnold revenge.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -11.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -7.5.

Computer Model: Seahawks -12.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 52% (99,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

Seahawks are 62-49 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Seahawks are 10-17 ATS as a favorite of 6+ since 2017.

Opening Line: Seahawks -7.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 44 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

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BUFFALO OFFENSE: Josh Allen and Geno Smith don’t have much in common outside of the position they play professionally, but they shared a trait this past week, which is that they were both sacked into oblivion. The two combined to take 18 sacks. Somehow, they both made it out alive.

Looking at the edge-rushing matchup alone, Allen could be in danger of going down as often once again. The Steelers have a tremendous pass rush with T.J. Watt, so they’ll be able to hound Allen all afternoon unless Buffalo can get rolling with its rushing attack to keep Allen clean.

James Cook couldn’t do anything on the ground last week, but was battling Houston’s stalwart defense. Cook will have an easier time running against the Steelers. Whereas the Texans are fifth against the run, the Steelers are 27th. Cook’s expected great rushing will ensure that Allen isn’t beaten up in this game.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: There aren’t many teams worse than the Steelers when it comes to containing the run. The Bills are one of them. They’re a pathetic 30th against the run this year. Their most recent pathetic performance versus the run came when they played the Buccaneers a couple of weeks ago. Sean Tucker exploded for a huge performance in that game.

Could Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Walker do something similar? Perhaps, but there are a couple of things to keep in mind. The first is that the Bills will be better against the run in the future because Matt Milano will be healthier at some point. Milano has played recently, but hasn’t been healthy. Perhaps the mini-bye has helped him. The second thing is that the Bills won’t have to worry about the pass as much as they did versus Tampa Bay, given Pittsburgh’s poor quarterbacking situation.

It’s unclear if the Steelers will start Aaron Rodgers or Mason Rudolph. Rodgers is dealing with a non-throwing hand injury and may not be 100 percent, and it’s not like he’s effective anyway with all of his dinking and dunking. Rudolph, meanwhile, threw two interceptions last week against a horrible Chicago defense. Buffalo’s aerial defense will give him far greater problems.

RECAP: The Bills look like the correct play in this game. They’re the better team by far, and they’re coming off a loss. They’ve had plenty of time to think about their defeat from Thursday night, so we’re going to see a sharp Buffalo squad take the field. With only the Bengals on the horizon, it’s not like the Bills have anything to look ahead to, unlike the Lions last week. Allen is 15-9 against the spread off a loss, so we’re going to see him at his best in this game.

Meanwhile, Buffalo’s defense has nowhere to go but up, especially against the Steelers. Even if their run defense doesn’t make the inevitable big strides this week, they should be able to handle Pittsburgh’s offense rather well because of the quarterback issues.

Also, I think this line is way off. I made this spread Buffalo -6, yet it’s only -3.5, so we’re getting some nice value with the Bills.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m going to bump this up to three units. With DK Metcalf unlikely to play, Pittsburgh’s offense is going to be so anemic.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m switching my pick. The Bills are going to be missing both of their tackles, and Josh Allen is on the injury report with an elbow, though he has no injury designation. The question is if I’m actually going to bet the Steelers. I’m leaning yes. The sharps bet Pittsburgh at +3.5, so they should still be good at +3.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Dalton Kincaid is a game-time decision, but the Bills elevated a tight end, so that’s an indication that he could be out.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As suspected, Dalton Kincaid is out, in addition to the two Buffalo tackles. The sharps bet the Steelers at +3.5. The best line is +3 -105 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: Bills.

The Bills are the better team coming off a loss.

The Spread. Edge: Bills.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -6.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -4.5.

Computer Model: Bills -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 51% (100,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

Josh Allen is 15-9 ATS off a loss since his second season.

Sean McDermott is 10-5 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.

Mike Tomlin is 65-39 ATS as an underdog.

Aaron Rodgers is 138-103 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 33-26 ATS as an underdog.

Aaron Rodgers is 6-5 ATS as a home underdog.

Opening Line: Bills -3.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 33 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

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LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: As bad as the Raiders were last week against the Browns – their performance was horrible enough to get Chip Kelly fired – they still outscored what the Chargers were able to produce against the Jaguars the prior week. That’s the good news for the Raiders entering Week 13.

The bad news is that the Raiders still have severe offensive line issues. That was prevalent versus the Browns, who sacked Geno Smith 10 times. Cleveland, of course, has Myles Garrett, but it’s not like the Raiders are going to get a reprieve in this matchup. They know Khalil Mack quite well, and the Chargers are capable of producing tons of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Smith, once again, won’t have much time in the pocket.

The Chargers are much better against the pass than the run, so that would bode well for Ashton Jeanty if he had quality blocking in front of him. Jeanty, of course, doesn’t have much in terms of blocking. He also got hurt against the Browns, though reports indicate that he could be OK for this matchup.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: As mentioned earlier, the Chargers scored fewer points against the Jaguars than the Raiders did versus the Browns. This was a sad state of affairs in the Chargers’ humiliating 35-6 defeat.

Of course, it wasn’t that surprising that there was such a low output. The Chargers can’t block whatsoever. Their tackle play is horrendous, which did not bode well against Jacksonville’s talented edge rushers. The same will apply to Maxx Crosby, who should have a big performance in this game.

I wouldn’t expect the Chargers to get much out of their running game either, even if Omarion Hampton can return. The Raiders have handled the run better lately than they did earlier in the season, and it’s not like Hampton will have much blocking in front of him.

RECAP: It’s a shame that these two teams are battling each other this week because I’d like to fade both of them. The Raiders are a complete mess right now, particularly with their horrendous blocking unit. The Chargers have the same issue with the massive number of injuries.

Though I’d like to fade both teams, the Raiders look good to me here for a few reasons. One is that this line is too high. The Chargers have such severe problems scoring that it’ll be difficult for them to cover the 9.5 points. They may not even score more than 9.5 points! Two, they won’t have much of an edge at home. There will be a ton of Raider fans in the stands, so the Chargers will have to go to a silent count with horrendous blocking.

Three, the Raiders fired Chip Kelly. When coaches are fired, players tend to perform on a high level in the following game or two because they don’t want the finger pointed at them. It’s basically a wake-up call. And four, the Chargers have to battle the Eagles and Chiefs in the next two weeks, so they could look past the Raiders.

Despite all of these reasons to bet the Raiders, I can’t have a big play on them. The Chargers are coming off a bye week, so there’s definitely a non-zero chance that Jim Harbaugh could have found some sort of a solution to the blocking problems. The Chargers, despite their flaws, are also the better team.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Here’s another game in which Andy Iskoe and I had a long debate during our livestream:

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m switching my pick to the Chargers. Three Raiders showed up with illnesses on the same day. I’m not seeing anything about the flu in the Raiders locker room, but any time I see three or more players from the same team show up with illnesses, it’s a major red flag.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Again, I switched my pick. I have no strong opinion on this game. If I had to bet something, it would be the under.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Raiders are down yet another offensive lineman, so I like the pick change to the Chargers. The sharps have not touched this game. The best line is -9.5 -107 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Raiders.

The Chargers battle the Eagles and Chiefs the following two weeks.

The Spread. Edge: Raiders.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -8.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -8.5.

Computer Model: Chargers -8.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

Lots of money on the Chargers.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 75% (87,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

History: Chargers have won 3 of the last 4 meetings.

Raiders are 20-14 ATS as double-digit underdogs since 2008. ???

Jim Harbaugh is 13-6 ATS after a loss, excluding 2014.

Opening Line: Chargers -8.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

If you didn’t catch it, I posted live bets during Week 12, including George Kittle over receiving yards. I’ll be posting more live bets on X because it takes time to upload things to the site, so by the time I do, the line may be stale. Follow me @walterfootball for those live betting updates.

DENVER OFFENSE: I noted that the Dolphins had an excellent matchup against this Washington defense when previewing the stupid Spain game two weeks ago. That was De’Von Achane and his speed against Washington’s linebackers. The Redskin linebackers are the slowest in the league, so Achane was capable of going the distance whenever he touched the ball against them.

The Broncos have a similar edge in this contest. R.J. Harvey isn’t nearly as gifted of a runner as Achane, but he’s explosive and has game-breaking ability. He can certainly bounce outside and rush for a long distance against the Redskins. We’ll just have to see if Sean Payton allows Harvey to handle a full workload after giving Jaleel McLaughlin far too much work in the game prior to the bye.

Harvey’s explosive runs will allow Bo Nix to operate in favorable down-and-distance situations. Nix needs all the help he can get in the first three quarters when he tends to throw off his back foot and struggle as a result. The Redskins have no pass rush and can’t cover very well, but we saw Nix play poorly in a similar matchup against the Raiders a few weeks ago.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Despite the advantages the Broncos have offensively, Denver seems to have the strongest edge on this side of the ball. That wouldn’t be the case if Jayden Daniels were still healthy, but we’ll continue to see Marcus Mariota start for the Redskins.

Mariota can move around a bit and score enough to beat some of the worst teams in the NFL – he was in position to beat the Dolphins late in the stupid Spain game – but battling the best defenses in the NFL is problematic for him. He couldn’t keep up with the Lions prior to the Spain trip, and he’ll have an even tougher time against Denver’s stalwart defense. The Broncos generate the most pressure in the NFL, so Mariota will constantly be under siege. He’ll also be able to throw to just one side of the field with Patrick Surtain expected to return.

Mariota won’t be able to lean on a ground attack either. Jacory Croskey-Merritt has been a big disappointment – he’s not even getting most of the carries anymore – and the Broncos are eighth against the rush anyway.

RECAP: I talk about it all the time – you can bet backup quarterbacks on semi-functional teams profitably when they’re battling mediocre or worse defenses. However, backup quarterbacks tend to play very poorly against elite defenses. Mariota isn’t as bad as some of the dreadful quarterbacks we’ve seen this year, but he’s not good enough to overcome Denver’s defense.

If the Broncos were in a favorable spot, I’d have a huge play on them. They don’t happen to be a in a terrible spot because there’s no look-ahead, but they are coming off a huge victory against the Chiefs and they’ve had two weeks to hear about how great they are. This is not an ideal mindset for this game.

Still, I’ll be on the Broncos because the matchup is so favorable. Unfortunately, this won’t be a huge play for us.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Patrick Surtain II was limited in Wednesday’s practice, and yet this line dropped to +5.5. Someone with big money bet the Redskins.

SATURDAY NOTES: Patrick Surtain II is officially back in the lineup. The Broncos look great from a matchup perspective, but they could easily be flat in this game.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps appeared to be on Washington, but that turned out to be phantom line movement. The real sharp action came in on Denver at -5.5 and -6.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have been on both sides of this game, taking Denver at -5.5 and the Redskins at +6.5 and +6. The best line is Denver -5.5 -113 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Redskins.

The Broncos have had two weeks to hear about how great they are following their win over the Chiefs.

The Spread. Edge: Broncos.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -8.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Broncos -6.5.

Computer Model: Broncos -8.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Denver: 81% (62,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

Sean Payton is 10-6 ATS off a bye.

Opening Line: Broncos -6.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 42 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of New England, where tonight, the New York Vagiants take on the New England Patriots. Guys, I heard something real funny when my friend called the Giants the Vagiants. I laughed a lot at it because it sounded funny. You guys know the word Vagiants is supposed to sound like, and it’s real funny to compare it to the stupid Giants, who are the bad guys when you compare them to my Phildelphia Eagles. That word, of course, is vagrants. Vagrants, guys, and now all stupid Vagiants fans can feel stupid, mark my words!

Emmitt: Thanks, Mark. I think you real confusion between what your friend call the Giants the Vagiants. He not referring to vagrant, which probably a type of vegetable, but he referring to the word that name vaginus. That is a word for sexual part of the woman body. While man have pengina, woman have vaginus. I learnded this in homeschooled class that Mrs. Reilly teached to me last semolester.

Reilly: Emmitt, how did you get a spot in that class? I’ve been trying to register for it for the past five years, but Mother keeps saying that it’s impossible to register for it because the devil has taken over the class. Maybe New Daddy can put in a word for me? New Daddy, can I use you as a reference when I register next semester?

Jay Cutler: Can’t. I’ve been trying to get in myself.

Tollefson: Reilly, you’re just mentally not ready to take sexual education class at your mom’s home school. I’ve taken the class five times, and I’ve gotten an A+ all five times. No one knows more about sexual education than me because one of my female slaves is a former sexual education teacher, and she told me all about it while cooking and cleaning naked for me. She was one of my most prized slaves until she began talking about the outside world, and what it would be like to see it one day. Now, she’s swimming at the bottom of the lake.

Reilly: That’s nice that she gets to go swimming. I wish I could go swimming in the local pool, but Mother told me that swimming is the devil because it’s just a trap that would drown me. The best I can do is the kiddie pool on my deck, as long as we have a lifeguard present. Mother is usually the lifeguard, but not when she’s busy at Bingo. Clarissa, will you be my lifeguard?

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Lifeguard. I have breaking news tonight. Eli Manning will throw a pass that will stick to his receiver’s helmet. Back to you, Lifeguard.

Reilly: HEY, MY NAME IS NOT LIFEGUARD! WE NEED A LIFEGUARD! AND WHAT YOU SAID COULD NEVER POSSIBLY HAPPEN EVER IN ANY GAME, YOU FOOL!

Mina Kimes: Kevin, I need to jump in here and offer my analysis. You just said that Clarissa Thompkins is a fool, but I beg to differ. If there is a fool here, it’s you because you do not recognize my genius and football acumen. Allow me to demonstrate. While it’s unlikely that any player will ever make a helmet catch, let’s break down the players most likely to do so. Let’s begin with my No. 1 candidate, Geno Smith. I know Geno Smith is a quarterback, and not just any quarterback, THE best quarterback to beat quarters coverage by throwing over the top of it, but Smith’s brilliance is exactly why he would be the most likely candidate to ever make a helmet catch. And the other person on my list is also Geno Smith because he’s the top-one quarterback in the NFL, so he needs to be listed twice. If you don’t agree, then you are racist against Asian female NFL analysts.

Reilly: Milo, I wasn’t really paying attention to what you have to say, but will you be my lifeguard? Because girls make for being great lifeguards.

Sarah Spain: EX-CA-USE ME! DID YOU JUST SAY THAT GIRLS MAKE FOR BEING GOOD LIFEGUARDS!?!? THAT’S SO SEXIST! GIRLS ARE MORE THAN CAPABLE OF BEING GREAT AT ANYTHING AND NOT JUST GOOD, SO IF YOU’RE IMPLYING THAT MALE LIFEGUARDS ARE GREAT, AND FEMALE LIFEGUARDS ARE JUST GOOD, I AM GOING STRAIGHT TO HR AND STRAIGHTENING THIS OUT!

Reilly: What is HR? Home run? This is football, silly woman. Speaking of silly women, they’ve added another one to this booth.

Josina Anderson: DID ANYONE SEE HOW GREAT SHEDEUR SANDERS WAS THIS WEEK!?!??!? HE THREW AN PASS INTERSECTION BUT THAT’S BECAUSE HE DID NOT GET A STARTING REP IN PRACTICE THIS WEEK EVEN THOUGH THE OTHER GUY HAD A CONCUSSIONED!!! SHEDEUR SANDERS IS A GOD AMONGST MEN, AND HE’S SO GREAT THAT HE’S ALSO A GOD AMONGST GODS, SO IMAGINE WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF HE GOT A STARTING REP IN PRACTICE!!!

Reilly: Who are you even talking about? Is this Shedeur guy a lifeguard? I don’t want a boy lifeguard, I want a girl lifeguard!

Charles Davis: Kevin, it sounds like you’re talking about water safety measures, Kevin. Let’s talk about some other water safety measures, Kevin. How about life jackets, Kevin? Don’t forget about avoiding currents, Kevin. Let’s stay in designated areas, Kevin. Don’t forget to obey signs, Kevin. Care to share about learning how to swim, Kevin? Also, there’s treading water, Kevin. It’s always nice to have supervision, Kevin. But Kevin, feel free to ignore all of these so you can just drown, Kevin.

Reilly: Don’t you think that’s why I’m obsessed with having a lifeguard!? I don’t want to drown in my kiddie pool! We’ll be back right after this!

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Patriots were enjoying a great, relatively injury-free season, but disaster struck last week. Both left tackle Will Campbell and left guard Jared Wilson suffered injuries and will be out indefinitely. Right tackle Morgan Moses also got banged up, but he managed to stay in the game.

This is far from ideal, but not completely devastating. Moses should be fine for this game, while Wilson isn’t a particularly good player. Campbell is, however, and his absence will greatly benefit the Giants’ edge rush. Drake Maye will see more pressure than usual, so it’s hard to expect the Patriots to be as efficient in this game as they’ve been for most of the year.

New England should at least be able to run the ball, even without Campbell. The Giants are the worst team in the NFL when it comes to stopping the rush, and we know how TreVeyon Henderson can be when he gets into the open field.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: It was a mild surprise that Jaxson Dart was unavailable for last week’s game. Dart had practiced on a limited basis and already missed a game with a concussion. The Giants smartly held him out versus the Lions, so there’s a better chance Dart will be 100 percent for this contest. Quarterbacks tend to struggle coming off a concussion, but because New York gave Dart extra time to heal, he should be fully ready for this contest.

Dart doesn’t have the easiest matchup in this game, as the Patriots are ranked fifth in defensive EPA. However, they can be beaten by scrambling quarterbacks, and that’s where Dart specializes. Dart is lethal with his legs, and even the best defenses haven’t been able to solve him yet.

One issue for Dart is that he lost his favorite weapon, Cam Skattebo. The Patriots are solid against the run and shouldn’t have an issue containing Tyrone Tracy and Devin Singletary.

RECAP: Given the issues on the Patriots offensive line, this line is a bit too high. New England’s decline in pass protection isn’t a huge problem, but the matchup in the trenches certainly favors the Giants, especially when considering that New York’s strength is its pass rush.

Speaking of the Giants defense, New York fired its coordinator, Shane Bowen. I like this dynamic for the Giants because teams that tend to fire coaches tend to be on high alert because the players don’t want fingers pointed at them. I expect a much better performance from New York’s defense than we’ve seen in recent weeks.

Dart, meanwhile, will keep the Giants in the game. Given that most of Dart’s games have been close, I expect the Giants to cover the spread. I like them a good deal at +7.5.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We haven’t seen a practice report on Jaxson Dart yet, so I’m eager to see if he’ll be full in practice leading up to this game. If he’s limited, I’ll have to re-think my potential bet on the Giants.

SATURDAY NOTES: No Dexter Lawrence or Kayvon Thibodeaux yet in practice for the Giants over the past two days, so New York may not be able to fully take advantage of New England’s offensive line injuries. Meanwhile, Harold Landry has yet to practice. His absence would be a big blow to New England’s defense.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Kayvon Thibodeaux is out, but Dexter Lawrence is not on the final injury report. Harold Landry is going to be a game-time decision.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: I like Theo Johnson to go over his receiving yards. The Patriots have the 10th-worst defense against tight ends, and Jaxson Dart loves throwing to Johnson. We’re betting this at DraftKings (over 33.5 -110) because of a 30-percent profit boost, up to $25. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FanDuel has a 30-percent profit boost for same-game parlays. We’re going to use Johnson over 32.5 receiving yards, TreVeyon Henderson over 63.5 rushing yards, and Jaxson Dart over 27.5 rushing yards. This $25 parlay pays $171.54. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I shouldn’t have waited to bet the Giants. The sharps have come in on New York, betting this line down to +7. The best line is +7 +100 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -7.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Patriots -7.5.

Computer Model: Patriots -9.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on New England: 55% (220,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Patriots are 32-18 ATS on the road vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Opening Line: Patriots -7.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 33 degrees. Light wind.