2025 NFL Picks – Week 13: Broncos at Redskins

The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

If you didn’t catch it, I posted live bets during Week 12, including George Kittle over receiving yards. I’ll be posting more live bets on X because it takes time to upload things to the site, so by the time I do, the line may be stale. Follow me @walterfootball for those live betting updates.

DENVER OFFENSE: I noted that the Dolphins had an excellent matchup against this Washington defense when previewing the stupid Spain game two weeks ago. That was De’Von Achane and his speed against Washington’s linebackers. The Redskin linebackers are the slowest in the league, so Achane was capable of going the distance whenever he touched the ball against them.

The Broncos have a similar edge in this contest. R.J. Harvey isn’t nearly as gifted of a runner as Achane, but he’s explosive and has game-breaking ability. He can certainly bounce outside and rush for a long distance against the Redskins. We’ll just have to see if Sean Payton allows Harvey to handle a full workload after giving Jaleel McLaughlin far too much work in the game prior to the bye.

Harvey’s explosive runs will allow Bo Nix to operate in favorable down-and-distance situations. Nix needs all the help he can get in the first three quarters when he tends to throw off his back foot and struggle as a result. The Redskins have no pass rush and can’t cover very well, but we saw Nix play poorly in a similar matchup against the Raiders a few weeks ago.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Despite the advantages the Broncos have offensively, Denver seems to have the strongest edge on this side of the ball. That wouldn’t be the case if Jayden Daniels were still healthy, but we’ll continue to see Marcus Mariota start for the Redskins.

Mariota can move around a bit and score enough to beat some of the worst teams in the NFL – he was in position to beat the Dolphins late in the stupid Spain game – but battling the best defenses in the NFL is problematic for him. He couldn’t keep up with the Lions prior to the Spain trip, and he’ll have an even tougher time against Denver’s stalwart defense. The Broncos generate the most pressure in the NFL, so Mariota will constantly be under siege. He’ll also be able to throw to just one side of the field with Patrick Surtain expected to return.

Mariota won’t be able to lean on a ground attack either. Jacory Croskey-Merritt has been a big disappointment – he’s not even getting most of the carries anymore – and the Broncos are eighth against the rush anyway.

RECAP: I talk about it all the time – you can bet backup quarterbacks on semi-functional teams profitably when they’re battling mediocre or worse defenses. However, backup quarterbacks tend to play very poorly against elite defenses. Mariota isn’t as bad as some of the dreadful quarterbacks we’ve seen this year, but he’s not good enough to overcome Denver’s defense.

If the Broncos were in a favorable spot, I’d have a huge play on them. They don’t happen to be a in a terrible spot because there’s no look-ahead, but they are coming off a huge victory against the Chiefs and they’ve had two weeks to hear about how great they are. This is not an ideal mindset for this game.

Still, I’ll be on the Broncos because the matchup is so favorable. Unfortunately, this won’t be a huge play for us.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Patrick Surtain II was limited in Wednesday’s practice, and yet this line dropped to +5.5. Someone with big money bet the Redskins.

SATURDAY NOTES: Patrick Surtain II is officially back in the lineup. The Broncos look great from a matchup perspective, but they could easily be flat in this game.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps appeared to be on Washington, but that turned out to be phantom line movement. The real sharp action came in on Denver at -5.5 and -6.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have been on both sides of this game, taking Denver at -5.5 and the Redskins at +6.5 and +6. The best line is Denver -5.5 -113 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Redskins.

The Broncos have had two weeks to hear about how great they are following their win over the Chiefs.

The Spread. Edge: Broncos.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -8.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Broncos -6.5.

Computer Model: Broncos -8.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Denver: 81% (62,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

Sean Payton is 10-6 ATS off a bye.

Opening Line: Broncos -6.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 42 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.