2025 NFL Picks – Week 13: Rams at Panthers

The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

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LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The 49ers had a great mismatch Monday night with the Panthers missing their top two linebackers. Carolina also lost its best cornerback, Jaycee Horn, in the first half. You have to believe that Sean McVay noticed this in his preparation for this opponent.

Like Kyle Shanahan, McVay is an offensive guru, and he’ll be prepared to exploit Carolina’s weaknesses. Puka Nacua operates over the middle of the field, and the Panthers won’t have the personnel to stop him. Davante Adams, meanwhile, has been a touchdown machine, and he’ll have an easy time against Carolina’s secondary if Horn is sidelined, which is expected to be the case on a short week.

The Panthers aren’t great against the run either, as we’ve seen in some recent results. Kyren Williams will handle the workload in the second half when the Rams could be up by multiple touchdowns, and he’ll be able to close out this game.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Bryce Young appeared to fly a bit too close to the sun in his 450-yard effort against the Falcons. What the sports media to failed to note when mentioning this performance was that the Falcons were jetlagged off their 11-hour flight from Germany, so they were in no position to stop anyone. Young predictably came crashing back down to Earth versus the 49ers. He scored just nine points and threw two interceptions.

The thing is, Young didn’t even have a bad matchup on Monday night. He was shellshocked by a defense that generates no pressure on the quarterback. San Francisco’s defense is also down lots of talented personnel in the back seven. I was expecting more out of Young, and he produced only nine points, which was a pathetic showing.

If Young couldn’t get to double-digits against San Francisco’s skeleton-crew defense, or seven points against the Saints, what’s going to happen against the Rams’ No. 1 defense? The Rams put tons of pressure on the quarterback, unlike the 49ers, so Young will constantly be under siege and will make more mistakes as a result. Young won’t be able to lean on Rico Dowdle either because the Rams’ No. 2 ground defense will clamp down on him and force Young into unfavorable situations.

RECAP: The first thing I did when handicapping this game was look up the Rams’ impending opponent because everything else favors them in this game. They’re the far better team on both sides of the ball. They also have the more favorable scheduling spot because the Panthers are playing on one fewer day of rest as a result of their Monday night affair versus San Francisco. And sure, the Rams have to travel to play a 1 p.m. game on the East Coast, but this is a situation in which McVay has excelled over the years. McVay is 11-6 against the spread in 1 p.m. East Coast games, and that includes the BS loss to the Eagles earlier this season, so he should be 12-5.

The Rams, luckily, don’t have a look-ahead opponent because they’ll be taking on the 3-8 Cardinals next week. So, they should be fully focused on the Panthers, who have built up somewhat of a reputation at 6-6. And I say “luckily” because I love the Rams.

Both the matchup and the spot favor the Rams. We’ve discussed the matchups, but what about the spot? Sure, the Rams are coming off a win on national TV, but they tend to be focused in these early East Coast games. More prominently, the Panthers just played on Monday night, and bad teams really tend to struggle following Monday night affairs because they need more time to prepare for their next opponent than good teams. Given that, it should come as no surprise that non-winning teams off Monday night losses are 86-111 against the spread since 2010, which is just a 43.7-percent cover rate.

The Rams will be one of our highest plays of the week. Everything favors them here, so hopefully we’re not cursed with another bulls**t back-door cover.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Rams are still a top play for me. One thing I didn’t mention is that not only is Carolina playing on a short week, it’s also traveling across the country. This will make things very difficult for them against a far superior team.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Rams have a couple of players listed as questionable heading into this game – Poona Ford, Kamren Kinchens – but they otherwise look great as a big bet this week.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Believe it or not, the sharps bet the Panthers at +10.5 on Sunday morning. I don’t know why, but -10 is available across the board. The best line is -10 -110 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -10.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -9.5.

Computer Model: Rams -11.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

Slight lean on the Rams.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 68% (84,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

Opening Line: Rams -9.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 49 degrees. Light wind.