2025 NFL Picks – Week 13: Texans at Colts

The Matchup. Edge: Colts.

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INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts have maintained one of the top offenses in the NFL this season, while the Texans have an elite defense. This is a fascinating matchup to see which side will prevail.

Daniel Jones has been the pilot of the Colts offense, but Jonathan Taylor has been the engine. Taylor has enjoyed an Offensive Player of the Year-type season, but he was finally limited last week by the Chiefs. The result was a 20-point output in which the Colts couldn’t produce anything in the fourth quarter and overtime. The Texans are fifth against the run, so Taylor could have a similar performance this week. If so, Jones will have to overcome it and lead his team to victory, which he couldn’t do against the Chiefs.

It would be one thing if Jones had an easy matchup, but that’s hardly the case in this game. The Texans are even better against the pass compared to the run, so Jones has his work cut out for him. He’ll face tons of pressure from a front that sacked Josh Allen eight times, and his receivers will have to somehow get open against some elite defensive backs.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: While the matchup between the Colts offense and the Texans defense figures to be close, the matchup on the other side of the ball has a rather large disparity. The Colts, ranked 13th in defense, get to go against a Houston scoring unit that can’t pass protect whatsoever.

The Colts aren’t as great up front since losing DeForest Buckner, but they can still generate pressure on the quarterback. They were able to harass Patrick Mahomes last week, and they’ll do the same to C.J. Stroud, who is stationed behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Stroud and his receivers will also have to battle two fantastic outside cornerbacks, with Charvarius Ward now healthy enough to start across from Sauce Gardner.

Indianapolis is weaker to the run than the pass because of Buckner’s absence. However, it remains to be seen if the Texans can take advantage of this. They don’t have a great rushing attack, and Woody Marks was solid, but not great against Buffalo’s poor rush defense last Thursday.

RECAP: The Texans were able to win a few games, and now everyone wants to bet on them. The Colts, meanwhile, lost to the Chiefs, and no one is giving them much of a chance. As of Tuesday afternoon, an obscene 75 percent of the betting action is on Houston +4.5.

I’m going to be on the other side. As mentioned, Colts offense versus Houston defense is fairly even, but Colts defense versus Houston offense is a big mismatch in the home team’s favor. Also, there’s no guarantee that Stroud will play well in his first game back from injury. He could be rusty, which only strengthens the Indianapolis argument.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: C.J. Stroud practiced fully on Wednesday, so he looks like he’s on track to return. I still would side with Indianapolis though, as people are jumping on the Houston bandwagon after their national TV win.

SATURDAY NOTES: I didn’t have much interest in this game earlier in the week, but some things fundamentally changed about this matchup, which would be Daniel Jones’ health. Jones will be playing with a fractured fibula, which sounds like a disaster waiting to happen, especially against Houston’s defense. We saw Carson Wentz and Baker Mayfield play through injuries, only for it to end in disaster, and we could see the same thing occur for the Colts. I’m going to bet three units on the Texans.

LOCKED IN & PLAYER PROP: The sharps have moved this line to +3 mostly. You can still get +3.5 -110 at DraftKings, so we’re locking that in now. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link. We’re going to bet Daniel Jones under 7.5 rushing yards -114 on FanDuel. Is Jones really going to run at all with a fractured fibula? I have my doubts. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m glad we locked in this pick on Saturday night. The sharps are on the Texans; they drove this line down to +3. You can’t find a +3.5 anywhere except for Bookmker, which lists this line at +3.5 -119. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Colts -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Colts -4.5.

Computer Model: Colts -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.

Some money on the Texans.

Percentage of money on Houston: 65% (96,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

History: Colts have won 32 of the 45 meetings, excluding a 2022 tie.

Opening Line: Colts -3.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Dome.