2025 NFL Picks – Week 13: Packers at Lions

The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

Week 12 Analysis: Another sh**ty Sunday with variance not going our way. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Lions, 5 units (loss): I handicapped three Sunday games poorly, and this was one of them. I didn’t think the Lions would look ahead to Thanksgiving because they were coming off a loss, but I think once it was announced that Jaxson Dart wouldn’t play, they didn’t take the Giants seriously.

Patriots, 5 units (loss): Two back-door covers went against us on Sunday, and this was the first. The Bengals had scored just six offensive points the entire game until their back-door touchdown at the very end. Had the Patriots just scored a touchdown on one of the 10 f**king plays they had from the 1-yard line on two separate drives, the Bengals wouldn’t have been in a position to cover. Seriously, how can you not score a touchdown on one of 10 plays from the 1-yard line? Run a f**king QB sneak!

Seahawks, 3 units (loss): The Seahawks were up by a million points throughout this entire game, but the Titans had a back-door cover in the final minute. This wouldn’t have been possible if they hadn’t scored on a punt return touchdown earlier. I would love for once to get a special-teams touchdown our way. I’m being serious when I say that I think every single special teams touchdown has gone against us this year, including that ridiculous Jordan Davis blocked field goal return back in September. That was the start of this horrible variance that has been plaguing us all year.

Vikings, 2 units (loss): I’m including this as the second game I handicapped poorly. Betting on J.J. McCarthy was a huge mistake. That said, we had more special-teams nonsense go against us when the Vikings muffed a punt return down 10-6 in the third quarter to set up a Green Bay touchdown. I still think we would have lost, but that muffed punt didn’t help matters.

Saints, 2 units (loss): The third game I handicapped poorly on Sunday. At least I dropped the unit count from three to two on Sunday morning. I should have moved it to zero once I realized I couldn’t justify putting the Saints on any of my contest cards.

49ers, 4 units (win): Hey, we didn’t get back doored this time. Hurray!

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions had an incredible matchup against the Giants last week, so it’s disappointing that they didn’t cover the spread as a result of being unfocused for this game. Jahmyr Gibbs still rushed for 200-plus yards, and yet the Lions had to go to overtime to defeat the sorry Giants.

The Packers are much better against the run than the Giants. They aren’t amazing at it – they’re ranked 12th in that regard – but they’ll be able to do a much better job of limiting Gibbs than New York. Gibbs still figures to rush for big gains, but he won’t completely dominate this week.

Jared Goff needs Gibbs to have a monster game so he can avoid Micah Parsons. All quarterbacks are worse when pressured, but Goff takes it to another level. He becomes a mere shell of himself when the other team can generate tons of heat. We saw that from him in the Week 1 matchup against these same Packers.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: It’s frustrating how inconsistent “No Cookie” Jordan Love can be. Love completed 20 consecutive passes against the Steelers in complete domination, and yet he barely looks like a functional quarterback at times.

Love, however, tends to dominate the Lions. He did so a couple of Thanksgivings ago with some deep throws to Christian Watson. Given how poorly the Lions defended Jameis Winston’s throws to Wan’Dale Robinson and Isaiah Hodgins, it’s reasonable to expect another strong outing from Love and his receivers.

Love will also be able to lean on his running back, whether it’s Josh Jacobs or Emanuel Wilson. The Lions were much stronger against the run earlier in the season, but they’ve gotten worse against it. Since the beginning of October, the Lions are just 20th versus the rush, so either Jacobs or Wilson will be able to pick up some chunks on the ground.

RECAP: The Lions opened as three-point favorites, but the sharps bet the Packers down to +2.5 early on Monday. That’s unfortunate because I had interest in the Packers at +3 as well. I still like them at +2.5, but not as much.

The Packers have had the Lions’ number when they’ve had a mostly healthy team. Detroit swept the series last year, but Love was completely banged up in the first meeting. The second matchup saw the Lions win, but only by three despite being the superior team playing at home. Otherwise, the Packers have won these contests.

Given that the Lions have issues defending the pass, as a result of injuries to their secondary, I think it’s reasonable to expect the Packers to generate enough offense to win this game. Meanwhile, Green Bay’s pressure should once again befuddle Goff.

Our Week 13 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Something I forgot to mention is that teams coming off overtime games tend to perform poorly on Thursdays. They are 7-25 against the spread in that scenario. However, the Giants-Lions overtime didn’t really feel like an overtime because the Lions scored right away, and then the Giants had a quick drive.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: I like Christian Watson over 55.5 receiving yards -117 (at BetRivers). Detroit has struggled against the pass recently, and Watson has had some great games against them in the past. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

I’m parlaying Watson’s over 59.5 receiving yards, Jahmy Gibbs over 5.5 receptions, and David Montgomery under 36.5 rushing yards at DraftKings, which has a 30-percent parlay boost. This $25 parlay pays $187. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharp action has been mixed on this game. Pro money has come in on both the Packers +3 and Lions -2.5. I still like Green Bay, but it has to be at +3. The best line is +3 -105 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -3.

Computer Model: Lions -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Packers.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 55% (235,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.