2025 NFL Picks – Week 13: Chiefs at Cowboys

The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs looked like they were once again going to have a meltdown versus the Colts. They trailed 20-9 in the fourth quarter as a result of numerous mistakes. Patrick Mahomes was also unwilling to scramble for some reason. The Chiefs, however, rallied and won in overtime as a result of some Mahomes scrambles. Kansas City also stopped making blunders, which was obviously a big help.

The Chiefs will have an easier matchup on this side of the ball this week. The Cowboys have improved against the run with Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson now on the roster, but they still figure to struggle against the pass. We just saw Jalen Hurts torch their secondary with a struggling A.J. Brown, so Mahomes should do well with throws to Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce. It would help if Mahomes continued to scramble as well.

Mahomes won’t be able to lean on the run like he did in the fourth quarter. Kareem Hunt was solid at the end of the Colts game, but we just saw the Cowboys limit Saquon Barkley to 22 rushing yards. Even Isiah Pacheco’s potential return won’t help very much.

DALLAS OFFENSE: While the Chiefs should have their way with the Dallas defense, stopping the Cowboys offense will be a different story. Dak Prescott has been on fire since the bye, which includes an incredible comeback against the Eagles this past Sunday.

Steve Spagnuolo is a brilliant defensive coordinator who specializes in erasing the opposing No. 1 receiver. But what’s he going to do about the Dallas situation, given that the Cowboys have two No. 1 receivers? George Pickens has been incredible lately, and we know how great CeeDee Lamb is.

The one positive thing you can say about Kansas City’s matchup on this side of the ball is that the Chiefs should be able to contain Javonte Williams. Kansas City just clamped down on Jonathan Taylor, so Prescott won’t be able to lean on Williams like he has in some other matchups.

RECAP: This would be an easy selection if the Chiefs were taking on the Cowboys prior to the trade deadline. However, Williams and Wilson have made the Cowboys’ horrendous defense markedly better. Dallas’ stop unit isn’t great or anything, but it can be close to being in the middle of the pack, which, when combined with the offense, makes the Cowboys a formidable team.

I want to say that the Chiefs will come through in the clutch once again, especially on a national stage. However, this line means that they could do so and not cover the spread. Three is the most likely result of any NFL game, and this line is exactly Kansas City -3 after the sharps bet Dallas at +3.5. The Chiefs prevailing by three is the most likely outcome.

I’m still going to be on the Chiefs because I consider them to be the better team, and I think it’s more likely that they win by more than three rather than they win by fewer than four or lose outright, but it’s pretty close. I don’t see myself betting this game, barring some unexpected surprises on the injury report.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This is still a lean on the Chiefs, with nothing really changing in the past 48 hours. It’s worth noting that the sharps bet the Cowboys at +3.5, but not at +3.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I didn’t like any of the props in this game. And the sharps can’t come to a consensus here. The pros have bet the Cowboys at +3.5 and the Chiefs at -3. The best line is Chiefs -3 -125 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Chiefs.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -3.5.

Computer Model: Cowboys -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

Slight lean on the Cowboys.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 63% (263,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

Patrick Mahomes is 106-30 SU, 71-63 ATS (57-49 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Cowboys are 25-17 ATS after playing the Eagles since 2000.

Dak Prescott is 41-33 ATS at home.

Opening Line: Chiefs -3.5.

Opening Total: 51.

Weather: Dome.