2025 NFL Picks – Week 13: Bears at Eagles

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s something from Twitter:

I’m offended that this guy thinks I’m charging for the site. If I’m charging for the site, I must be doing a poor job because everyone reading this is doing so for free.

This guy might be even dumber:

Imagine not being able to use a Web site on a phone. This site works fine for me on the phone. Sure, there are a lot of ads, but we have an ad-free version, and I don’t think the ads are that bad anyway, but maybe I’m biased.

Here is the stupidity award winner of the week:

This Jeb guy is a complete imbecile for thinking that men can become women, and vice versa, even though it has never happened in the history of humanity. What a moron!

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: I’ve discussed how much different the Eagles are without Lane Johnson ad nauseum. Their offensive efficiency plummets without Johnson, no matter if the quarterback is Jalen Hurts, Nick Foles, or Carson Wentz. That didn’t seem to be the case early last week against Dallas when the Eagles posted 21 points in the opening half, but Johnson was sorely missed in the second half when the Eagles collapsed.

Despite what I just said, I don’t think the Eagles will necessarily miss Johnson in this game. That’s because the Bears have the worst pressure rate in the NFL. No team gets to the quarterback less often than Chicago, so Hurts will have all the time he needs to locate the emerging A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith going against a beat-up secondary with two injured cornerbacks.

Speaking of injured players, the Bears are also missing their top two linebackers. This has made them far worse against the run. Perhaps we’ll see Saquon Barkley have a rare great performance. Barkley trampled over the Giants’ inept run defense several weeks ago, so he could have similar success against the Bears.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Caleb Williams has made strides this year with an enhanced offensive line and a superior coaching staff, but he still makes bone-headed plays like the one he was guilty of against the Steelers where he held the ball for an eternity in his own end zone, only to lose a fumble that was recovered for a touchdown. Williams wasn’t even battling a tough defense, and he made that mistake.

Thinking about Williams not battling a tough defense made me think – when has Williams battled top defenses this year, and how has he done against them? The Eagles, of course, sport one of the best defenses in the NFL, so we need to see how Williams has fared against top competition. The answer is that he hasn’t really had the opportunity outside of a couple of instances. The only defenses currently ranked in the top 10 that Williams has faced this season are the Ravens and Lions. In those games, Williams scored an average of 18.5 points per game. His stats weren’t horrible, but his performance against Detroit was a byproduct of garbage time.

Williams sometimes gets into a habit of holding on to the ball too long, which will cost him dearly in this game. Williams won’t be able to rely on the running game because the Eagles are stout versus the rush, so he could have his worst performance of the season against Philadelphia’s elite defense.

RECAP: The Eagles have the matchup and spot edges in this game. We’ve discussed the matchups already. The Bears have an injury-ravaged defense that can’t generate any pressure on opposing quarterbacks, so Philadelphia’s offense figures to thrive, even without Lane Johnson. Meanwhile, Williams hasn’t yet succeeded against a top-10 defense, so Philadelphia’s stop unit figures to feast in this matchup. The spot, meanwhile, also goes to the Eagles because they’re the better team coming off a loss. They’ve been hearing about it all week because Dallas is such a bitter rival, so this is a perfect get-right game for them.

I also think we’re getting quality line value with the Eagles. I made this spread -8.5. You might be wondering why I have the line so high with both teams having the same record, and it’s because the Bears’ 8-3 record is a farce. They have a negative point differential, so they are bound to regress to the mean.

The Eagles are my favorite side of all the Thursday and Friday games. This play would have a much higher unit count if Johnson were available, but the Eagles are still far superior compared to Chicago without him.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still like the Eagles, but if you bet them, and they get out to a big lead, you should consider hedging with the Bears at halftime, given how many leads Philadelphia has blown this season.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY : DraftKings has a 12-1 pm flash sale on an anytime touchdown scorer. We can take Saquon Barkley from -125 to +104, up to $30.

The 1-2 pm flash sale concerns the receiving props. We can get Dallas Goedert over 36.5 receiving yards +115, up to $30.

DraftKings is offering a 30-percent parlay boost. We’re going to use Saquan Barkley over 79.5 rushing yards, Dallas Goedert over 36.5 receiving yards, and Caleb Williams over 22.5 rushing yards. This $25 parlay pays $187. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Bears are down their top three linebackers, so the Eagles look great. The sharps haven’t touched this game, but I’m going to bet the Eagles for three units. The best line is -7 -110 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: Eagles.

The Eagles are the better team coming off a loss.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -8.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -7.

Computer Model: Eagles -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 54% (27,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.