2025 NFL Picks – Week 13: Raiders at Chargers

The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is the 11th part of my Walt Goes to Vegas series, where I discuss a rare instance where a drink server treated me well.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: As bad as the Raiders were last week against the Browns – their performance was horrible enough to get Chip Kelly fired – they still outscored what the Chargers were able to produce against the Jaguars the prior week. That’s the good news for the Raiders entering Week 13.

The bad news is that the Raiders still have severe offensive line issues. That was prevalent versus the Browns, who sacked Geno Smith 10 times. Cleveland, of course, has Myles Garrett, but it’s not like the Raiders are going to get a reprieve in this matchup. They know Khalil Mack quite well, and the Chargers are capable of producing tons of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Smith, once again, won’t have much time in the pocket.

The Chargers are much better against the pass than the run, so that would bode well for Ashton Jeanty if he had quality blocking in front of him. Jeanty, of course, doesn’t have much in terms of blocking. He also got hurt against the Browns, though reports indicate that he could be OK for this matchup.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: As mentioned earlier, the Chargers scored fewer points against the Jaguars than the Raiders did versus the Browns. This was a sad state of affairs in the Chargers’ humiliating 35-6 defeat.

Of course, it wasn’t that surprising that there was such a low output. The Chargers can’t block whatsoever. Their tackle play is horrendous, which did not bode well against Jacksonville’s talented edge rushers. The same will apply to Maxx Crosby, who should have a big performance in this game.

I wouldn’t expect the Chargers to get much out of their running game either, even if Omarion Hampton can return. The Raiders have handled the run better lately than they did earlier in the season, and it’s not like Hampton will have much blocking in front of him.

RECAP: It’s a shame that these two teams are battling each other this week because I’d like to fade both of them. The Raiders are a complete mess right now, particularly with their horrendous blocking unit. The Chargers have the same issue with the massive number of injuries.

Though I’d like to fade both teams, the Raiders look good to me here for a few reasons. One is that this line is too high. The Chargers have such severe problems scoring that it’ll be difficult for them to cover the 9.5 points. They may not even score more than 9.5 points! Two, they won’t have much of an edge at home. There will be a ton of Raider fans in the stands, so the Chargers will have to go to a silent count with horrendous blocking.

Three, the Raiders fired Chip Kelly. When coaches are fired, players tend to perform on a high level in the following game or two because they don’t want the finger pointed at them. It’s basically a wake-up call. And four, the Chargers have to battle the Eagles and Chiefs in the next two weeks, so they could look past the Raiders.

Despite all of these reasons to bet the Raiders, I can’t have a big play on them. The Chargers are coming off a bye week, so there’s definitely a non-zero chance that Jim Harbaugh could have found some sort of a solution to the blocking problems. The Chargers, despite their flaws, are also the better team.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Here’s another game in which Andy Iskoe and I had a long debate during our livestream:

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m switching my pick to the Chargers. Three Raiders showed up with illnesses on the same day. I’m not seeing anything about the flu in the Raiders locker room, but any time I see three or more players from the same team show up with illnesses, it’s a major red flag.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Again, I switched my pick. I have no strong opinion on this game. If I had to bet something, it would be the under.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Raiders are down yet another offensive lineman, so I like the pick change to the Chargers. The sharps have not touched this game. The best line is -9.5 -107 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Raiders.

The Chargers battle the Eagles and Chiefs the following two weeks.

The Spread. Edge: Raiders.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -8.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -8.5.

Computer Model: Chargers -8.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

Lots of money on the Chargers.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 75% (87,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

History: Chargers have won 3 of the last 4 meetings.

Raiders are 20-14 ATS as double-digit underdogs since 2008. ???

Jim Harbaugh is 13-6 ATS after a loss, excluding 2014.

Opening Line: Chargers -8.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Dome.