2025 NFL Picks – Week 13: Vikings at Seahawks

The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

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MINNESOTA OFFENSE: J.J. McCarthy hasn’t been benched, but he won’t be playing this week. He allegedly has a concussion, so Max Brosmer will start. Apparently, the word for “benching” in the Somali-ridden Minneapolis-Twin Cities area is “concussion.”

McCarthy needed to be benched/concussed because he was the worst quarterback in the NFL. Even Shedeur Sanders showed better qualities. Brosmer can only be better, but it’s unclear how much better. Brosmer is an undrafted free agent rookie from New Hampshire. He’s a smart quarterback who has polished footwork and mechanics, but he has no arm strength or athletic ability. Perhaps he’ll be a viable backup in the NFL one day, but he’s rather limited in what he can do.

Given that Brosmer won’t threaten downfield, the Seahawks will eat him alive. Seattle has a monstrous defense capable of putting tons of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The Seahawks are also stout against the run, and they’ll be able to play closer to the line of scrimmage because of Brosmer’s limitations.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: I bet Kevin O’Connell wishes he still had Sam Darnold on the roster. O’Connell somehow picked McCarthy over Darnold, and I bet that Darnold remembers that. Darnold knows his former team, having gone against them in practice every day last year. He knows Brian Flores’ scheme, so that should bode well for him in this game.

Darnold has been exceptional when he doesn’t face much pressure. However, the pressure has to come when he’s not blitzed. Darnold is excellent against the blitz this year, completing 65 percent of his passes and maintaining a 10.3 YPA. The Vikings blitz more than any other team in the NFL, so Darnold will know what to do when he sees extra rushers.

The Seahawks should be able to have some quality runs as well. Kenneth Walker has been seeing more of a workload, and he should do well against a Minnesota defense that is 16th against the rush.

RECAP: Darnold isn’t the only person who knows that O’Connell picked McCarthy over him. His teammates know that as well, and they will have their leader’s back. Revenge narratives are often overblown, but this is a pure revenge situation. Darnold has every right to be upset with how his former team discarded him, and he’ll get the support from his teammates.

Given the revenge narrative, this is the perfect marriage between spot and matchup. The Seahawks obviously have the edge in the matchup because of the Vikings’ horrible quarterbacking situation, and they’ll have the motivation to get revenge for Darnold. Without a key opponent on the horizon – the Seahawks battle the Falcons next week – there’s every reason to believe that Seattle will be focused.

This is a big play on the Seahawks. They disappointed us last week with the Titans getting a back-door touchdown at the end, but Tennessee was able to do that via the help of a punt return touchdown. If we get beaten by a punt return for the millionth time this season, so be it, but I’m confident Seattle will destroy Minnesota.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This might actually be my Pick of the Month as well. I may bet the -20.5 alt line here as well.

SATURDAY NOTES: This is my November NFL Pick of the Month. Not only do we have matchup and spot edges for Seattle, we also have a big injury edge. The Vikings could be down two offensive linemen, with Donovan Jackson already being out and Christian Darrisaw barely practicing because of foot issues.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The Vikings will have Jonathan Greenard, but Christian Darrisaw is a true game-time decision.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Christian Darrisaw is out, so the Vikings will be missing the entire left side of their offensive line. The Seahawks should dominate, but maybe they’ll be like the Rams, who gave away a sure cover with dumb interceptions. The best line is Seattle -12 -105 at BetMGM. The sharps are on Seattle.

The Motivation. Edge: Seahawks.

Sam Darnold revenge.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -11.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -7.5.

Computer Model: Seahawks -12.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 52% (99,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

Seahawks are 62-49 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Seahawks are 10-17 ATS as a favorite of 6+ since 2017.

Opening Line: Seahawks -7.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 44 degrees. Light wind.