Trying to decide which players have the easiest fantasy football schedule can be taxing. For one, figuring out which teams will be good/bad is difficult. If you’re looking at an entire 16-game slate, that’s 16 times as tough. It’s also impossible to predict injuries. Everyone and their ugly stepsister had the Seahawks winning the NFC West and the Jaguars as a playoff contender a year ago.
What I like to do is project the five worst pass and run defenses, and look at which teams battle those most often. After all, it’s pretty easy to predict ineptitude (i.e. the Lions, Raiders, Browns, etc. will almost always suck).
So, here are my projected five worst pass and run defenses for 2009, and how many times every other squad has the luxury of beating up on them:
Five Worst 2009 NFL Pass Defenses
Cleveland Browns: The Browns somehow ranked just 14th in passing yardage allowed last year. However, they gave up a 7.5 YPA and managed just 17 sacks. I guess you could say they lucked out by playing Ryan Fitzpatrick instead of Carson Palmer twice.
Cleveland did nothing to improve its pass rush, and losing Sean Jones to the Eagles can’t help.
Playoff Schedule: Pittsburgh, @Kansas City, Oakland
Denver Broncos: What do you get when you take an aging veteran (Champ Bailey), and put him together with even older, washed-up players and crappy cornerbacks? Sounds like a bad reality TV show.
Unfortunately for Broncos fans, they’ll be forced to watch this crap 16 times this season. With a pedestrian pass rush – we have no idea how Elvis Dumervil and Jarvis Moss will fare in the 3-4 – opposing quarterbacks will have all the time in the world to torch Denver’s aging secondary.
Playoff Schedule: @Indianapolis, Oakland, @Philadelphia
Detroit Lions: What would a bottom five be without the Lions? Detroit did a good job adding talent to its secondary (Phillip Buchanon, Anthony Henry, Eric King, Louis Delmas), but the team has just one player who can get to the quarterback consistently (Cliff Avril). The Lions gave up a ghastly 8.8 YPA last year.
With the improvements they made, their defensive YPA could be down to 7.8, which would still be among the league’s worst.
Playoff Schedule: @Baltimore, Arizona, @San Francisco
Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs are fully capable of giving up 4,200 passing yards this year. They have a decent (but thin) secondary. However, it doesn’t matter whom you have in the defensive backfield if you can’t get any pressure on the quarterback. Kansas City had just 10 sacks last year, yet the team didn’t do anything to improve its pass rush. The elderly Mike Vrabel was brought in, but he was ineffective at best for New England in 2008. And using Tamba Hali as a rush linebacker in the 3-4? That move doesn’t have much promise.
Playoff Schedule: Buffalo, Cleveland @Cincinnati
San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers were ranked 20th in pass defense last year, but with the loss of Walt Harris, they’re really going to be hurting in 2009. The inept Dre Bly was brought in to replace Harris, which can’t be good considering that San Francisco did nothing to improve its mediocre pass rush. Oh, and Nate Clements sucked last season.
Playoff Schedule: Arizona, @Philadelphia, Detroit
A list of how many times each NFL team gets to battle these five squads:
Five Worst 2009 NFL Rush Defenses
Denver Broncos: The Broncos gave up 5.4 yards per carry to opposing running backs last year. The sad thing is they might actually be worse versus the rush in 2009. If Josh McDaniels’ goal was to make the defense as crappy as possible, he’s done a terrific job.
Playoff Schedule: @Indianapolis, Oakland, @Philadelphia
Detroit Lions: How can the Lions not be here? When your starting defensive tackles are 36 and 33 years old, you’re going to struggle against the run. Detroit made some upgrades at linebacker with Julian Peterson and Larry Foote, but teams will often be ahead of Detroit, meaning that opposing rushers will pile up tons of yardage.
Playoff Schedule: @Baltimore, Arizona, @San Francisco
Kansas City Chiefs: Crappy nose tackle? Check. A 3-4 end who’s a horrible fit at the position? Check. Two rookie 3-4 ends competing for the job? Check. Washed up starting inside linebacker who struggled with the Cowboys? Check. A new scheme for all of the players to learn? Check.
I don’t know what Kansas City’s offseason plans were, but they definitely didn’t involve improving an awful run defense.
Playoff Schedule: Buffalo, Cleveland @Cincinnati
Oakland Raiders: Oakland surrendered 4.7 yards per carry in 2008. There are two reasons why the Raiders should be ranked amongst the bottom-five rush defenses for 2009. The first is that the team has a bunch of overpaid sloths at defensive tackle. One has to wonder exactly how many virgins Al Davis was sacrificing to not address the position this offseason. Second, Oakland’s offense sucks, so teams often have leads against them. That means plenty of rushing opportunities for the opponent.
Playoff Schedule: Washington, @Denver, @Cleveland
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Buccaneers surrendered massive rushing yardage toward the end of the 2008 season. The front office subsequently cut a lot of the veterans. Now, Tampa Bay has players like Ryan Sims, Stylez G. White and Geno Hayes starting for them. The opposition is going to run right over the Buccaneers in 2009.
Playoff Schedule: NY Jets, @Seattle, @New Orleans
A list of how many times each NFL team gets to battle these five squads:
2009 Fantasy Football Easiest Schedule Analysis:
If you’re looking for an edge based solely on scheduling, bump these players up a notch in your rankings:
Be sure to check out my other 2009 Fantasy Football articles, which will include mock drafts, rankings, sleepers, busts, cheat sheets and other things.
More 2010 Fantasy Football Articles:
2010 Fantasy Football: Home
2010 Fantasy Football Rankings:
2010 Fantasy Football Playoff Rankings - 1/5 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football: Week 17 Fantasy Rankings - 1/2 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Rankings: Quarterbacks - 8/31 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Rankings: Quarterbacks - 6/6 (Steve)
2010 Fantasy Football Rankings: Running Backs - 9/6 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Rankings: Running Backs - 7/3 (Steve)
2010 Fantasy Football Rankings: Wide Receivers - 9/7 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Rankings: Wide Receivers - 7/14 (Steve)
2010 Fantasy Football Rankings: Tight Ends - 8/31 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Rankings: Tight Ends - 7/20 (Steve)
2010 Fantasy Football Rankings: Kickers - 6/10 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Rankings: Defenses - 6/11 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Auction Values - 9/2 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Rankings: IDP Defensive Linemen - 8/3 (Steve)
2010 Fantasy Football Rankings: IDP Linebackers - 8/7 (Steve)
2010 Fantasy Football Rankings: IDP Defensive Backs - 8/14 (Steve)
2010 Fantasy Football Rankings: Team-by-Team - 6/7 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Rankings: Dynasty Rookie Rankings - 4/30 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Rankings: Rookie Rankings - 4/29 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheets:
2010 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Top 150 Traditional - 9/6 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Top 150 PPR - 9/6 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Top 150 Touchdown League - 9/6 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Rankings: Downloadable Spreadsheets - 9/7 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Mock Drafts:
2010 Fantasy Football Draft: WF.com Free League - 9/7 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Draft: Real Traditional Draft - 9/1 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Draft: Real PPR Draft - 8/26 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Draft: Real PPR Draft - 8/18 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Draft: Real Experts PPR Draft - 8/12 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Experts Mock Draft - 8/12 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Draft: Pros vs. Joes - 7/28 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: PPR Draft with AKA - 7/20 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Mocking ESPN's Fantasy Mock Draft - 7/7 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: The Four-Man PPR Fantasy Draft - 7/1 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Articles:
2010 Fantasy Football Injury Reports: Week 17 - 1/2 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football: Start Em, Sit Em - 12/29 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football: Add/Drop - 12/20 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football: Stock Index - Week 8 - 10/29 (John)
2010 Fantasy Football Buffet: Week 8 - 10/28 (Steve)
2010 Fantasy Football Stock - 9/7 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Preseason Stock - 9/3 (Walt)
2010 NFL Preseason Recap, Fantasy Football Notes - 9/3 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football: High-Upside Late-Round Sleepers - 8/25 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football: Top 12 Players to Avoid - 8/25 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football: Undervalued Players - 8/13 (John)
2010 Fantasy Football: Buy Low - 8/6 (Walt)
ESPN's 2010 Fantasy Football Magazine Errors - 8/3 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football: Defense Strategy - 8/2 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football: My Round-by-Round Strategy - 7/27 (Walt)
Lack of 2010 Fantasy Depth: Blame the 2008 NFL Draft Class - 7/26 (John)
2010 Fantasy Football: Why You Should Pass on Chris Johnson - 7/14 (John)
2010 Fantasy Football: Draft Strategies - 7/13 (John)
2010 Fantasy Football: Wide Receiver Scarcity - 6/30 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Sleepers (Late-Round) - 6/2 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Sleepers (Mid-Round) - 6/1 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Busts - 5/31 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football Mailbag - 5/29 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football: Quarterbacks with New Receivers - 5/1 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football: 2010 NFL Draft Stock Up - 4/29 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football: 2010 NFL Draft Stock Down - 4/29 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football: Free Agency Stock Up - 4/15 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football: Free Agency Stock Down - 4/12 (Walt)
Running Backs with Most Carries - 4/10 (Walt)
2025 NFL Mock Draft - May 12
Fantasy Football Rankings - May 9
NFL Power Rankings - Feb. 22
NFL Picks - Feb. 12
