With four highly talented receivers joining new teams this offseason (Brandon Marshall, Anquan Boldin, Santonio Holmes and Antonio Bryant), I thought it would be important to see how quarterbacks have performed in the past with new receivers added to the squad. Would their numbers expand, or would they contract because of a potential learning curve with a new target?
Looking back since 2003, I looked at all quarterbacks who were given new receivers during the offseason, and I compared their stats before and after the acquisition.
All of these wideouts fit the following criteria:
So, here’s a glance at all of the quarterbacks with their new receiver:
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Drew Bledsoe, Cowboys with Terrell Owens Year |
Pass Yards |
TDs |
INTs |
Notes |
2005 |
3,639 |
23 |
17 |
|
2006 |
1,164* |
7* |
8* |
* – through only 6 games. As you’ll see, Drew Bledsoe is the only quarterback who didn’t improve. |
Kyle Boller, Ravens with Derrick Mason Year |
Pass Yards |
TDs |
INTs |
Notes |
2004 |
2,559 |
13 |
11 |
|
2005 |
1,799* |
11* |
12* |
* – through only 9 games. Sadly, even Kyle Boller improved with a new receiver. |
Tom Brady, Patriots with Randy Moss Year |
Pass Yards |
TDs |
INTs |
Notes |
2006 |
3,529 |
24 |
12 |
|
2007 |
4,806 |
50 |
8 |
Drew Brees, Chargers with Keenan McCardell Year |
Pass Yards |
TDs |
INTs |
Notes |
2003 |
2,108* |
11* |
15* |
* – through 11 games |
2004 |
3,159 |
27 |
7 |
Kerry Collins, Raiders with Randy Moss Year |
Pass Yards |
TDs |
INTs |
Notes |
2004 |
3,495 |
21 |
20 |
|
2005 |
3,759 |
20 |
12 |
Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks with T.J. Houshmandzadeh Year |
Pass Yards |
TDs |
INTs |
Notes |
2008 |
1,216* |
5* |
10* |
* – through only 7 games |
2009 |
3,029* |
17* |
17* |
* – through 14 games |
Eli Manning, Giants with Plaxico Burress Year |
Pass Yards |
TDs |
INTs |
Notes |
2004 |
1,043* |
6* |
9* |
* – through only 9 games |
2005 |
3,762 |
24 |
17 |
Donovan McNabb, Eagles with Terrell Owens Year |
Pass Yards |
TDs |
INTs |
Notes |
2003 |
3,216 |
16 |
11 |
|
2004 |
3,875 |
31 |
8 |
Patrick Ramsey, Redskins with Santana Moss Year |
Pass Yards |
TDs |
INTs |
Notes |
2002 |
1,539* |
9* |
8* |
* – through 11 games |
2003 |
2,166* |
14* |
9* |
* – Ramsey played only 9 games in 2003 before suffering a season-ending injury against the Dolphins. |
QB Dog Killer, Falcons with Ashley Lelie Year |
Pass Yards |
TDs |
INTs |
Notes |
2005 |
2,412 |
15 |
13 |
|
2006 |
2,472 |
20 |
13 |
According to this trend, Joe Flacco, Chad Henne, Mark Sanchez and Carson Palmer all figure to improve in 2010.
How much will they improve though? Before making any predictions, let’s take Palmer out of the equation because he might not be 100 percent and Antonio Bryant may not try hard in the wake of his new contract (Bryant has a dubious history of sucking after getting guaranteed money).
After extrapolating every quarterback’s numbers over 16 games, the 10 quarterbacks above improved by an average of:
657 yards, 9 TDs, -1.5 INTs.
Appending those numbers to each of our three quarterbacks, we would get:
Joe Flacco, Ravens with Anquan Boldin Year |
Pass Yards |
TDs |
INTs |
Notes |
2009 |
3,613 |
21 |
12 |
|
2010 |
4,272 |
30 |
11 |
Chad Henne, Dolphins with Brandon Marshall Year |
Pass Yards |
TDs |
INTs |
Notes |
2009 |
3,289* |
14* |
16* |
* – numbers expanded for a 16-game season |
2010 |
3,948 |
23 |
15 |
Mark Sanchez, Jets with Santonio Holmes Year |
Pass Yards |
TDs |
INTs |
Notes |
2009 |
2,607* |
13* |
21* |
* – numbers expanded for a 16-game season |
2010 |
3101* |
20* |
20 |
* – factored in only a 12-game improvement because of Santonio Holmes’ 4-game suspension |
Now, will I project Joe Flacco to throw for 4,200 yards and 30 touchdowns when I release my 2010 Fantasy Football Rankings? No, like Chad Henne and Mark Sanchez, Flacco won’t be asked to do too much in a run-heavy offense.
That said, I think we should expect a tremendous improvement from all three quarterbacks – all of whom will be sleepers in my Sleepers/Busts column which will come out later this month.
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