2025 NFL Picks – Week 13: Bills at Steelers

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

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BUFFALO OFFENSE: Josh Allen and Geno Smith don’t have much in common outside of the position they play professionally, but they shared a trait this past week, which is that they were both sacked into oblivion. The two combined to take 18 sacks. Somehow, they both made it out alive.

Looking at the edge-rushing matchup alone, Allen could be in danger of going down as often once again. The Steelers have a tremendous pass rush with T.J. Watt, so they’ll be able to hound Allen all afternoon unless Buffalo can get rolling with its rushing attack to keep Allen clean.

James Cook couldn’t do anything on the ground last week, but was battling Houston’s stalwart defense. Cook will have an easier time running against the Steelers. Whereas the Texans are fifth against the run, the Steelers are 27th. Cook’s expected great rushing will ensure that Allen isn’t beaten up in this game.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: There aren’t many teams worse than the Steelers when it comes to containing the run. The Bills are one of them. They’re a pathetic 30th against the run this year. Their most recent pathetic performance versus the run came when they played the Buccaneers a couple of weeks ago. Sean Tucker exploded for a huge performance in that game.

Could Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Walker do something similar? Perhaps, but there are a couple of things to keep in mind. The first is that the Bills will be better against the run in the future because Matt Milano will be healthier at some point. Milano has played recently, but hasn’t been healthy. Perhaps the mini-bye has helped him. The second thing is that the Bills won’t have to worry about the pass as much as they did versus Tampa Bay, given Pittsburgh’s poor quarterbacking situation.

It’s unclear if the Steelers will start Aaron Rodgers or Mason Rudolph. Rodgers is dealing with a non-throwing hand injury and may not be 100 percent, and it’s not like he’s effective anyway with all of his dinking and dunking. Rudolph, meanwhile, threw two interceptions last week against a horrible Chicago defense. Buffalo’s aerial defense will give him far greater problems.

RECAP: The Bills look like the correct play in this game. They’re the better team by far, and they’re coming off a loss. They’ve had plenty of time to think about their defeat from Thursday night, so we’re going to see a sharp Buffalo squad take the field. With only the Bengals on the horizon, it’s not like the Bills have anything to look ahead to, unlike the Lions last week. Allen is 15-9 against the spread off a loss, so we’re going to see him at his best in this game.

Meanwhile, Buffalo’s defense has nowhere to go but up, especially against the Steelers. Even if their run defense doesn’t make the inevitable big strides this week, they should be able to handle Pittsburgh’s offense rather well because of the quarterback issues.

Also, I think this line is way off. I made this spread Buffalo -6, yet it’s only -3.5, so we’re getting some nice value with the Bills.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m going to bump this up to three units. With DK Metcalf unlikely to play, Pittsburgh’s offense is going to be so anemic.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m switching my pick. The Bills are going to be missing both of their tackles, and Josh Allen is on the injury report with an elbow, though he has no injury designation. The question is if I’m actually going to bet the Steelers. I’m leaning yes. The sharps bet Pittsburgh at +3.5, so they should still be good at +3.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Dalton Kincaid is a game-time decision, but the Bills elevated a tight end, so that’s an indication that he could be out.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As suspected, Dalton Kincaid is out, in addition to the two Buffalo tackles. The sharps bet the Steelers at +3.5. The best line is +3 -105 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: Bills.

The Bills are the better team coming off a loss.

The Spread. Edge: Bills.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -6.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -4.5.

Computer Model: Bills -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 51% (100,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

Josh Allen is 15-9 ATS off a loss since his second season.

Sean McDermott is 10-5 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.

Mike Tomlin is 65-39 ATS as an underdog.

Aaron Rodgers is 138-103 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 33-26 ATS as an underdog.

Aaron Rodgers is 6-5 ATS as a home underdog.

Opening Line: Bills -3.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 33 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.