2025 NFL Picks – Week 12: Vikings at Packers

The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

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GREEN BAY OFFENSE: If Forrest Gump’s mom were a Packers fan, she would have told her son that life is like Jordan Love, because you never know what you’re going to get. Love can look like the best quarterback of all time with 20 consecutive completions against the Steelers, or he can resemble a complete bust by constantly throwing off his back foot.

We can at least make an educated guess with Love against the Vikings because we saw him struggle against Brian Flores’ defense twice last year. His stats in the 31-29 September loss look fine, but he struggled until garbage time, which nearly turned into an epic comeback. Love was far worse in the second meeting, when he constantly tossed passes off his back foot. As with the first matchup, he struggled early and then nearly pulled off a comeback.

Love had the services of Josh Jacobs in both of those games, but he may not have that luxury this week. Jacobs suffered a knee injury against the Giants that isn’t overly serious, but could cause him to miss this game, especially with another contest coming up in just four days. Emanuel Wilson won’t be nearly as effective versus a Vikings defense that has improved since the return of its injured linebackers.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: As bad as Love may be in this game, he’ll still be the superior quarterback when compared to J.J. McCarthy. The former Michigan was a third-round prospect at best who was a mega reach at No. 10 overall. He has played like a UDFA, with his poor pocket presence and abysmal accuracy. Carson Wentz performed better with a torn labrum.

McCarthy was woeful in an easy matchup last week, so how is he going to handle a tougher challenge? I don’t think it’ll end well for McCarthy, who will be at risk of getting benched at some point.

The Vikings’ only hope of scoring points in this game is if Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason pick up chunks of yards to make things very easy for McCarthy. They’ll have some success because the Packers are 14th against the run, but it won’t be an overly consistent method of moving the chains.

RECAP: I have no interest in this game. We can side with the Packers because they’re the better team, and we’d get to fade McCarthy in the process. However, Love has demonstrated in an inability to perform well against Flores. Also, the Packers have to battle the Lions in four days, so they could be looking past a 4-6 squad.

So, do we take the Vikings? Perhaps for no units, but I can’t bet on them. McCarthy is a disaster. That said, he managed to cover the spread against the Lions as a large underdog, so perhaps he’ll do something similar in this matchup.

The Motivation. Edge: Packers.

The Packers take on the Lions in four days.

The Spread. Edge: Packers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -8.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -6.5.

Computer Model: Packers -9.

The Vegas. Edge: Packers.

Bets are coming in on the Vikings for some reason.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 69% (5,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

History: Teams have split 4 of the past 5 years.

Packers are 68-45 ATS in divisional games since 2006.

Matt LaFleur is 61-47 ATS in the regular season.

Opening Line: Packers -5.5.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: .