2025 NFL Picks – Week 12: Giants at Lions

The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s something from Twitter:

It’s true. Counting the vig, he would have been down. No wonder he’s so mad!

Many of you may have seen DEI reporter Josina Anderson tweet storm on Sunday. All she did was tweet about Shedeur Sanders and make excuses for him. Someone you guys know texted me, “Is Josina Anderson sleeping with Deion?”

Check out Anderson’s idiotic posts if you get the chance. I did, and I replied to her:

She quickly blocked me. I was initially shocked that a brain-damaged individual like Anderson knew where the block button was, but now I’m wondering if she even knew what “imbecile” meant.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: As of Tuesday afternoon, we don’t have a firm update on Jaxson Dart. The current status of New York’s starting quarterback is that he’s still in concussion protocol, but the coaching staff is confident that he’ll be available. This doesn’t mean much, however, because if I had a nickel for every time I heard someone be confident about a player’s or their status, and then the player in question would miss the game, I’d have a s**t ton of nickels.

Dart’s availability is obviously paramount in handicapping this game. He’s so explosive with his legs that he fundamentally changes the offense when he’s on the field as opposed to Jameis Winston. Granted, Winston kept the Giants close against the Packers last week, but he was very fortunate that he wasn’t intercepted on numerous occasions.

Dart likely won’t have as many potential turnovers despite battling a tough defense because the Lions, despite ranking second in defense, aren’t very good against the run. They also tend to struggle against scrambling quarterbacks.

DETROIT OFFENSE: While the Lions aren’t very good against the run this season, they’re basically the ’85 Bears when it comes to the Giants. New York has been gashed by opposing ground attacks most weeks this season. They rank 31st against the rush.

This is obviously very problematic against the Lions. Jahmyr Gibbs had a big game last week despite battling a stout Philadelphia defense that is second versus the rush. He’s such a dynamic player, and it seems as though Dan Campbell is making sure he’s getting the ball in more favorable situations compared to when Johnnie Morton was calling the plays. I trust Campbell to feed Gibbs the ball often enough to debacle the Giants’ rush defense.

Jared Goff will need Gibbs and David Montgomery to go off because the Giants can bring ample pressure. Goff tends to struggle when opposing teams can place tons of heat on him, as we saw in his loss at Philadelphia. The Giants have quality edge rushers, but Campbell can shield his quarterback from harm by giving him easy down-and-distance situations in this otherwise favorable matchup.

RECAP: It’s impossible to give you a concrete selection just yet because we don’t know Dart’s status. Either way, however, I will be on the Lions. Dart’s availability will only affect the unit size.

If Dart is out, this will be easy. Winston won’t get away with so many potential interceptions this week. The Lions bring loads of pressure and will be able to rattle the veteran quarterback. Their rushing attack, meanwhile, will trample the Giants and force Winston into obvious throwing situations, which will make matters worse. And not only do the Lions possess the matchup edge; they will be looking to rebound off an embarrassing loss on national TV. Dan Campbell is 14-4 against the spread after a defeat since his second season. Detroit will be a big play with Winston starting.

If Dart gets the nod, I’ll still like the Lions, but for a lesser unit count. Dart probably won’t be an interception machine, but he’ll still be coming back from a concussion. Quarterbacks tend to play poorly in their first game off a concussion. It’s not a guarantee that Dart will perform similarly, but he’d still be very difficult to trust in that situation, especially against the league’s No. 2 defense. Plus, with Dart on the field, we’ll be able to back the Lions with a more favorable point spread.

The Motivation. Edge: Lions.

The Lions are coming off an embarrassing loss on national TV.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -11.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -11.5.

Computer Model: Lions -10.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.

Decent action on the Lions.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 68% (7,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

Dan Campbell is 14-4 ATS after a loss since his second season.

Lions are 9-11 ATS before their Thanksgiving game since 2005.

Opening Line: Lions -9.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.