2025 NFL Picks – Week 12: Jets at Ravens

The Matchup. Edge: Ravens.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were: 34-42 in 2020, 48-37 in 2021, 32-35-1 in 2022, 31-27 ATS in 2023, and 49-45 in 2024. The public was 15-29 heading into Week 11.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Ravens -7.5

Cowboys -3.5

Lions +2.5

Packers -7

Seahawks +3

Chargers -3

The public went 1-4 in Week 1, 1-3 in Week 2, 0-3 in Week 3, 1-4 in Week 4, 1-3 in Week 5, and 1-3 in Week 6. The public finally had a winning week in Week 7, going 2-1. As for Week 8, the public was an even 3-3. It also went 3-3 in Week 9 and then 2-2 in Week 10. In Week 11, the public continued to lose, going 2-3-1.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Browns +3.5

Bills -5.5

Steelers +3

Eagles -3.5

Only the Browns are surprising. Who’s betting on them, Josina Anderson on thousands of accounts?

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens-Browns game was tilting last week because we bet Baltimore -7.5, yet the Browns scored 13 points on special teams and defense. The Ravens failed to cover by half a point, so the game was extremely frustrating. Part of the horrible experience was watching Lamar Jackson struggle through an injury. Jackson was dealing with some sort of knee issue throughout the week, and it clearly affected him because he scrambled only twice and wasn’t overly effective as a passer.

There’s no telling when Jackson will be 100 percent. It could be this week. If so, he’ll be able to run circles around the Jets’ hapless defense. New York’s secondary has taken some hits with its traded cornerbacks, so Jackson’s receivers won’t have any issues getting open.

The Ravens should at least be able to run the ball effectively on the Jets. New York’s run defense is ranked 19th for the entire year, and most of those games were with Quinnen Williams. The Jets figure to be worse against the run without the stud defensive tackle.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Jets don’t have an injured quarterback, but they’ve decided to make a change at the position. Despite Justin Fields leading the team to their only two victories of the season in the past three games, Aaron Glenn has decided to go with Tyrod Taylor.

Taylor is a middling backup, but he doesn’t possess the upside of Fields. While Fields is a poor passer, he can at least escape pressure. That could be the only way to beat the Ravens, who have been ranked second in defensive EPA since all of the starters returned from injury following the Week 7 bye. Taylor can be more accurate than Fields, but he won’t be able to do anything more than dink and dunk against Baltimore’s healthy defense.

The Ravens have made the most improvements to their ability to stop the run. They were constantly gashed prior to the bye, but are now ranked in the top 10 of rush defense since Week 8. They’ve put the clamps on De’Von Achane and the Chicago duo, so they shouldn’t have issues containing Breece Hall, especially when considering that they’ll be able to play closer to the line of scrimmage because of Taylor’s inability to beat anyone deep.

RECAP: I promise I’ll have plenty of bets this week, but this is yet another zero-unit selection. Both sides seem unappealing. On one hand, I don’t want to back the Jets because they are trash, and I’m not sure the players will be too enthused with the quarterback change, considering that Fields has been responsible for two wins in the past three games. It’s not like Fields played poorly against the Patriots. The players have to know that their coach, front office, and ownership aren’t putting them in the best position to win. Players don’t often quit for a long period of time because they are basically mercs playing for paychecks, but they can quit for one game in these circumstances.

On the other hand, it’s hard to lay two touchdowns with a team that has an injured quarterback. There’s a chance Jackson will be 100 percent by kickoff, but we don’t know that. I’d like to see Jackson scramble effectively before backing him, especially as a large favorite. Also, the Ravens have to play on Thanksgiving night against a divisional rival, so there could be a look-ahead factor after four consecutive victories.

I don’t really want to side with the stupid Jets, so I’m going to back the Ravens for no units.

The Motivation. Edge: Jets.

The Ravens play against the Bengals in four days.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -11.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -14.5.

Computer Model: Ravens -13.

The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.

Slight lean on the Ravens.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 62% (4,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

Lamar Jackson is 11-3 ATS as a favorite of 10+.

Opening Line: Ravens -14.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: .