2025 NFL Picks – Week 11: Buccaneers at Bills

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s a thread from ESPN DEI hire Pabo Torre:

Talk about “didn’t earn it.” Naturally, I got a response for my reply to Pablo:

I’m sure Mo is a DEI hire for whomever he works for. He also has the mentality of a 12-year-old girl because he blocked me, so I couldn’t even respond to his final reply to me. What a dweeb!

Here’s something from one of our YouTube videos:

I have no idea what this means. What we can understand is Chuckwaggun’s mom took tons of Tylenol – even more so than Mo’s mom.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: It wasn’t surprising to see Buffalo’s defense struggle last week. The unit was down several starters, including its top two cornerbacks. The offense, on the other hand, was a big disappointment with some sloppy turnovers.

The Bills should be able to rebound from their defeat, though this matchup isn’t a particularly easy one. The Buccaneers generate the third-most pressures in the NFL, and they also handle mobile quarterbacks rather well. They have some issues in the secondary, however, as we saw last week when Drake Maye exploited some liabilities. Allen should be able to do the same, though it’s worth noting that he may not have the services of Dalton Kincaid, who suffered an injury last week.

I would have ordinarily listed the Buccaneers’ run defense as a strength, but for some reason, Tampa Bay has been much weaker to ground attacks this past month. TreVeyon Henderson’s runs of 69 and 55 yard were not fluky; the Buccaneers are now 17th versus the rush, so James Cook could have a big game.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: As mentioned, the Bills had some serious injuries last week. They were down their top two cornerbacks and two defensive linemen. Furthermore, top linebacker Matt Milano played, but he has really struggled this year because he hasn’t been healthy. The result was the Dolphins doing whatever they pleased against Buffalo.

There’s a good chance the Bills will have some of their injured players back this week. They’ll need one of their cornerbacks to have a good chance of containing Baker Mayfield’s injury-ravaged receiver group. Beyond Emeka Egbuka, there’s just Tez Johnson, and that’s about it, so unless the Bills are down both corners again, they’ll be able to limit Mayfield with the help of their decent pressure rate.

The Bills are much weaker to the run than the pass, but there’s some hope for them in this regard. First of all, the Buccaneers don’t rush the ball all that well with Bucky Irving sidelined. Second, there’s a chance the Bills will be healthier here as well. Milano will snap out of his funk at some point, while DaQuan Jones will be another week removed from his injury.

RECAP: The Bills were in an obvious flat spot last week. Now that they’re coming off a loss, I suspect we’ll see a much better effort from them this week, which should coincide with some of their key players returning from injury. The results speak for themselves, after all. Since his second season, when he took a big leap from his pedestrian rookie campaign, Allen is 14-9 against the spread off a loss. Great quarterbacks tend to bounce back from defeats rather well.

Meanwhile, the Buccaneers figure to struggle against another top opponent. They have a nice record at 6-3, but they’ve performed poorly whenever stepping up in class. They were blown out by the Eagles until garbage time, and they also lost to the Lions by double digits. A year ago, they were crushed by the Ravens on Monday Night Football. The Buccaneers have had many chances to defeat these Group A teams, and they’ve failed every time.

The Bills look great this week. The advance spread was -6, and my calculated line is -8.5, yet we’re getting them at -5.5. Provided some of their players return from injury, the Bills will be a multi-unit bet for us.

The Motivation. Edge: Bills.

The Bills are coming off an embarrassing loss.

The Spread. Edge: Bills.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -8.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -6.

Computer Model: Bills -4.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

Slight lean on the Buccaneers.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 62% (5,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

Road Team is 149-101 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Josh Allen is 14-9 ATS off a loss since his second season.

Bills are 15-39 ATS after playing the Miami Dolphins since 1998.

Sean McDermott is 5-9 ATS after coming off a loss.

Opening Line: Bills -6.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: .