2025 NFL Picks – Week 11: Redskins at Dolphins

The Matchup. Edge: None.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

BOYCOTT GAME: I will be boycotting this game, and I urge all of you to do the same. When the NFL had one game in Europe and played it at 1 p.m. Eastern, I was fine with it. Two games began pushing it, and then three games were unacceptable. Now, there are seven European games, and they all begin at 6:30 a.m. on the West Coast, which absolutely screws everyone living in that time zone. Football needs to be in America; not Europe. The NFL needs to go back to just one European game. Tell Roger Goodell to f**k off and buy this Make Football American Again t-shirt:

MIAMI OFFENSE: Who would have thought that the main problem with the Dolphins’ offense was just Chris Grier all along? Firing Grier seemingly fixed all of Miami’s problems, as the team was able to generate offense very easily against the Bills.

All kidding aside, the Dolphins put forth a nice showing, but it was obvious that the main catalyst behind this was Buffalo’s severe lack of energy following the victory over the Chiefs. It also doesn’t help that the Bills struggle to defend the middle of the field as a result of injuries to Matt Milano and their defensive tackles. The Redskins are also poor versus the run – they rank 28th against it – and will be even worse because of DaRon Payne’s suspension as a result of his idiotic punch. De’Von Achane shouldn’t have any issues bursting for some big gains.

Tua Tagovailoa will obviously benefit from this, but he, as always, will come with a huge downside. Tagovailoa is inept and isn’t protected well. The Redskins had the pass rush earlier in the year to take advantage of this, but that is no longer the case because of injuries. Still, I don’t trust Tagovailoa to successfully attack a Washington secondary that is ravaged by other injured personnel.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Speaking of incompetent quarterbacks, Marcus Mariota had a rough outing last week. This was predictable because he was set to battle a top-three NFL defense. Mariota had shown some solid flashes earlier in the year, particularly in his victory over the Raiders, but backup quarterbacks tend to struggle against top-10 defenses, and last week’s blowout loss was a classic example of that.

Mariota will have a reprieve from the Seahawks and the Lions of the NFL world because he’ll be matched up against the Dolphins and their 26th-ranked defense. It’s possible that Miami will be ranked worse than 26th in a few weeks because they lost Jaelan Phillips, who accounted for 24 percent of their pressures. Miami couldn’t even get to the quarterback consistently with Phillips, so how are they going to do that without him?

Mariota will have much more time to throw in this game, so he’ll be able to connect early and often to Deebo Samuel and Zach Ertz. Mariota, conversely, won’t be able to lean on Jacory Croskey-Merritt because Miami is a surprising sixth against the run.

RECAP: My rule for international games is the same as the one I have for Thursday games: Back the superior team as long as they’re focused. The reason for this is that the inferior team won’t have the adequate preparation time it needs to overcome a difficult opponent.

Unfortunately, both of these teams are garbage. They’re both located in Group F of my NFL Power Rankings. Sure, the Dolphins beat the Bills last week, but that was solely because Buffalo was a complete no-show. If anything, that’s a good reason to fade the Dolphins because bad teams tend to perform poorly off a victory, but doing so would require betting the Redskins on an international stage, which I’m not comfortable doing.

Given that both of these teams suck, and it’s not clear how either will perform overseas, this game is a stay-away. Gun to my head, I’d take the Redskins because of the line movement from the advance spread, but I’m nowhere near betting this game, boycott or not.

The Motivation. Edge: Redskins.

The Dolphins are a horrible team coming off a win.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Redskins -1.5.

Computer Model: Dolphins -3.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Slight lean on the Dolphins.

Percentage of money on Miami: 62% (5,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: .