2025 NFL Picks – Week 7: Texans at Seahawks

The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Seattle, home of stupid people who drink coffee, which Mother says is the devil, and if you drink it, you’ll have seven years of bad luck. Same bad luck you get when you see a girl naked! Tonight, the Houston Rockets take on the Seattle Seabirdpoops. Guys, last week I made a great joke by calling the Redskins the Foreskins. Now, I’m calling the Seattle Seagulls the Seabirdpoops, which is a great nickname.

Emmitt: Thanks, Nick. I think it a real coincidencidenciness that your name Nick and you always coming up with nickname, which probably only thing that people name Nick can comed up with.

Reilly: Emmitt, you know, it’s very hurtful that we’ve been working togther for 15 years now, and yet you keep calling me by the wrong name. You called me Korean names for an entire year! Can you please start calling me by my real name before I get Mother to make a complain to HR about you?

Tollefson: Reilly, get over yourself. Who cares if someone calls you by your correct name? I always call my kidnapped slave women by their wrong name when I address them as they’re chained in my cellar. For example, if there’s a girl named Sandy, I’ll call her either Cindy or Mindy. All these kidnapped slave women do is continue to cry, which is very selfish of them. You’d think they’d thank me for acknowledging them, but they never do. The nerve!

Reilly: Tolly, Mother says that women are the devil, so if that’s true – and Mother has never been wrong about anything – then that would explain why they are being so rude to you. What do you think about this? Why are women being so ungrateful to Tolly?

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Sandy. I heard someone say something about grates. I have breaking news tonight that Marshawn Lynch has signed a new advertising contract to promote grates. Marshawn is set to make $8 million from this new deal. Back to you, guys.

Reilly: Wait a second. People actually make money from advertising for companies? When did this happen!? I got an ad contract from a local Philadelphia Mazda dealership because I’m such a great announcer, and they’ve been paying me in Nick Foles bobbleheads. If I were paid in millions, I could buy even more Nick Foles bobbleheads! Mina Klein, you look like you want to say something.

Mina Kimes: I think this is yet another instance of me being oppressed because I’m an Asian female analyst. Why has no one ever made a bobblehead of me? Doesn’t everyone know that I’m a great Asian female NFL analyst? I’ve said gems on this very pregame show like Geno Smith is a top-one NFL quarterback. Who could possibly give you NFL analysis like that? If everyone appreciated me, I’d have the No. 1-selling bobblehead, but of course, I don’t because I’m oppressed and don’t have my own bobblehead because everyone hates Asian female NFL analysts who are the only people who can tell you how great Geno Smith is.

Reilly: Do you really think Geno Smith is a top quarterback in the NFL? Do you think your bias as a Seahawks fan might be showing? Not that I’d know anything about fandom bias because I’m not biased at all about my Philadelphia Eagles.

Sarah Spain: EX-CA-USE ME! ARE YOU QUESTIONING THE GREAT ANALYSIS OF MY ASIAN FEMALE FOOTBALL ANALYST FRIEND!? NO ONE CAN DARE QUESTION THE WISDOM OF AN ASIAN FEMALE NFL ANALYST, AND NO ONE CAN QUESTION ME, A FEMALE SPORTS ANALYST, BECAUSE ALL YOU’RE DOING IS OPPRESSING US, REEEEEEE!!!

Reilly: Guys, I don’t mean to interrupt your ranting, but we have another letter from a transfan.

Olivebranch: My name is Olivebranch, and I was born a Ravens fan and then when I had jersey surgery, I became a Jaguars fan. I need to say that it’s very offensive that the Nick Reilly guy said that people can’t be trans fans. What am I, invisible to you? If Nick Reilly doesn’t apologize, I will steal my dad’s war hammer and begin bashing innocent nursing home patients in the head just to prove that I’m a good person who happens to be oppressed like the female football analysts you have on your broadcast! Apologize, Nick Reilly, or the old people will meet their fate.

Reilly: Joke’s on you because I don’t care about old people, except Mother, and she’s not in a nursing home! Besides, I have New Daddy to protect her, and me. Right, New Daddy?

Jay Cutler: Nah, if one of these psychos comes for you, I’m out.

Reilly: I know you’re joking, New Daddy!

Charles Davis: Kevin, it sounds like you’re talking about jokes, Kevin. Let’s discuss different types of jokes, Kevin. We can begin with knock-knock jokes, Kevin. What about a play on words, Kevin? Let’s not forget racist jokes, Kevin. Let’s transition to political jokes, Kevin. Don’t forget about bar jokes, Kevin. How about some dark humour jokes, Kevin. An obvious one is a dad joke, Kevin. Why not touch on blonde jokes, Kevin? Not that you’d ever touch a blonde, Kevin. And, of course, there’s the biggest joke of all, Kevin, which is Kevin, Kevin.

Reilly: Yeah, right! You’re the biggest joke, Charles Davis, because Mother is a blonde, and I’ve touched her!Aand if you’re not careful, I’m going to get that war hammer and come after you! We’ll be back right after this!

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans have struggled so much on offense this season that it was shocking to see them score so often against the Ravens. That’s how bad Baltimore’s defense has been – it couldn’t even stop a Houston offense that has barely been functional as a result of horrendous offensive line play.

Things should get back to normal in this game. The Seahawks have the No. 9 defense in the NFL. Their pass rush is terrific. They’ll be able to hound C.J. Stroud and force him into some mistakes. If Stroud were protected well, he’d be able to expose some injuries in Seattle’s secondary, but I don’t believe he’ll have enough support from his offensive line.

The Seahawks will really be able to get after Stroud because there won’t be any sort of Houston rushing attack. The Texans foolishly went back to Nick Chubb after Woody Marks’ explosion against Tennessee. Chubb is decrepit and won’t have a chance against Seattle’s No. 5 rush defense.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: While the Seahawks are ninth in defense, the Texans are 10th. They’re similarly talented on the defensive side of the ball, so those numbers indicate that this should be a low-scoring affair.

I don’t think that will be the outcome, however. While the Texans are terrific against the pass, they’re not nearly as strong versus the run. They’re a weak 21st against the run, which doesn’t bode well against the Seahawks. Seattle wants to pound the ball so much that the previous offensive coordinator was fired for not running enough. Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet should be able to generate ample rushing yardage to give Sam Darnold a chance versus Houston’s fierce pass rush.

Darnold, by the way, has been the subject of some MVP chatter. I find this to be absurd because I’d say Jaxon Smith-Njigba is more valuable than Darnold, but we’ll find out what the duo can do against Houston’s elite pass defense.

RECAP: I really like the Seahawks in this matchup. I believe them to be markedly better than the Texans, yet the spread doesn’t reflect that. The Texans are very flawed in that they can’t block at all. They also have a one-dimensional offense, which shouldn’t be too difficult for Seattle’s defense to diagnose.

Beyond that, the Seahawks have an immense home-field advantage in this game. I’m not really referring to Seattle’s stadium. Rather than where, it’s all about the when. This is a 10 p.m. start time, so Circadian rhythms will play a huge role in deciding this contest. This is a very late game for the Texans, while the Seattle body clocks are optimized for this sort of start time.

It’s a very small sample size, but there have been three NFL games featuring teams from the Eastern or Central time zones playing a road game on the West Coast at 10 p.m. or later. None of those three teams covered the spread.

The Motivation. Edge: Seahawks.

The Texans are playing in a very late start time.

The Spread. Edge: Seahawks.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -2.5.

Computer Model: Seahawks -7.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

Decent action on the Seahawks.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 73% (7,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

Seahawks are 61-49 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Opening Line: Seahawks -2.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: .